Tropical Depression Bonnie forms 5:15 PM 7/22/2010

[sambucol]

Does Bonnie have a chance of reorganizing and strengthening once in the GOM or is it going to move fast to landfall? Any chance of a direction change?

[sleetstorm]

Hey, is it just me or do it look like Bonnie is moving more to the west? I tell you one thing, those tropical showes and thunderstorms are being very easily sheared via the strong south/southeast winds.

[srainhoutx]

Track looks fairly straight forward according to NHC...

000
WTNT43 KNHC 232032
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT BONNIE HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
THE CENTER IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN AREA OF SHAPELESS DEEP
CONVECTION. GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS.
THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING MAINLY DUE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS WHICH BRING THE WINDS UP A
LITTLE BIT...NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE RESTRENGTHENS BONNIE IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. BASED ON CONTINUITY AND THE STATISTICAL
MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
BEFORE THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...DEGENERATION INTO AN OPEN TROUGH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE CENTER OF BONNIE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY CROSSING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ABOUT 300 DEGREES OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. BONNIE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WELL-DEFINED
STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...KEEPING
BONNIE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.IF
BONNIE SURVIVES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN
THE CURRENT FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. SINCE THE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE WELL DEFINED AND THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
THERE IS A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 26.2N 81.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 27.5N 84.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 29.0N 87.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 30.5N 90.0W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 25/1800Z 31.5N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 26/1800Z 33.5N 93.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[redfish1]

i dont know why but i still think this system is going to go farther west then what the models are showing

[srainhoutx]

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...
27 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND REACH THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. BONNIE COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE BONNIE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

[Bluefalcon]

Bedtime for Bonnie. http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/assets/publ ... atest.jpeg

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like Bonnie will likely be a tropical storm at most.

[redfish1]

if it slows down will the ridge build back in?

[srainhoutx]

Bedtime for Bonnie. http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/assets/publ ... atest.jpeg

[wxman57]

if it slows down will the ridge build back in?

Yes, but that won't get what's left of Bonnie anywhere near Texas. And steering currents are pretty strong now. It won't have more than about 30 hours left over water, possibly less. We're fine here in TX. And LA/MS won't get much either.

[sleetstorm]

A fresh new complex of tropical thunderstorms has developed in Bonnie's northwest area.

[wxdata]

Upper low in the central Gulf looks more exciting than Bonnie..

[redfish1]

looks to me that Bonnie is moving west now

[gocuse22]

Its moving west because its weak.

[Andrew]

Got to give props to Ed on this one nice call on the eastern track.

[Ptarmigan]

Upper low in the central Gulf looks more exciting than Bonnie..

The upper low is creating windshear on Bonnie. The latest satellite image shows the Gulf is empty. Bonnie looks like it is faded away.

[biggerbyte]

Let me remind everyone that though Bonnie is in bad shape, the old girl ain't dead yet. Another truth is that she is very stubborn. Last check, Bonnie is supposed to slow her forward speed some, and the ridge is supposed to continue building in above her. Same rules apply here that apply to any system in the tropics. A Bonnie return is not likely due to the ULL, and the position of the ridge, but let's not break out the death cake until she is actually dead.

[Mr. T]

Got to give props to Ed on this one nice call on the eastern track.

Yes, nice call showing us what the models were showing

looks to me that Bonnie is moving west now

It's also dead...

[sambucol]

Discussion going on at another place that Bonnie is getting organized.

[biggerbyte]

Sorry T., but Bonnie is not dead. I invite everyone to take a look at what she is doing this morning. Storm track may stay the course, though a couple of things could alter that, the biggest surprise is that she is in no hurry to go away. The ULL should keep her from swinging toward Texas, but that same Low may be far enough away now to actually ventilate Bonnie. Don't be surprised if she is a storm again before landfall.