Tracking the Tropics:

Tropical Weather Discussions and Analysis
TexasBreeze
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It is producing deep cold convection and rounding out and about to break out another pinhole eye.
In the models it is a much weaker system on 2nd approach after the loop.
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recon found ~940mb overnight which was close to to a 10-15mb drop from earlier. I think we will flirt with a cat 5 before it makes landfalls.
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srainhoutx
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My friend Kelly from Seabrook (a reservist with the 53rd) is flying the current teal 75 mission sampling Matthew right now. Once they return, I should get some excellent radar screen grabs from eyewall penetrations. I will try to upload those later today.
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unome
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srainhoutx wrote:My friend Kelly from Seabrook (a reservist with the 53rd) is flying the current teal 75 mission sampling Matthew right now. Once they return, I should get some excellent radar screen grabs from eyewall penetrations. I will try to upload those later today.

here's some, radar & current recon/sat with vortex info - compliments of Tropical Atlantic.com & HurricaneCity.com

http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cg ... r&latest=1

see more options: http://hurricanecity.com/recon/

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Thursday morning briefing from Jeff:

Historic hurricane event for Florida!

Matthew…a most powerful hurricane…will bring devastating damage to much of the FL east coast, SE GA and SC

Preparations to protect life and property must be completed now in the hurricane warning area…failure to evacuate barrier islands and low lying areas under evacuation orders will result in almost certain death.

Discussion:
A hurricane warning is in effect from Golden Beach, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA including West Palm Beach, Daytona Beach, Cape Canaveral, St. Augustine, Jacksonville, and Savanah.

A Hurricane Watch is issued from Altamaha Sound, GA to the South Santee River, SC including Charleston

As feared last night the morning USAF mission has found the pressure has fallen from 962mb to 944mb or a drop of 18mb in the last several hours and flight levels winds of 132kts were observed. Matthew is now within range of the Miami radar and shows as a well defined major hurricane and this is supported by the USAF radar images. The current intensity is set at 125mph, but intensification to landfall in FL is likely and Matthew is now forecast to reach the coast as a 145mph powerful category 4 hurricane…capable of extreme damage.

UPDATE: As I am typing dropsonde in the eyewall of Matthew has recorded a pressure now down to 941mb and surface winds of 129kts (149mph)

Based on the current radar and aircraft fixes it appears that the major city of Nassau in the Bahamas will take a direct hit shortly from the eyewall of Matthew. Nassau is currently gusting to 65mph and a smaller island just outside the core of Matthew recorded sustained winds of 87mph gusting to 91mph

To show how rare of an event this will be…since 1851 there has never been a major hurricane landfall on the coast of FL north of Stuart, FL…or roughly from N of West Palm Beach all the way to Jacksonville.

Track:
A worst case track to bring tremendous devastation to nearly the entire east coast of FL…the sheer size of the areas that will be severely impacted by this hurricane is overwhelming and will require a massive response.

Matthew is moving toward the NW at 10-12mph this morning and this motion is expected to continue today with a turn to the NNW tonight and the N late Friday. On this track the core and eye of Matthew will reach the FL coast near or either side of West Palm Beach late tonight and then track either along or just inland of the coast northward to near Jacksonville.

Tropical storm force winds will begin to reach SE FL by this afternoon and hurricane force winds will arrive into the southern portion of the Hurricane Warning area by early to mid evening. Locations in the hurricane warning area can be expected to experience sustain hurricane force winds for 8-12 hours with 3-4 hours of winds sustained at or above 130mph.

Intensity:
Matthew is forecasted to strike FL as a 145mph powerful category 4 hurricane. The last category 4 hurricane to strike the US was Charley in 2004 in SW FL.

Data from the current USAF mission shows a well defined major hurricane will deep convection having wrapped completely around the eye feature. There appears little to prevent intensification of the hurricane to landfall on the FL coast and it is very likely Matthew will landfall as an extremely powerful category 4 storm. Due to the track of the center right along the coast…only minor weakening is expected as Matthew will remain close enough to the water sea surface and much of eastern FL is flat. It is likely Matthew will bring category 4 winds to much of the heavily populated eastern FL coast.

Impacts:
Impacts along the FL east coast will be devastating to catastrophic.

