TS Irma: Weakening Over Central Florida
Watching the weather channel. Why are people playing on the beach and smiling and laughing and jumping in the surf? These are the folks that will have to be rescued or one of the fatalities you read about.
I do not get that either.mckinne63 wrote:Watching the weather channel. Why are people playing on the beach and smiling and laughing and jumping in the surf? These are the folks that will have to be rescued or one of the fatalities you read about.
Last edited by Ptarmigan on Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Irma still refusing to turn, but weakening over the sugar cane fields of Cuba. Storms this size create their own bubble. Will she defy steering currents? She's not going for the trough, yet.
Is it a wobble or turn and ejection off the Cuban coast?
Has Irma started the turn yet?
Appears so.
Definitely so. Sometime around 00:45 & 01:15?Ounce wrote:Appears so.
Irma is headed now NNW towards the Keys, and has regained CAT 4 status:
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status ... 9047906304
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 6:00Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 29
Observation Number: 14 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 5:42:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°43'N 81°16'W (23.7167N 81.2667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 67 statute miles (108 km) to the SSE (151°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,480m (8,136ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 101kts (~ 116.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WSW (254°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 339° at 113kts (From the NNW at ~ 130.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WSW (254°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 930mb (27.47 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 128kts (~ 147.3mph) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NE (49°) from the flight level center at 5:47:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 150° at 5kts (From the SSE at 6mph)
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status ... 9047906304
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 6:00Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 29
Observation Number: 14 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 5:42:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°43'N 81°16'W (23.7167N 81.2667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 67 statute miles (108 km) to the SSE (151°) from Key West, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,480m (8,136ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 101kts (~ 116.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WSW (254°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 339° at 113kts (From the NNW at ~ 130.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the WSW (254°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 930mb (27.47 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 128kts (~ 147.3mph) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the NE (49°) from the flight level center at 5:47:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 150° at 5kts (From the SSE at 6mph)
Last edited by DoctorMu on Sun Sep 10, 2017 11:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
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- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
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Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
910 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017
...IRMA MAKES LANDFALL AT CUDJOE KEY IN LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...
The center of Hurricane Irma made landfall at Cudjoe Key in the
lower Florida Keys at 9:10 am EDT. A gust to 106 mph (171 km/h)
was just reported at the National Key Deer Refuge in Big Pine Key.
SUMMARY OF 910 AM EDT...1310 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 81.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ENE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Landsea/Mello
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
910 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017
...IRMA MAKES LANDFALL AT CUDJOE KEY IN LOWER FLORIDA KEYS...
The center of Hurricane Irma made landfall at Cudjoe Key in the
lower Florida Keys at 9:10 am EDT. A gust to 106 mph (171 km/h)
was just reported at the National Key Deer Refuge in Big Pine Key.
SUMMARY OF 910 AM EDT...1310 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 81.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ENE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Landsea/Mello
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
this is frightening:
"Craig Setzer CBS4 Retweeted Jillian Mele
Frightening video of what should normally be a full bay up to the edge. Frightening because it will come back in and then some, with force"
https://twitter.com/jillianmele/status/ ... 5381250049
"Jillian Mele
Look at Tampa Bay... this AM there were whitecaps. @JaniceDean told me the winds from #irma are pushing the water out @foxandfriends"
"Craig Setzer CBS4 Retweeted Jillian Mele
Frightening video of what should normally be a full bay up to the edge. Frightening because it will come back in and then some, with force"
https://twitter.com/jillianmele/status/ ... 5381250049
"Jillian Mele
Look at Tampa Bay... this AM there were whitecaps. @JaniceDean told me the winds from #irma are pushing the water out @foxandfriends"
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19615
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Midday Sunday briefing from Jeff:
Devastating hurricane pounding S FL.
Irma made landfall over the lower FL Keys early this morning as a category 4….Irma is now the second category 4 hurricane to strike the US coastline in 16 days…pre Harvey…the US coast went over 4550 days without a major hurricane landfall.
Devastating storm surge has occurred over the FL Keys….limited data flow out of the middle Keys indicates at least 15 ft has swept over the middle Islands. It appears that all of the FL Keys have gone under water. A wind gust of 120mph was recorded at Pine Key before the instrument failed. Miami has been gusting between 80-100mph for several hours.
Significant storm surge flooding is currently breaching the west end of the Miami River in portions of Downtown Miami where intense 60-80mph winds are forcing the river over its western seawalls. Storm surge is reported nearly neck deep in some portions of Miami near the Miami River…interestingly this area was not expected to see much storm surge…so some kind of local terrain and wind induced surge is causing a local piling of the water and significant flooding.
Massive blow down (pulling of water away from the coast) is in progress along the entire W coast of FL with tides running 5-6 feet below normal. As Irma moves NNW up the coast and winds turn onshore a large and destructive storm surge will overrun much of these areas…sea water will rise nearly 10-15 feet in a matter of 1-2 hours.
Current radar tracking of Irma’s center has it making a final landfall near Marco Island and Fort Myers this afternoon. The intense northern eyewall is only about 40 miles SSE of Naples, FL.
