TD #02L Gulf of Mexico

[Mr. T]

GFS keeps this system an open wave mess, dragging all of the moisture NW towards the Upper Texas Coast with, you guessed it, heavy rainfall for SE TX.

Looks like another flooding situation is imminent

The 10th wettest July on record for the Houston area is 8.10". With IAH already at 6.32" for the month (including today's 0.31"), we only need just under 2" to break into the top ten. I think this will easily be accomplished after this week is over.

With all of this happening in just the first ten days of the month, it'll be fun to see how far up that list we climb. The 5th wettest July on record is 10.04" in 1955, while the wettest is 14.80" in 1900.

[Scott747]

6z HWRF -

[srainhoutx]

Sunrise on the Yucatan...

[Hardcoreweather]

Latest model runs

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330 ... 3d11f5.jpg

[texbosoxfan]

Its early July, we're still playing the pre-seaon games where the starters get pulled after the first quarter and the guys on the bubble for being cut have to go in and prove themselves. A few weeks to the meat and potatoes, the regular season, and key divisional games between traditional foes like the Eagles and the Cowboys.


And with a June hurricane, the preseason has already delivered more than promised.


Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

TOGA!!...TOGA!!

[srainhoutx]

Convection certainly has been persistent...

[sambucol]

To my amateur eye, 96L looks like it's a little more organized this morning.

[srainhoutx]

RECON missions scheduled for today/tomorrow have been cancelled, but P-3 Orion research missions will fly...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 061530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT TUE 06 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 07/1100Z TO 08/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-036

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 07/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 07/1600Z
D. 23.0N 91.0W
E. 07/1715Z TO 07/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 08/0600, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 08/0330Z
D. 25.0N 93.5W
E. 08/0445Z TO 08/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES
BEGINNING AT 08/1500Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS:
A. TASKING FOR 06/1800Z, 07/0600Z AND 07/1200Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 06/1210Z.
B. NOAA'S P-3 WILL BEGIN A SERIES OF FOUR RESEARCH
MISSIONS INTO THIS AREA AT 06/2000Z TODAY AND
THEN DEPARTING EVERY 12 HRS. OPERATING ALTITUDE
12,000 FT.

Also note the vorticity in the Southern Gulf...

[Hardcoreweather]

[sleetstorm]

We have seen numerous times in the past that tropical waves like the one in the western carribean where some of them have only had finite time and space to organize and strengthen and have gone from a simple heavy tropical rain maker to oh my goodness we have a major hurricane to deal with. Do you concur with me on that, biggerbyte?

[ronyan]

96L's time is running very short. It will have to under go a major change in organization in order to even make a depression...but we will probably get rain.

[ronyan]

OK, watched the JB video, and what he said seems pretty reasonable.


The weak low level feature, a wind and moisture surge, heads Northwestward towards Louisiana and Texas, may bring some showers.

If a TC develops, it will be from the convection covered mid level center when it gets into the Gulf. It could spin itself up into a tropical storm before moving inland, probably South of the Border.

That is the JB prediction, and it seems reasonable to me.


The model shift back towards NE Mexico and South Texas is probably based on the assumption if anything develops at all, it will be from the more convectively active mid level center now crossing the Yucatan.

Does Mexico have a TC magnet?

[Hardcoreweather]

Guess I might just have hire a bounty hunter and intercept one in Mexico

[biggerbyte]

Sleetstorm, yes, anything is possible with these things. Alex proved a lot of people wrong as he wound up to a nice looking system. This sort of thing happens all of the time. We'll see what the conditions are going to be for this round. That is what it is all about, after all. This system could get hit with dry air, some shear, and a limited amount of time to get it's act together. Alex moved slowly, which allowed for him to be in the right place at the right time for strengthening. We will have to watch this new system daily until it is over land, which at this point, it could follow Alex, go to Beaumont, or somewhere in between. Intensity is currently up for debate

Stat tuned...

[srainhoutx]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 061743
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
THROUGH TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[ticka1]

Email from Jeff Lindner today:

And here we go again....

Well defined tropical system moved inland yesterday over SC LA and is now moving toward SE TX producing flooding rainfall while next tropical wave over the Yucatan Channel has developed into a broad area of low pressure and will head for the lower/middle TX coast Thursday.