Wind:
Sustained winds of 130-145mph will be possible along the barrier islands from N of West Palm Beach northward to near St. Augustine including Cape Canaveral (buildings at KSC are designed to withstand 125mph). Most structures on the barrier islands will feel the full effects of these winds and suffer tremendous damage. Inland from the barrier islands winds of 75-100mph will be possible with damage mainly to roofs and trees. Tropical storm force winds will be possible over nearly the entire peninsula of FL. East central FL has a large mobile home and RV population and these area will suffer catastrophic damage

Storm Surge:
Life threatening coastal inundation from sea water along the barrier islands is likely along with battering waves.

Based on the latest forecast track…powerful winds in the northern eyewall of Matthew will drive a storm surge and massive waves against the ENE facing barrier island. Water levels are forecasted to rise 6-9 feet above ground level on the barrier islands which will overtopped, breach, and destroy dune protection. Large bettering waves will be directed into the first floors of structures on the beach front including condos, hotels, and resorts that populate the barrier island. Massive beach erosion will undermine structures to the point of total collapse and will be swept away.

Storm surge values of 6-8 feet will be possible along the SE GA coast where inundation of the coastal area is much more significant including portions of Savanah, St Simon Island, and Tybee Island. It is still not sure exactly how close Matthew will track to those locations which will have a large impact on the surge inundation values.

For portions of the SC coast storm surge values of 4-6 feet are currently expected above ground level which would inundate portions of Charleston and much of the populated beach areas. As with GA, the exactly values in this portion of the track are still uncertain as a closer track to the SC coast would result in much larger values than currently indicated.

Failure to comply with mandatory evacuation orders for coastal storm surge or mobile home areas will place lives in grave danger.



Storm Surge Inundation based on latest NHC Advisory:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... n#contents

Haiti Update:
Since there has been very little information from Haiti, the USCG flew a recon mission yesterday to survey the southern coast which was impacted by the eyewall of Matthew. They estimate that 99% of the structures were destroyed. The USS George Washington has been deployed to the southern Haiti coast. It is likely that the death toll in Haiti will be significant.

Below is the Hurricane Local Statement from NWS Melbourne, FL detailing the likely impacts of Matthew along the FL east coast:

HURRICANE MATTHEW LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL AL142016
544 AM EDT THU OCT 6 2016

THIS PRODUCT COVERS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW CLOSING IN ON FLORIDA...
...STRONGEST HURRICANE TO AFFECT THIS AREA IN DECADES...

NEW INFORMATION

---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

- NONE

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

- A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND VOLUSIA

COUNTY...ORANGE...SEMINOLE...SOUTHERN BREVARD

COUNTY...OSCEOLA...INDIAN RIVER...OKEECHOBEE...ST.

LUCIE...MARTIN...COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY AND NORTHERN BREVARD

COUNTY

- A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN LAKE

COUNTY...SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY



* STORM INFORMATION:

- ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FL OR ABOUT 300

MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT PIERCE FL

- 24.2N 77.1W

- STORM INTENSITY 125 MPH

- MOVEMENT NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH

SITUATION OVERVIEW

------------------

DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL

BAHAMAS, IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY NEAR OR OVER THE EAST CENTRAL COAST

OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.



EXTREMELY DANGEROUS, LIFE-THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST

IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW CONTAINING THE

STRONGEST WIND GUSTS, STORM SURGE AND HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS WILL MOVE

ALONG OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTLINE VERY

EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.



WIDESPREAD EXTENSIVE TO DEVASTATING WIND IMPACTS WILL BE FELT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS LOFTED BY EXTREME WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BREACHING

STRUCTURES, UNPROTECTED WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EFFECTS SUCH AS THESE

RANGING FROM THE COAST TO WELL INLAND HAVE NOT BEEN EXPERIENCED IN

CENTRAL FLORIDA IN DECADES.



LOCAL WINDS WILL EXCEED WHAT OCCURRED DURING THE HURRICANES OF

2004. ANY EVACUATIONS AND STRUCTURE PREPARATION SHOULD BE COMPLETED

THIS AFTERNOON. TRAVEL WILL BE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED BEGINNING AT DUSK.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES.



INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE, THE THREAT IS HIGH FOR SUSTAINED HURRICANE

FORCE WINDS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME FRIDAY MORNING WITH A HIGH THREAT FOR

STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FARTHER INLAND OVER LAKE COUNTY.