A life threatening storm surge of 10-15 feet above the ground is likely along the SW FL coast from Everglades City northward to Fort Myers and Port Charlotte and 5-10 ft above the ground north of Fort Myers to the mouth of Tampa Bay.
Devastating hurricane pounding S FL.
Irma made landfall over the lower FL Keys early this morning as a category 4….Irma is now the second category 4 hurricane to strike the US coastline in 16 days…pre Harvey…the US coast went over 4550 days without a major hurricane landfall.
Devastating storm surge has occurred over the FL Keys….limited data flow out of the middle Keys indicates at least 15 ft has swept over the middle Islands. It appears that all of the FL Keys have gone under water. A wind gust of 120mph was recorded at Pine Key before the instrument failed. Miami has been gusting between 80-100mph for several hours.
Significant storm surge flooding is currently breaching the west end of the Miami River in portions of Downtown Miami where intense 60-80mph winds are forcing the river over its western seawalls. Storm surge is reported nearly neck deep in some portions of Miami near the Miami River…interestingly this area was not expected to see much storm surge…so some kind of local terrain and wind induced surge is causing a local piling of the water and significant flooding.
Massive blow down (pulling of water away from the coast) is in progress along the entire W coast of FL with tides running 5-6 feet below normal. As Irma moves NNW up the coast and winds turn onshore a large and destructive storm surge will overrun much of these areas…sea water will rise nearly 10-15 feet in a matter of 1-2 hours.
Current radar tracking of Irma’s center has it making a final landfall near Marco Island and Fort Myers this afternoon. The intense northern eyewall is only about 40 miles SSE of Naples, FL.
A life threatening storm surge of 10-15 feet above the ground is likely along the SW FL coast from Everglades City northward to Fort Myers and Port Charlotte and 5-10 ft above the ground north of Fort Myers to the mouth of Tampa Bay.
- Attachments
-
-
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
People on Tampa Bay after Hurricane Irma sucked all the water.unome wrote:this is frightening:
"Craig Setzer CBS4 Retweeted Jillian Mele
Frightening video of what should normally be a full bay up to the edge. Frightening because it will come back in and then some, with force"
https://twitter.com/jillianmele/status/ ... 5381250049
"Jillian Mele
Look at Tampa Bay... this AM there were whitecaps. @JaniceDean told me the winds from #irma are pushing the water out @foxandfriends"
https://twitter.com/codonnell_Times/sta ... 4208889856
Many areas in Florida are experiencing power outage.
https://www.fplmaps.com
https://www.fplmaps.com
130 mph gusts recorded at Marco Island Emergency Operations Center.
https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/906957629121015809
https://twitter.com/NWSMiami/status/906957629121015809
Storm surge in Marathon, Florida.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BY3TWeblE1D/
https://www.instagram.com/p/BY3TWeblE1D/
These videos are stunning. Imagine if Irma hadn't scraped the coast Cuba (weakening it), and ended up a little more east with a Miami landfall?
Code: Select all
000
WTNT31 KNHC 110243
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017
...IRMA PRODUCING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 81.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ENE OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SE OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Hurricane Warning has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning
from Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach, as well as for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River southward to Jupiter Inlet
* North Miami Beach southward around the Florida peninsula to the
Ochlockonee River
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* North of Jupiter Inlet to Fernandina Beach
* North of Bonita Beach to Indian Pass
* Lake Okeechobee
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach
* Florida Keys
* Florida Bay
* West of Indian Pass to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* North of Fernandina Beach to South Santee River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bimini and Grand Bahama
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States should monitor
the progress of Irma.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
by NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 81.9 West.
Irma is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn
toward the north-northwest and then northwest at a faster forward
speed is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track,
the center of Irma will continue to move over the western Florida
peninsula through Monday morning and then into the southeastern
United States late Monday and Tuesday.
Doppler radar data indicate that maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
weakening is forecast, and Irma is expected to become a tropical
storm over far northern Florida or southern Georgia on Monday.
Irma has a very large wind field. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Cape Sable to Captiva...4 to 6 ft
Captiva to Anna Maria Island...3 to 5 ft
North Miami Beach to Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys...3 to 5
ft
Anna Maria Island to Clearwater Beach, including Tampa Bay...2 to 4
ft
South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 to 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet...3 to 5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are continuing across portions of the
central Florida peninsula. Winds affecting the upper floors of
high-rise buildings will be significantly stronger than those near
ground level. Tropical storm conditions will continue across
portions of southern Florida and the Florida Keys through Monday
morning. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected
to spread northward across the remainder of the warning areas
through Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions
of the warning area in the Northwestern Bahamas overnight.
RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Wednesday:
Western Bahamas...Additional 2 to 4 inches.
The Florida Keys...Additional 1 inch possible with storm total
amounts from 15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Western Florida peninsula...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Eastern Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 12 inches,
isolated 16 inches.
