Ed Mahmoud wrote:I should get to drive through post landfall rainbands going to New Orleans Friday with Mrs. M for a mini-vacation as she prepares to go back to her teaching job.
Not exactly I-Cyclone stuff, but my wife knows how to use her cell phone camera, if we see any tropical funnels or anything I'll try to download when we get back.
I am in Destin Florida until Saturday so I will continue to post posts updating what is going on around here when the storm comes in. I don't expect more than rain and gusty winds but if things change I will make sure to inform you all and take pictures. I am on the beach so things should be a little more intense but still I am not expecting too much (except for some nice waves to ride) but like you Ed I will be driving back in the post landfall storm.
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Redfish, there are a few outcomes with this system, both short, and long term, and any of them are a possibility. We should be able to narrow down the short term by Wednesday night. As said many times before, when you have a system already in the Gulf, you have to just watch it until it is onshore and dead. Then, and only then, is the final outcome certain. To answer your question... Yes! But you can add some folks east of LA to the mix as well. LA is the focus right now.
Thanks to all the different views and comments here - I called about our vacation - the latest I can cancel is Thursday morning - so I'm monitoring it until then but I think the area of Kinder LA is going to be under the gun either by TS effects or rain. I am sad I have to cancel vacation but that's the way it goes.....the kids are more upset then anything!
000
WTNT35 KNHC 110232
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010
...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 84.2W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE
WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
redfish1 wrote:it looks to be moving west at the moment does anyone agree?
For the most part it looks nearly stationary and the center is so broad that it is really too early to pick up movement. Once convection really gets going over the center we will then be able to know which direction it is moving.
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:Movement, hard to tell for certain, but I think NW based on radar, and current path, which may not hold, is Florida.
Pro-mets arguing about whether this is a TD ot STD, or neither, on Eastern forum. We only have, what, 3 pro-mets, and they never argue. We need more pro-mets, nothing as cool as pro-mets arguing.
Invite them over here. We are a great forum always looking for new members and pro's. I am sure they would like the atmosphere over here.
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sleetstorm wrote:T.D. 5 looks like it is stationary to me.
I agree and like AFM said the low is so large that wherever convection grows and sticks will most likely determine the track. If the center forms to the far west then the track will be a lot farther west but if forms to the east it will be farther east.
On another note there is a lack of convection currently but there does seem to be some blowup around the center currently. We will have to wait and watch to see if it sticks but the ULL is moving out to the west so development should be steadier in the coming days.
Ed Mahmoud wrote:TD #05L looking like it may never become 'Danielle' to me...
I think it is a little to early to say that especially with new convection starting to form and conditions for development improving, but it defiantly isn't at its greatest now.
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Nothing to look at tonight, folks. Td5 has choked for now. We'll see how it looks Wednesday afternoon.
This is another prime example in weather that things change from day to day, and nothing is certain. No one saw this fizzle, temporary, or not, coming. The forces to be could let up and allow a regen. We'll see. Not giving up yet, but tonight is clear sailing.