Threat for excessive rainfall and flooding will be possible tonight-Friday morning.

LA System:

Will first focus on the small low NNE of Lake Charles this morning which moved inland yesterday near lower Vermillion Bay and has taken on semi-tropical characteristics. This small but potent system is moving westward and along with its progression will come deep tropical moisture with KLCH sounding showing 2.4" PWS this morning. Should see this very moist air mass spread into SE TX from east to west this afternoon. Feel squalls/bands will develop in NW to SE fashion on the west side of this low this afternoon and then weaken toward sun set with the stage being set for a nocturnal core rain near the center of this low tonight. Best try right now is for any core rains to be focused over our N and E counties along and E of I-45...but it could be a touch more westward. This surface low will be NNW of SE TX on Wednesday opening the moisture feed off the Gulf into the region. Expect widespread rains...heavy at times to develop. With wet grounds run-off will be likely with hourly rainfall rates on the order of 2-4".

96L:

As the LA low moves west of our region Wednesday PM...here comes 96L about 24 hours later. Models have really backed off on developing any low level circulation and current satellite images suggest a highly disorganized system. However upper level winds will be favorable and it is possible something may attempt to spin up as the system moves NW across the Gulf toward the lower/middle TX coast. Wave axis/weak surface reflection should arrive into the middle coast Thursday with tremendous moisture advection on the NE side of this potential tropical system. Models really peg the middle/upper TX coast with significant rainfall starting late Wednesday and into much of Thursday. Not sure if this is what will play out...if a surface low forms...the rainfall may be focused more down the coast toward Matagorda Bay...if it remains an open wave...then more heavy rains up the coast toward Galveston into SW LA.

Will need to bump up winds and seas even with the system remaining an open wave and once again be concerned with tidal issues. Could see tides back to the 4.0 ft mark by late Wed/early Thurs.

Rainfall:

Hard to determine where, when, and how much it will rain, but the factors will be in play for some significant amounts tonight-early Friday morning. Track of LA low tonight will focus the rains near this feature through Wed afternoon and then 96L will be approaching from the SE (possibly as a TD or TS). The more defined 96L becomes the more focused the rain will be around its center...best estimate at this time points toward a weak TS at best with much of the rains NE of any center given the upper low over the western Gulf likely imparting some SW shear over any low level center that develops...a classic western Gulf weak/sheared tropical system.

Gulf Oil:

Easterly winds with Alex over the northern Gulf helped push some of the oil westward. Once again easterly winds will develop over the northern Gulf...possibly a little stronger than Alex. These easterlies will help transport some of the oil westward toward SC LA and SW LA and potentially as far west as SE TX. There is much uncertainty on how such a tropical system will/could impact the oil over the open water.

Note: I will be out on vacation starting tomorrow through July 16th...there will be no additional e-mails on the above mentioned threats. Additional information can be obtained from the your local National Weather Service Office and the National Hurricane Center.

[Hardcoreweather]

Latest models

http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330 ... fd3e7f.jpg

[wxman57]

To me, it appears to be becoming less organized with time. Convection is on the decline and moisture is being drawn northward across the Gulf. It's always easier to see a mid-level circulation when the convection dies off. Surface obs do not indicate any turning, no LLC forming. A 30% chance of development may be about right, but that's a 70% chance it won't develop.

One thing to take note of as far as models taking it to south Texas, the models do not see the upper-level low off the lower Texas coast correctly. The 12Z GFS, for instance, initializes the upper low about 180 miles south of where it actually is. That means the models may be too far south in taking the disturbance toward south Texas. Looks like another big rainmaker for the mid to upper Texas coast from late Thursday through Friday. But I don't expect more than a tropical disturbance moving ashore at this time.

[gregco31]

So my question is why? It seems like there is plenty of convection and it's about to travel through waters that just produced a cat 2 hurricane in June, so what is preventing this from a RI type situation like Humberto had?

[srainhoutx]

Mid Level Circulation about to exit the Yucatan. Keeping a watchful eye on d-max tonight...

Edit to add that P-3 RECON is finding 1002 mb just offshore of the NW Yucatan Coast.