2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

[srainhoutx]

A brief Update this morning regarding the Tropics. I am seeing some indications that our Hemispheric Pattern may become favorable once again for Tropical Development across the Atlantic Basin. We have a vigorous Tropical Disturbance about 800 miles WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving West at 15 MPH. The NHC is monitoring another tropical wave to the East just off the West Coast of Africa.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Jose, located several hundred miles east-northeast of the
southeastern Bahamas.

1. A tropical wave located about 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
early next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph across the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Another tropical wave, located between the west coast of Africa and
the Cabo Verde Islands, is producing a large area of disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system is
possible over the next few days before upper-level winds become less
favorable. The system is forecast to move westward at 10 to 15 mph
across the far eastern tropical Atlantic for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


I suspect the vigorous Tropical Disturbance that will near the Central Atlantic this weekend will be our next INVEST and will likely become Lee at some point over the next 5 to 7 days as it approaches the Caribbean Islands. The ECMWF suggests a potential brush of the SE United States Coast and the GFS suggests a track more Westerly into the Caribbean Sea. The Madden Julian Oscillation looks to become rather favorable for the Western Hemisphere regarding potential tropical development, so it will be worth monitoring. We now see that La Nina is developing as the sea surface temperatures continue to cool rather dramatically across the Pacific Ocean from the West Coast of South America into the Central Pacific Equatorial waters. I believe that we could see an additional 5-8 named storms and possibly another Major Hurricane before the 2017 Hurricane Season ends November 30th. Typically our Texas threat for Tropical Systems end around September 20th or so, but this years has been a bit different. History shows that we can have October land falling Hurricanes such as Jerry in 1989. We will continue to monitor the Tropics daily until we know with some certainty that we are done with the Historic 2017 Hurricane Season.

[BlueJay]

"I believe that we could see an additional 5-8 named storms and possibly another Major Hurricane before the 2017 Hurricane Season ends November 30th. Typically our Texas threat for Tropical Systems end around September 20th or so, but this years has been a bit different. History shows that we can have October land falling Hurricanes such as Jerry in 1989. We will continue to monitor the Tropics daily until we know with some certainty that we are done with the Historic 2017 Hurricane Season."

Thanks for the warning, srain. I pray that other factors will erase this possible scenario.

[srainhoutx]

Eric Blake Verified account @EricBlake12 · 47m47 minutes ago
Hope everyone is strapped in because with a possible #LaNina forming, that increases the chances of an active end of #hurricane season

Philip Klotzbach‏Verified account @philklotzbach · 15m15 minutes ago
Replying to @EricBlake12

La Nina & anomalously warm Caribbean means more low-level vorticity in the SW Caribbean - prime late-season Atl hurricane formation zone.

[Ptarmigan]

"I believe that we could see an additional 5-8 named storms and possibly another Major Hurricane before the 2017 Hurricane Season ends November 30th. Typically our Texas threat for Tropical Systems end around September 20th or so, but this years has been a bit different. History shows that we can have October land falling Hurricanes such as Jerry in 1989. We will continue to monitor the Tropics daily until we know with some certainty that we are done with the Historic 2017 Hurricane Season."

Thanks for the warning, srain. I pray that other factors will erase this possible scenario.

Hurricanes have hit Texas in November. The most recent was in 1839. So, it is possible for hurricanes to hit Texas in November. It is very rare.

Texas Hurricane History
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/txhur.pdf

It is from 2010 and likely should be updated due to Harvey.