General Tropical Discussion Thread

[kayci]

Thanx Srain... so you're not worried about any development from this?

[srainhoutx]

Nah. Any increase in rain chances would be welcome though.

[kayci]

Thanks! I feel better.

[srainhoutx]

Tropical Season is far from over I'm afraid...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 071158
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HERMINE...LOCATED INLAND ABOUT 50 MILES WEST OF CORPUS CHRISTI
TEXAS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GASTON. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES WEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE
LOW MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND
THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

[Andrew]

Euro shows an active and scary outlook:

[Met Tech]

Got my gif script working, so here's a link to an animated gif of today's KWRF tropical run (2.3 mb in size). It starts with the 10th and runs through the 13th at random time steps since that's how my computer rolls.

http://www.sanfordlabs.com/WRF/wind.gif

[Ptarmigan]

These tropical disturbances are like cockroaches. They keep coming at ya. Them cockroach tropical disturbances.

[Paul]

interesting times after Gaston has poofed tonight....that was to be expected....tomorrow another day and we will see what the hottest part of the basin has for him....the LLC or whats left of it did not hit Hispa its south of the island heading towards Jam......talking about the EURO run this afternoon ....Hard to tell what it brings up because we have nothing really out there in the MDR except 91L....But the NAM is bitting and that is a sure sign something it brewing.....

[srainhoutx]

We have a new feature very near the Windward Islands that may well develop as time goes on. There have been 'hints' of development from the Euro for a couple of days now that generally heads W nearing the Yucatan in a few days. Nearing peak season folks...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[srainhoutx]

Here is the 12Z Euro at 168 hours...

[srainhoutx]

HGX comments on the Euro...

FWIW...THE TROPICS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT QUIET AS WE PASS OVER THE
AXIS OF THE BELL CURVE OF CYCLONE FREQUENCY. FALLING ON THE RIGHT
SIDE OF THIS CURVE THROUGH MID-SEPTEMBER IS ARBITRARY AS THE EURO
TAKES A WEAK SYSTEM FROM THE CARIBBEAN DUE WEST UNDER RIDGE INTO
THE YUCATAN/BAY OF CAMPECHE BY NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE THE EURO/GFS
STEER IGOR TOWARDS THE EAST COAST WITH A HOPEFUL EAST COAST TROUGH
STEERING IT MORE NORTH THAN EAST AT 240 HOURS. 31

[srainhoutx]

Seeing some model support for this disturbance. Perhaps a new thread is in order.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR A FEW HUNDRED
MILES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVES
LITTLE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Ptarmigan]

The atmosphere can change anytime it wants and will do so. I think Texas is not out of the woods yet. As I pointed out, major hurricanes can hit in October like in 1949. As for before 1851, there is a very good possibility of major hurricanes hitting Texas that time. I am guessing it probably happens every 200 years or something like that, since only 1 major hurricane hit in October on the Upper Texas Coast from 1851-2010.

[Andrew]

[sambucol]

What is that off the Texas coast?

[Andrew]

What is that off the Texas coast?

Yea that is why I was laughing because it is 350+ hours out, but it does show a hurricane off the coast.

[kayci]

Hello Andrew, and congrats on your new status.

Please tell me you were laughing because it was a real joke! And tell me you drew those graphics. right?

[Ptarmigan]

What is that off the Texas coast?

Yea that is why I was laughing because it is 350+ hours out, but it does show a hurricane off the coast.

Hmmmm. Anything can happen between now and +350 hours from now.

[Andrew]

Hello Andrew, and congrats on your new status.

Please tell me you were laughing because it was a real joke! And tell me you drew those graphics. right?

Hey Kayci, and thank you.

The reason I was laughing is because of how many times the GFS has painted a similar scenario. This far out, you or I would have the same chance of predicting where a storm might hit/form. Watch next run there either won't be a storm or it will hit the east coast. That is how the GFS rolls.

[kayci]

Hello Andrew, and congrats on your new status.

Please tell me you were laughing because it was a real joke! And tell me you drew those graphics. right?

Hey Kayci, and thank you.

The reason I was laughing is because of how many times the GFS has painted a similar scenario. This far out, you or I would have the same chance of predicting where a storm might hit/form. Watch next run there either won't be a storm or it will hit the east coast. That is how the GFS rolls.

*whew* THANK YOU! Then I shall laugh too!