Hurricane Alex. 40 Miles NNE of La Pesca. 100 MPH/948MB

[GulfBreeze]

Keep Alex south -

[ejburas]

AL, 01, 2010062606, , BEST, 0, 166N, 845W, 35, 1007, TS

[Mr. T]

Keep Alex south -

K, but if it were to remain a weak storm and move swiftly through, it would really help with the rainfall deficits this year... Parts of SE TX and LA could really use some rain, and a weak TS that doesn't overstay its welcome is a nice cure.

[Scott747]

Looks like it will be upgraded here in a few minutes...

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=AL012010

[djjordan]

We now have TS Alex

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
500 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ALEX...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 84.9W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN
* THE ISLANDS OF ROATAN...GUANAJA...AND UTILA IN HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE BORDER OF
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST. ALEX IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ALEX WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS
POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE CIRCULATION OF ALEX CONSOLIDATES.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE
CENTER OF ALEX REACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE OR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS
1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN GUATEMALA...MUCH
OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE BAY
ISLANDS OF HONDURAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH THE COAST OF
BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY
TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Mr. T]

HGX thoughts:

FCST INTO THE MID/LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK HINGES ON WHAT THE
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ENDS UP DOING. IT IS FCST TO MOVE OVER THE
YUCATAN THIS WEEKEND AND EMERGE IN THE SRN GULF LATE SUNDAY. FROM
THERE THE OFFICIAL TRACK TAKES IT TO AROUND 275 MILES SOUTH OF
MATAGORDA BAY (OR 150 MILES SE OF BROWNSVILLE) LATE WED NIGHT...WHICH
IS GENERALLY A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE LATEST 6Z GUIDANCE
SPAGHETTI PLOT. GFS IS SHOWING A BROAD 1006MB LOW IN THAT SAME
GENERAL VICINITY AT THAT TIME THEN DRIFTS IT AROUND OFF THE UPPER
TX COAST FOR A FEW DAYS. FWIW...ECMWF TAKES IT TOWARD TAMPICO WED
MORNING...NOGAPS & CANADIAN TO S TX WED/WED NT. KIND OF AN
INTERESTING UPPER PATTERN AT THAT TIME WITH A MID LEVEL HIGH OFF
BAJA...ANOTHER EXTENDING INTO THE ERN GULF...AND A THIRD ONE IN
THE PLAINS (AND THE TROPICAL SYSTEM SANDWICHED BETWEEN THEM ALL).
UNTIL ALEX MOVES BACK INTO THE GULF AND REORGANIZES AND THE UPPER
PATTERN/DOMINATING STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE CLEAR...THE FCST FOR
SE TX WILL REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW...PLAN ON NUDGING POPS
UP OFFSHORE AND CLOSER TO THE COAST NEXT WEEK AS THE OVERALL
CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY LARGE.

STILL A BIT EARLY TO SAY WHAT TIDES WILL DO AS WELL BUT WOULD
ANTICIPATE A SLIGHT RISE AS AN E/ENE FETCH BEGINS SETTING UP.

[Hardcoreweather]

[srainhoutx]

[Scott747]

0z GFDL has shifted S to Brownsville. I suspect we will see the track adjusted further to the S now that the GFDL is becoming more in line with the other models.

[srainhoutx]

One mission today for RECON before landfall along the Yucatan...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 251415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT FRI 25 JUNE 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z JUNE 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-025

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 26/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0301A CYCLONE
C. 26/1400Z
D. 18.5N 86.5W
E. 26/1630Z TO 26/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 28/1200Z IF THE SYSTEM SURVIVES OVERLAND.

[Hardcoreweather]

Rapid intensification is a possibility today given the coverage of cold convection and the appearance of numerous hot towers. From SHIPS:

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 42% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%)

[sleetstorm]

Good Morning everyone. I see that we have our first tropical storm of this year's hurricane season as 3:55a.m. Does it look like Tropical Storm Alex is moving west-northwest or northwest to any of you?

[Katdaddy]

Alex is a very large June system. More models are coming in line with Euro which points to a NE MEX landfall. Joe Bastardi is also calling for a NE MEX landfall but did state it could be close to S TX. He believes this will become the first hurricane of the 2010 season.

[sleetstorm]

I thought that dome of high pressure was predicted to siphon it a little more to the north to somewhere in between Brownsville and Houston.

[redfish1]

what time do the next set of models come out

[SusieinLP]

The ridge over the eastern GOM would push Alex more west,....

[biggerbyte]

I urge everyone to not assume that what you read today about Alex will be valid tomorrow. This storm is moving slowly, and is expected to strengthen quickly, especially after it moves into the Gulf. As conditions change over the coming days, it is every bit possible that the track moves back up the Texas Coast. We may be going to see that Mexico landfall in the end, but it is in no way set in stone...At least not yet. Everyone from Brownsville to New Orleans had better pay attention.

I went yesterday and bought my Hurricane supplies for the season. It was the right time.

[Stormrider]

Alex is looking pretty healthy for a minimal TS, and large to boot.

I'm in agreement with biggerbyte that Alex shouldn't be taken for granted.

[unome]

Good Morning everyone. I see that we have our first tropical storm of this year's hurricane season as 3:55a.m. Does it look like Tropical Storm Alex is moving west-northwest or northwest to any of you?

the TCHP graphic sort of shows where the center is/was sucking up heat from the ocean, so you can use it as a reference of sorts



then there's always CIMSS, which is likely more accurate

[wxman57]

Here's a plot of some of the better models, along with the OFCI (official interpreted) track from the NHC. Note that the only track NOT well inland in 5 days is NHC. They're WAY too slow with moving Alex on the last two days, just 1-2 kts forward speed. We have Alex inland about 120 miles south of Brownsville before noon Wednesday. Oh, and I'm fairly confident it'll be a hurricane, possibly Cat 2 or greater. Just don't see the shear to hurt it in the Gulf. And with a good 48-60 hrs over water, it could become a large and powerful hurricane. Just depends on how much the core is disrupted over the Yucatan. Such a large circulation won't be disrupted as much, though.