The rest of Georgia, the eastern Florida Panhandle, southern and
western South Carolina, and western North Carolina...3 to 8 inches,
isolated 12 inches.
Southern Tennessee, northern Mississippi and much of Alabama...2 to
5 inches.
In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across northeast Florida
and southeast portions of Georgia and South Carolina through Monday
night.
SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of
the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Berg-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19615
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 49A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017
...IRMA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT STILL PRODUCING SOME WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 82.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Warning is discontinued from south of the
Flagler/Volusia County line to Jupiter Inlet.
The Hurricane Warning from Sebastian Inlet to Fernandina Beach is
changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.
The Hurricane Warning from Anclote River to Indian Pass is changed
to a Tropical Storm Warning.
The Hurricane Watch from north of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach
is discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River southward to the Flagler/Volusia County line
* Cape Sable northward to the Ochlockonee River
* Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Jupiter Inlet to the South Santee River
* Lake Okeechobee
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States should monitor
the progress of Irma.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was
located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 82.9 West. Irma is
moving toward the north-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Irma will move near the northwestern coast of
the Florida Peninsula this morning, cross the eastern Florida
Panhandle into southern Georgia this afternoon, and move through
southwestern Georgia and eastern Alabama tonight and Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional slow weakening is forecast, and Irma
is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by Tuesday afternoon.
Irma has a very large wind field. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 60 miles (95 km) mainly to the west of the center, and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.64 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Cape Sable to Captiva...2 to 4 ft
Captiva to Anna Maria Island...3 to 5 ft
North Miami Beach to Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys...1 to 2
ft
Anna Maria Island to Clearwater, including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft
South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 t 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet...3 to 5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the
central and northern Florida peninsula, and are spreading into
southern Georgia. Tropical storm conditions should spread into the
eastern Florida Panhandle today. Tropical storm conditions are also
expected to spread northward across the remainder of the warning
areas through today.
Rainfall: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Wednesday:
The Florida Keys and southern Florida peninsula: additional 1 inch.
Central Florida peninsula: additional 1 to 3 inches.
Northern Florida peninsula and southern Georgia: additional 3 to 6
inches with storm total amounts of 8 to 15 inches.
Central Georgia, eastern Alabama and southern South Carolina: 3 to
inches, isolated 10 inches.
Central Florida Panhandle, western Alabama, northern Mississippi,
southern Tennessee, northern Georgia, northern South Carolina and
western North Carolina: 2 to 4 inches.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across northeast Florida
and southeast portions of Georgia and South Carolina through
tonight.
SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of
the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm Irma Intermediate Advisory Number 49A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017
...IRMA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT STILL PRODUCING SOME WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 82.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Warning is discontinued from south of the
Flagler/Volusia County line to Jupiter Inlet.
The Hurricane Warning from Sebastian Inlet to Fernandina Beach is
changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.
The Hurricane Warning from Anclote River to Indian Pass is changed
to a Tropical Storm Warning.
The Hurricane Watch from north of Fernandina Beach to Edisto Beach
is discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River southward to the Flagler/Volusia County line
* Cape Sable northward to the Ochlockonee River
* Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Jupiter Inlet to the South Santee River
* Lake Okeechobee
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
Interests elsewhere in the southeastern United States should monitor
the progress of Irma.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irma was
located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 82.9 West. Irma is
moving toward the north-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Irma will move near the northwestern coast of
the Florida Peninsula this morning, cross the eastern Florida
Panhandle into southern Georgia this afternoon, and move through
southwestern Georgia and eastern Alabama tonight and Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional slow weakening is forecast, and Irma
is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by Tuesday afternoon.
Irma has a very large wind field. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 60 miles (95 km) mainly to the west of the center, and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.64 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Cape Sable to Captiva...2 to 4 ft
Captiva to Anna Maria Island...3 to 5 ft
North Miami Beach to Cape Sable, including the Florida Keys...1 to 2
ft
Anna Maria Island to Clearwater, including Tampa Bay...2 to 4 ft
South Santee River to Fernandina Beach...4 to 6 ft
Clearwater Beach to Ochlockonee River...4 t 6 ft
Fernandina Beach to Jupiter Inlet...3 to 5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the
central and northern Florida peninsula, and are spreading into
southern Georgia. Tropical storm conditions should spread into the
eastern Florida Panhandle today. Tropical storm conditions are also
expected to spread northward across the remainder of the warning
areas through today.
Rainfall: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Wednesday:
The Florida Keys and southern Florida peninsula: additional 1 inch.
Central Florida peninsula: additional 1 to 3 inches.
Northern Florida peninsula and southern Georgia: additional 3 to 6
inches with storm total amounts of 8 to 15 inches.
Central Georgia, eastern Alabama and southern South Carolina: 3 to
inches, isolated 10 inches.
Central Florida Panhandle, western Alabama, northern Mississippi,
southern Tennessee, northern Georgia, northern South Carolina and
western North Carolina: 2 to 4 inches.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across northeast Florida
and southeast portions of Georgia and South Carolina through
tonight.
SURF: Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeast coast of
the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity