2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

Tropical Weather Discussions and Analysis
Post Reply
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

We are a couple of weeks away from the start of the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season. Time to turn our attention toward the Tropics and what they may hold for the Western Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Coast of North America.

Early season indicators suggested that El Nino conditions may develop leading to near or slightly below average Tropical Cyclones in our Basin, but as time has moved closer to the official starting date for Hurricane Season, the Hemispheric indicators suggest the possibility of more neutral conditions as well as some increase in Tropical Cyclone development potential in the North Atlantic Basin. While it is too soon to know with any certainty exactly where or when any Tropical Cyclones will develop and if they will make landfall in any particular location, we do need to remember that it only takes one Hurricane or Major Hurricane impacting the United States Coastline to make for a very bad season.

It is estimated that close to 2.5 Million new residents have moved to the SE Texas Region since Hurricane Ike made landfall back in September 2008. Most of these new residents have never experienced a Hurricane. We in the SE Texas Region are particularly vulnerable with many contributing factors that keep Federal, State and Local Officials up at night. These factors include Storm Surge, Inland Flooding, lack of strong building codes leaving our homes vulnerable to wind damage well away from the Coast as well as Major Construction Projects on our Highway Systems that will lead to difficulties if an evacuation is required for our Storm Surge susceptible neighborhoods and Cities. Along with Storm Surge come the large threat to our Petrochemical Infrastructure which would be extremely vulnerable if a Major Hurricane came our way.

Now is the time to make your Personal and Family Hurricane Action Plan. In the days and weeks ahead, I hope that the vast knowledge of our KHOU Weather Forum Community will come together and provide your knowledge, experience and expertise in how YOU prepare for Hurricane Season. We will dive into the new products available from the National Hurricane Center to assist you and your family to prepare if Tropical Troubles come our way in the days, weeks and months ahead. #ItOnlyTakesOne #HurricaneStrong
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
BlueJay
Posts: 938
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:47 am
Location: Alden Bridge-The Woodlands, Texas
Contact:

Hurricane IKE was in 2008, the last storm that really socked it to us. We had no electricity for 3 days even though most of our wires are buried underground in our neighborhood.

Listen to the pros on this board and Heed the call to prepare now.
Last edited by BlueJay on Wed May 24, 2017 9:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Katdaddy
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2501
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
Location: League City, Tx
Contact:

Its almost that time again as we approach the official start of the 2017 hurricane season. The NW GOM has been quiet for many years since IKE will it remain quiet through 2017? We shall see.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

As many of us have expected, Eric Blake of the National Hurricane Center suggests we may be headed toward a very busy 2017 Hurricane Season...
06122017 Eric Blake NHC DCILqLjXcAALrEe.jpg
Eric Blake Verified account @EricBlake12 · 40m40 minutes ago
Getting harder to avoid a busy Atlantic #hurricane season forecast. No #ElNino + SSTs changing since April- looks more like the active era
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Eric Blake Verified account @EricBlake12 · 33m33 minutes ago
Rather strong wave for June in the eastern Atlantic just off the African coast. Very aclimatological but an interesting feature to watch...
06132017 12Z E ATL avn-l.jpg
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

It appears the Tropical Atlantic will be quiet the next couple of weeks while the Eastern Pacific begins to become a bit more active which is somewhat typical for July.

The current Hemispheric Pattern suggest we are in a subsidence phase regarding the MJO and no Kelvin Wave activity.

I am watching for the possibility for more favorable conditions around mid July into early August as the Madden Julian Oscillation moves East of the Dateline and toward the Pacific Mexico Coast and then enters the Western Caribbean around July 11th to 15th. The morning Update MJO and CCKW graphics suggest we may need to turn our attention toward the Tropics as we get a bit closer to Peak Season in the Atlantic Basin.
Attachments
06272017 twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png
06272017 twc_mjoCCKW_vp200.png
06272017 PHOTO-Tropical%20storm%20and%20hurricane%20days%20Atlantic%20basin-%2081916-NOAA-831x546-Landscape.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

The Climate Prediction Center Update for Global Tropics Hazards suggest a potential increase for Tropical Development across the Atlantic beginning next week and spreading West during the Week 2 timeframe.
Attachments
06282017 gth_full.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

We re beginning to see signs that suggest the possibility of the Tropical Atlantic may be near an active period and several features will be worth monitoring the next couple of weeks. SAL or African Dust has been a major inhibitor across the Main Development Region and even into Texas as we experienced some of that African Dust last week. Allergies and respiratory irritation has impacted my folks including myself.
07092017 09Z SAL splitEW.jpg
TD 4 near could get its act together as it crossed the Atlantic ahead of a large Saharan Arid Layer (SAL), but is showing some increased thunderstorm activity as it passes well North of the Leeward Islands.

A very robust tropical wave exited the West Coast of Africa and a very low latitude and has maintained and even increased thunderstorm activity associated with the TW. The NHC made mention of this wave in the 8:00 AM EDT Tropical Weather Discussion...
07092017 09Z E Atl avn-l.jpg
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is just offshore the coast of Africa along a
position from near 16N17.5W to 11N18W and to near 06.5N18W. It is
moving westward at about 10 kt. Both water vapor imagery and the
Total Precipitable Water (TPW) imagery animation confirm that deep
tropical moisture continues to increase over and near the
environment of this wave, mainly attributed to it being entrenched
within a very pronounced monsoonal flow that has set up along and
off the coast of W Africa. With this moisture in place, deep
convection near the wave has increased since 24 hours ago.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 240 nm
west of the wave from 08N-11N. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is within 30 nm of 13N24W.


