TS Isaac/Caribbean Islands Threat

Tropical Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 18725
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6
Contact:

TS Isaac/Caribbean Islands Threat

Post by srainhoutx » Mon Sep 03, 2018 12:53 pm

Some much for a dead season... ;)
Attachments
09032018 92L Plot 18Zsfcplot_92L_latest.png
09032018 18Z Tracks 92L_tracks_18z.png
09032018 2PM EDT two_atl_5d0.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 1595
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 10:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

Re: INVEST 92L/SE of Cabo Verde Islands

Post by DoctorMu » Mon Sep 03, 2018 4:08 pm

Fish storm?

User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 998
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

Re: INVEST 92L/SE of Cabo Verde Islands

Post by Texaspirate11 » Wed Sep 05, 2018 7:04 pm

i think florence will take him ots....
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant

User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 18725
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6
Contact:

Re: INVEST 92L/Central Atlantic

Post by srainhoutx » Fri Sep 07, 2018 6:12 am

92L still has a High Chance to form into a Tropical Cyclone tonight or tomorrow (90%), but lack organization to be upgraded to a Depression at this time. The overnight models continue to advertise that a West track is likely and could well be a Caribbean Cruiser later next week. 93L just of Senegal in Western Africa likely will form first making it Helene. That would mean 92L could become Isaac. I always tend to follow the "I" name a bit more closely when the future track has it going West... ;)
Attachments
09062018_1115_ 92L msg4_x_vis2km_92LINVEST_25kts-1008mb-137N-345W_100pc.jpg
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 18725
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6
Contact:

Re: TD #9 (Former 92L) Central Atlant

Post by srainhoutx » Sat Sep 08, 2018 6:56 am

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

The depression continues to be affected by moderate to strong east
to southeasterly vertical wind shear, which has resulted in the
bulk of the deep convection being displaced to the west of the
low-level center. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt
based on Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from
both TAFB and SAB.

The depression has been meandering in the same general area for the
past 12-18 h due to being caught in a weakness in the subtropical
ridge. However, recent microwave satellite data suggest that the
cyclone is now moving slowly northwestward. A turn toward the west
is expected to occur later today as a shortwave trough to the north
that has weakened the ridge lifts out, allowing the ridge to fill
back in and build westward to the north of the Lesser Antilles. The
latest NHC model guidance suite remains tightly packed, and the
official forecast track lies down the middle of the envelope near a
blend of the consensus aids TCVA, HCCA, FSSE.

Although the wind shear is forecast to gradually weaken and become
less than 5 kt by 36-48 h, which would favor rapid strengthening,
the airmass that the cyclone is embedded is fairly dry. Since
mid-level humidity values are forecast to decrease from the current
60-percent range down to around 50 percent by 48 hours and beyond,
only modest strengthening is expected during the next 4 days. By day
5, vertical wind shear from the southwest is forecast to increase to
20-25 kt, serving to cap the intensification process. The NHC
intensity forecast is based on a blend of the IVCN and the HCCA
consensus models, and continues to remain below the stronger HWRF
model at days 4 and 5, which makes the cyclone a major hurricane in
78 h.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 14.3N 35.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 14.4N 36.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 14.5N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 14.7N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 14.6N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 14.5N 47.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 14.6N 52.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 14.9N 57.2W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Attachments
09082018 5 AM TD 9 085656_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 18725
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: NW Houston FM 1960/SH 6
Contact:

Re: TS Isaac (Former 92L) Central Atlantic

Post by srainhoutx » Sat Sep 08, 2018 3:31 pm

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018

The structure of the cyclone, while still a shear pattern, is
improving, with the low-level center now near the convective
overcast and improved outflow in the eastern semicircle. Satellite
intensity estimates have increased to the 30-45 kt range, with the
CIMSS satellite consensus technique now suggesting winds near 35
kt. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity is increased to
35 kt and the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Isaac.

Isaac is now moving slowly westward, with the initial motion 275/6.
The subtropical ridge to the north of Isaac is forecast to steer the
system westward with an increasing forward speed for at least the
next 2-3 days. After that time, there is some uncertainty in the
track forecast due to the formation of a mid- to upper-level trough
over the central Atlantic, with some of the track guidance showing a
decrease in forward speed and a more northerly motion near the end
of the forecast period. The GFS and ECMWF models show a continued
westerly motion through that time, and the official forecast follows
that scenario, although with a slower forward speed than in the
previous forecast. The new forecast is again similar to the
earlier forecast and lies near the various consensus models.

Conditions appear favorable for gradual strengthening during the
next 72 h as Isaac moves westward across the warm waters of the
tropical Atlantic. In best agreement with the SHIPS model for the
next three days, the new intensity forecast is raised from the
previous forecast during this time. From 72-120 h, the system is
expected to encounter westerly wind shear, which is expected to
cause some weakening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 14.5N 36.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 14.6N 37.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 14.7N 39.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 14.7N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 14.7N 44.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 14.5N 50.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 14.5N 55.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 15.0N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
Attachments
09082018 5 PM Isaac 205358_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

Post Reply