How NHC’s Hurricane Track Forecasts Beat the Models

Tropical Weather Discussions and Analysis
unome
Posts: 3037
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm
Location: Cypress

How NHC’s Hurricane Track Forecasts Beat the Models

Post by unome » Mon Apr 13, 2020 8:30 am

From: Inside the Eye - Official Blog of the National Hurricane Center

https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2020/04/0 ... he-models/
...
Below are the most recent three years of data (2017, 2018, and 2019) of Atlantic basin track forecast skill from NHC and the three best individual track models: the GFS, ECMWF, and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office model (UKMET) (Figure 2). Track forecast skill is assessed by comparing NHC’s and each model’s performance to that of a baseline, which in this case is a climatology and persistence model. This model makes forecasts based on a combination of what past storms with similar characteristics–like location, intensity, forward speed, and the time of year–have done (the climatology part) and a continuation of what the current storm has been doing (the persistence part). This model contains no information about the current state of the atmosphere and represents a “no-skill” level of accuracy.
...
Image
Image
Image

I would love to see these charts based on intensity as well