TD #02L Gulf of Mexico

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye near 39W.

[Portastorm]

Nice work Edward!

Lots to consider here ... and the maps you've shared offer plenty of food for thought.

"Looks like August" indeed!

[Big O]

I agree Ed. This is looking like a bigger (not necessarily big) ticket item than 95L. Seems eerily similar to Alex; however, the progged upper air pattern and steering currents suggests that this may come further north than Alex.

JB also mentioned in his Big Dog this morning that Texas needs to pay attention to this system.

While models are not enthused with its intensity prospects at this time, that could change with time. Definitely something to keep an eye on given the copious amounts of rain Texas has received from the outer rain bands of Alex.

[Paul]

The EURO last night was hinting something in the GOM again next week....this is 2 runs in a row so far....those blobs due look suspect though....tail end of that monsoon Trof reminds me of 2005 all over again.

the end of that trof likes to procreate so that is where I would be looking....39W also..doesnt look like much because of the SAL but wait until it gets closer. It does have some spin to it....

[Paul]

because your looking at the wrong area Ed....further out....and you know the ECarib is TS graveyard...

[don]

FWIW the 0z GFS shows a weak close low moving towards the texas coast next week

[Paul]

so lets see..the EURO,CMC, GFS and NOGAPS to some extent show something in the GOM in 6 days approaching Texas or SWLA... hard to tell what feature they are bringing in...EURO seems the think somewhere around 60-65W...others form it up in the WCARIB....OH and the all knowing all seeing NAM shows something also...

[Ptarmigan]

so lets see..the EURO,CMC, GFS and NOGAPS to some extent show something in the GOM in 6 days approaching Texas or SWLA... hard to tell what feature they are bringing in...EURO seems the think somewhere around 60-65W...others form it up in the WCARIB....OH and the all knowing all seeing NAM shows something also...

If all these computer models you mention show something in GOM next week, it is something to really watch. Never seen so many computer models come to that. Has that ever happened?

[don]

Canadian shows a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane hitting the middle Texas coast just north of Corpus



Euro shows tropical system hitting Mexico

[perk]

Look like the chances are improving for another storm in the GOM next week.

[desiredwxgd]

Crazy Uncle- 997 mb tropical storm landfalling Wednesday Beaumont/Lake Charles area


Home made NASA vis loop-

Disturbed, but nothing obvious in the low levels yet.

Unlike 95L, it isn't under a dry trough.

Although I appreciate your humor as things can get confusing from time to time may I suggest clarifying when you say "Crazy Uncle"?

[Paul]

we will see how crazy the CMC is but another run backed by the EURO suggest development next week in the WGOM..

[ticka1]

Ed - don't look now!!! But the NHC has a yellow circle around your area of interest. Its NOT an Invest yet...but its got a 10% chance of tropical development in 48 hours. Its a start

[ticka1]

[srainhoutx]

I would not be surprised to see 96L declared in the not too distant future.

[Paul]

probably in the am if this keeps up.....some serious cold tops out there now...

[unome]

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007040705
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2010, DB, O, 2010070406, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962010
AL, 96, 2010070306, , BEST, 0, 159N, 760W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010070312, , BEST, 0, 162N, 775W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010070318, , BEST, 0, 166N, 790W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010070400, , BEST, 0, 170N, 805W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2010070406, , BEST, 0, 175N, 820W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[srainhoutx]

Code: Select all

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0707 UTC SUN JUL 4 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100704 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100704 0600 100704 1800 100705 0600 100705 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.5N 82.0W 19.5N 85.1W 21.2N 87.5W 22.9N 89.3W
BAMD 17.5N 82.0W 18.9N 83.9W 20.2N 85.5W 21.3N 86.9W
BAMM 17.5N 82.0W 19.0N 84.4W 20.4N 86.4W 21.7N 88.1W
LBAR 17.5N 82.0W 18.8N 83.9W 20.1N 85.5W 21.3N 86.8W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100706 0600 100707 0600 100708 0600 100709 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.1N 90.9W 25.8N 94.1W 26.4N 97.8W 26.2N 101.3W
BAMD 22.3N 88.2W 23.5N 90.7W 24.2N 93.6W 24.6N 96.3W
BAMM 22.9N 89.6W 24.5N 92.7W 25.5N 96.2W 26.0N 99.8W
LBAR 22.3N 87.9W 24.3N 89.9W 25.8N 91.8W 26.0N 93.8W
SHIP 40KTS 54KTS 66KTS 72KTS
DSHP 37KTS 51KTS 63KTS 34KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.5N LONCUR = 82.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 16.6N LONM12 = 79.0W DIRM12 = 286DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 15.9N LONM24 = 76.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[ticka1]

Need to change the thread title. Looks like 96L will pull a repeat of Alex?

[Hardcoreweather]