TD 5 Gulf Of Mexico

[Rip76]

Back up....

70% now btw

[srainhoutx]

18Z Best Track...looks W to WNW to me...

Code: Select all

AL, 94, 2010081018, , BEST, 0, 258N, 837W, 25, 1009, LO

Code: Select all

021 
WHXX01 KWBC 101823
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1823 UTC TUE AUG 10 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100810 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100810  1800   100811  0600   100811  1800   100812  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    25.8N  83.7W   26.5N  85.3W   27.4N  87.0W   28.1N  88.5W
BAMD    25.8N  83.7W   26.4N  85.5W   27.5N  87.6W   28.7N  89.5W
BAMM    25.8N  83.7W   26.5N  85.4W   27.7N  87.1W   28.7N  88.6W
LBAR    25.8N  83.7W   26.0N  85.1W   26.6N  86.7W   27.4N  88.3W
SHIP        25KTS          26KTS          30KTS          34KTS
DSHP        25KTS          26KTS          30KTS          34KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100812  1800   100813  1800   100814  1800   100815  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    29.1N  89.8W   31.1N  92.1W   33.9N  93.4W   34.5N  93.7W
BAMD    29.8N  91.1W   31.9N  92.6W   34.4N  90.8W   35.5N  86.0W
BAMM    29.8N  89.8W   31.9N  90.8W   34.2N  89.1W   34.5N  85.9W
LBAR    28.0N  89.7W   29.5N  91.8W   31.5N  92.6W   33.4N  90.9W
SHIP        40KTS          48KTS          56KTS          58KTS
DSHP        34KTS          28KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  25.8N LONCUR =  83.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   3KT
LATM12 =  25.5N LONM12 =  82.7W DIRM12 = 255DEG SPDM12 =   2KT
LATM24 =  25.9N LONM24 =  82.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$

[Rip76]

Looks like we're out of the woods for now...

From what i'm seeing.

Models moved east...

[srainhoutx]

The Upper Low (29N/84W) is about due N of the apparent circulation center now. Should be interesting to see if this will assist in wrapping this system up.

[srainhoutx]

RECON is still investigating. No vortex message as of yet.

[AndrewLozeau]

Whats the latest info from the Reconisiance airplane?

[AndrewLozeau]

Thank yo so Much Ed! So nice of you! Keep me posted on what they find!

[srainhoutx]

Slowly coming together...hopefully the hotlink want crash the site...

[srainhoutx]

Looking at some other radar data, I suspect the overall motion is WNW. The Mid Level Circulation is moving out to the NW and that may be what you're seeing Ed.

[wxman57]

Yes, that's a mid-level rotation on radar. Models are actually forecasting a bit of a NW motion initially then WNW then a northward turn into SE LA. I think there's a significantly better chance of landfall in MS or AL than over into SW LA or the upper TX coast. Should be Danielle tomorrow.

[biggerbyte]

The LLC is actually moving westerly to southwesterly. It is the MLC that we see on radar moving with a northerly component. Overall motion has not changed. West to wnw it goes, be it very slowly. The ridge is going to be the key here. Will the trough pick it up, or not. Time will tell, and we are not guaranteed anything as of this writing.

[srainhoutx]

18Z Best Track...looks W to WNW to me...

Code: Select all

AL, 94, 2010081018, , BEST, 0, 258N, 837W, 25, 1009, LO

FTP Updated 18Z...Adjustment a bit SW

Code: Select all

AL, 94, 2010081018,   , BEST,   0, 257N,  839W,  25, 1009, LO,

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2209 UTC TUE AUG 10 2010
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942010) 20100810 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        100810  1800   100811  0600   100811  1800   100812  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    25.7N  83.9W   26.4N  85.3W   27.5N  86.8W   28.3N  88.0W
BAMD    25.7N  83.9W   26.5N  85.5W   27.6N  87.4W   28.8N  89.2W
BAMM    25.7N  83.9W   26.5N  85.4W   27.7N  87.1W   28.8N  88.5W
LBAR    25.7N  83.9W   26.0N  85.3W   26.7N  87.0W   27.5N  88.6W
SHIP        25KTS          26KTS          30KTS          34KTS
DSHP        25KTS          26KTS          30KTS          34KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        100812  1800   100813  1800   100814  1800   100815  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    29.5N  88.9W   31.6N  89.9W   34.2N  88.8W   34.3N  87.1W
BAMD    29.9N  90.7W   32.1N  92.6W   35.1N  91.8W   38.3N  84.4W
BAMM    29.9N  89.6W   32.1N  90.4W   34.6N  88.7W   35.5N  84.9W
LBAR    28.2N  90.0W   29.8N  92.1W   31.9N  92.6W   34.0N  90.6W
SHIP        40KTS          50KTS          61KTS          62KTS
DSHP        35KTS          28KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  25.7N LONCUR =  83.9W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR =   4KT
LATM12 =  25.5N LONM12 =  83.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =   4KT
LATM24 =  25.9N LONM24 =  82.5W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 

[srainhoutx]

Looks like we have a Tropical Depression...

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al942010_al052010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008102235
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[gocuse22]

Welcome Tropical Depression 5

[redfish1]

does anyone think we are out of the woods or is it possible the models will shift west?

[Ptarmigan]

The NHC has not declared 94L has TD5 yet.

[Bluefalcon]

View of the Gulf: http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/assets/publ ... atest.jpeg

[djjordan]

I think TD 5's track by the NHC is right on. I do not see this track moving westward over time. As always with tropical systems it's always a good idea to keep an eye on it until it is well inland and dissipated.

[srainhoutx]

Keeping it "official"...

000
WTNT35 KNHC 102336
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
730 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 730 PM EDT...2330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 84.1W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 730 PM EDT...2330 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO BY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[tireman4]

I think TD 5's track by the NHC is right on. I do not see this track moving westward over time. As always with tropical systems it's always a good idea to keep an eye on it until it is well inland and dissipated.

Dr Neil Frank would say this over and over and over!!!