TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico

[srainhoutx]

Latest...

[srainhoutx]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 22:02Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Tropical Depression: Number 5 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 16th day of the month at 21:27:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29°27'N 87°13'W (29.45N 87.2167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 68 miles (110 km) to the S (180°) from Pensacola, FL, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 25kts (~ 28.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) to the SSE (155°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 253° at 24kts (From the WSW at ~ 27.6mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the SSE (155°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 303m (994ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 306m (1,004ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 23°C (73°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 26kts (~ 29.9mph) in the south quadrant at 20:29:30Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet

[wxman57]

Take a look at this shot. It may be finally dying. Its only "hope" now may be if the center could somehow reform near or under that convection to the southwest. Note the westerly winds north of that convection, though. That vortex message came in after I placed the red crosshairs.

[desiredwxgd]

"May" be dying but the pressure did drop 1 mb

[desiredwxgd]

Sure isn't in a hurry to go anywhere.

[wxman57]

"May" be dying but the pressure did drop 1 mb

That's not unexpected for this time of day.

[biggerbyte]

According to KMOB radar, the llc is moving westward, maybe wnw. I'm reading on another board that it is moving north, maybe ne. Go figure on that one. Somebody is seeing things.

[wxman57]

The latest vortex put the center all the way up near 29.5N after being near 29N all day. It's clearly falling apart now. There isn't much left of the LLC. But it did move north-northwestward as it got spit out from the convection.

Here's the latest satellite with surface obs. Just a remnant remnant low now:

[srainhoutx]

No upgrade, but stays at 60%...

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MOBILE BAY...AND ABOUT
90 MILES EAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. THERE REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

[gregco31]

it seems as if the center doesn't really want to cooperate what center is left. So the question becomes where is all this convection to the southwest headed, who is it going to be a rainmaker for, and does it have the chance to become something of it's own?

[biggerbyte]

I laugh at what I'm reading here and there, especially on other boards. Many have already written this off, when in fact it is not even onshore yet, and there is still speculation about what happens from here. There is still this notion about moving north, when in fact it is in no hurry to go anywhere right now. One might could say drifting west, or wnw. Do we need to spank the cliche monkey again????

Lastly, i'd watch all of the activity away from the llc, especially that which is offshore, south of LA...

[desiredwxgd]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...REMNANTS OF T.D. FIVE...IS
LOCATED 80 NM SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA NEAR 29N87W. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE SYSTEM COVERING MOST OF THE NORTHERN GULF N OF
25N W OF 85W ADVECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES...WHERE STRONG
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA MOVING WITH
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST.
THERE REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON
TUESDAY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

[wxman57]

It's quite clear there is no circulation forming south of Louisiana. The LLC is definitely moving northward toward the FL/AL border. There's a very weak remnant circulation now, and that may not be present much longer. Chances of TS development are close to zero now. Even the squalls south of Louisiana are falling apart.

[svrwx0503]

It's quite clear there is no circulation forming south of Louisiana. The LLC is definitely moving northward toward the FL/AL border.

Yeah, you can pretty easily see in the latest IR loops, the convection getting blown off to the southwest exposing the center, then see the center continue off to the NNW and weaken.

[biggerbyte]

Yes, all of the activity offshore is going away, as is the llc. Sorry newbies. Like the other folks say, this event is over. It's all dead and will remain so. You guys can thank wxman, and a few others, for closing the door on td5.

Next!!!!

[srainhoutx]

Nasty night in New Orleans...

[biggerbyte]

Lol

Yeppers!

[biggerbyte]

Steve, take a look at KMOB radar and look at the rotation, and the activity off to it's west. Look at the direction it is taking.

[biggerbyte]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... c/dlm1.GIF

[svrwx0503]

Low now inland across southeast Louisiana with models continuing to keep it east of southeast Texas with very little influence on our local weather other than helping keep some tropical moisture in place the next couple of days.