Image

The mid/upper level stirring flow suggests this strong wave will move along to the W throughout most of its journey across the Atlantic this week and will be nearing the Windward Island next weekend. Interestingly, the reliable computer models have been hinting off and on for almost a week that this area of disturbed weather may attempt to organize as it nears the Eastern Caribbean Sea in about 10 days.

There is another fly in the ointment concerning a very favorable Hemispheric Pattern with a wet phase of the MJO and a robust CCKW entering the Western Atlantic Basin around the time this wave approaches the Eastern Caribbean Sea.
07092017 twc_globe_mjo_vp200.png
07092017 twc_mjoCCKW_vp200.png
While it is far too soon and many thousand of miles away, we will continue to monitor the progression of this potential tropical disturbance as we steadily march faster toward Peak Hurricane Season in the North Atlantic Basin.
06272017 PHOTO-Tropical%20storm%20and%20hurricane%20days%20Atlantic%20basin-%2081916-NOAA-831x546-Landscape.png
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
BlueJay
Posts: 938
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:47 am
Location: Alden Bridge-The Woodlands, Texas
Contact:

This is very eerie to re-read these posts. And look at the chart that srain posted back on July 9th! Golly!
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3982
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

Real-Time North Atlantic Ocean Statistics by Storm for 2017
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Rea ... thatlantic

Current Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is 125.2. With 11 storms including Jose, the ACE/Storm is 11.4. The average ACE/Storm between 1870 to 2016 is 9.4.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

A brief Update this morning regarding the Tropics. I am seeing some indications that our Hemispheric Pattern may become favorable once again for Tropical Development across the Atlantic Basin. We have a vigorous Tropical Disturbance about 800 miles WSW of the Cabo Verde Islands moving West at 15 MPH. The NHC is monitoring another tropical wave to the East just off the West Coast of Africa.
09142017 8 AM TWO two_atl_5d0.png
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Jose, located several hundred miles east-northeast of the
southeastern Bahamas.

1. A tropical wave located about 800 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands continues to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
early next week while it moves westward at around 15 mph across the
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Another tropical wave, located between the west coast of Africa and
the Cabo Verde Islands, is producing a large area of disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system is
possible over the next few days before upper-level winds become less
favorable. The system is forecast to move westward at 10 to 15 mph
across the far eastern tropical Atlantic for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


I suspect the vigorous Tropical Disturbance that will near the Central Atlantic this weekend will be our next INVEST and will likely become Lee at some point over the next 5 to 7 days as it approaches the Caribbean Islands. The ECMWF suggests a potential brush of the SE United States Coast and the GFS suggests a track more Westerly into the Caribbean Sea. The Madden Julian Oscillation looks to become rather favorable for the Western Hemisphere regarding potential tropical development, so it will be worth monitoring. We now see that La Nina is developing as the sea surface temperatures continue to cool rather dramatically across the Pacific Ocean from the West Coast of South America into the Central Pacific Equatorial waters. I believe that we could see an additional 5-8 named storms and possibly another Major Hurricane before the 2017 Hurricane Season ends November 30th. Typically our Texas threat for Tropical Systems end around September 20th or so, but this years has been a bit different. History shows that we can have October land falling Hurricanes such as Jerry in 1989. We will continue to monitor the Tropics daily until we know with some certainty that we are done with the Historic 2017 Hurricane Season.
09132017 MJO NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif
Attachments
09142017 1045Z avn-l.jpg
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
BlueJay
Posts: 938
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:47 am
Location: Alden Bridge-The Woodlands, Texas
Contact:

"I believe that we could see an additional 5-8 named storms and possibly another Major Hurricane before the 2017 Hurricane Season ends November 30th. Typically our Texas threat for Tropical Systems end around September 20th or so, but this years has been a bit different. History shows that we can have October land falling Hurricanes such as Jerry in 1989. We will continue to monitor the Tropics daily until we know with some certainty that we are done with the Historic 2017 Hurricane Season."

Thanks for the warning, srain. I pray that other factors will erase this possible scenario.
User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19612
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Location: Maggie Valley, NC
Contact:

Eric Blake Verified account @EricBlake12 · 47m47 minutes ago
Hope everyone is strapped in because with a possible #LaNina forming, that increases the chances of an active end of #hurricane season
09162017 Eric Blake DJ2bDBIVAAAxCBB.jpg
Philip Klotzbach‏Verified account @philklotzbach · 15m15 minutes ago
Replying to @EricBlake12

La Nina & anomalously warm Caribbean means more low-level vorticity in the SW Caribbean - prime late-season Atl hurricane formation zone.

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3982
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

BlueJay wrote:"I believe that we could see an additional 5-8 named storms and possibly another Major Hurricane before the 2017 Hurricane Season ends November 30th. Typically our Texas threat for Tropical Systems end around September 20th or so, but this years has been a bit different. History shows that we can have October land falling Hurricanes such as Jerry in 1989. We will continue to monitor the Tropics daily until we know with some certainty that we are done with the Historic 2017 Hurricane Season."

Thanks for the warning, srain. I pray that other factors will erase this possible scenario.
Hurricanes have hit Texas in November. The most recent was in 1839. So, it is possible for hurricanes to hit Texas in November. It is very rare.

Texas Hurricane History
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/txhur.pdf

It is from 2010 and likely should be updated due to Harvey.
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 30 guests