WITH AN EXPECTED TRACK CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE, THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE

THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING IS HIGH. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO

7 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD

COUNTIES, WITH 3 TO 5 FEET OF INUNDATION EXPECTED OVER MARTIN AND

SAINT LUCIE COUNTY BARRIER ISLANDS.



LARGE BREAKING WAVES ALONG BEACHES WILL PEAK BETWEEN 12 TO 18 FEET AND

PRODUCE ROUGH, POUNDING SURF RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OF

COASTAL FLOODING FROM DUNE BREACHING, ALONG WITH VERY SEVERE BEACH

SCOURING AND SAND DUNE EROSION. COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE AGGRAVATED BY

HIGH TIDE ESPECIALLY IN VOLUSIA COUNTY.



SIGNIFICANT DOWNWIND PILING AND SURGING OF WATER WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE

INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY, LAGOONS, AND INLETS. THE CLOSE APPROACH OF

MATTHEW`S EYE TO THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST MEANS PROPERTIES

FACING EAST AND WEST ALONG THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY WILL BE

SUSCEPTIBLE TO WIND DRIVEN PILING OF WATER. ADDITIONALLY, WIND DRIVEN

PILING OF WATER WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BANKS OF THE SAINT JOHNS

RIVER IN LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.



HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN SQUALLS, WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND

FREQUENCY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER

AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. SATURATED SOILS IN MANY AREAS

FROM HEAVY SEPTEMBER AND EARLY OCTOBER RAINFALL WILL HOLD VERY LITTLE

ADDITIONAL WATER BEFORE WATER QUICKLY BEGINS TO POND, ESPECIALLY IN

LOW LYING AND URBAN AREAS. STANDING WATER WILL BE CAPABLE OF QUICKLY

RISING, ESPECIALLY IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS, AND COULD ENTER HOMES AND

BUSINESSES DURING MATTHEW`S PASSAGE.



RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED

TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER. TAKE ACTIONS TO ENSURE YOUR READINESS PLANS HAVE

BEEN COMPLETED.



POTENTIAL IMPACTS

-----------------



* WIND:

PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING WIND HAVING POSSIBLE DEVASTATING

IMPACTS ACROSS ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN

THIS AREA INCLUDE:

- STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO STURDY BUILDINGS, SOME WITH COMPLETE ROOF

AND WALL FAILURES. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES. DAMAGE

GREATLY ACCENTUATED BY LARGE AIRBORNE PROJECTILES. LOCATIONS

MAY BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS OR MONTHS.

- NUMEROUS LARGE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED ALONG WITH FENCES AND

ROADWAY SIGNS BLOWN OVER.

- MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE FROM LARGE DEBRIS, AND MORE WITHIN URBAN

OR HEAVILY WOODED PLACES. MANY BRIDGES, CAUSEWAYS, AND ACCESS

ROUTES IMPASSABLE.

- WIDESPREAD POWER AND COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGES.



ALSO, PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING WIND HAVING POSSIBLE EXTENSIVE

IMPACTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.



* SURGE:

PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING SURGE HAVING POSSIBLE EXTENSIVE

IMPACTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN

THIS AREA INCLUDE:

- LARGE AREAS OF DEEP INUNDATION WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING

ACCENTUATED BY BATTERING WAVES. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS,

WITH SEVERAL WASHING AWAY. DAMAGE COMPOUNDED BY FLOATING

DEBRIS. LOCATIONS MAY BE UNINHABITABLE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD.

- LARGE SECTIONS OF NEAR-SHORE ESCAPE ROUTES AND SECONDARY ROADS

MAY BE WASHED OUT OR SEVERELY FLOODED. FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEMS

AND BARRIERS MAY BECOME STRESSED.

- SEVERE BEACH EROSION WITH SIGNIFICANT DUNE LOSS.

- MAJOR DAMAGE TO MARINAS, DOCKS, BOARDWALKS, PIERS, AND OTHER

COASTAL STRUCTURES. MANY SMALL CRAFT BROKEN AWAY FROM MOORINGS,

ESPECIALLY IN UNPROTECTED ANCHORAGES WITH SOME LIFTED ONSHORE

AND STRANDED.



ALSO, PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING SURGE HAVING POSSIBLE

SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE COAST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

* FLOODING RAIN:
PROTECT AGAINST LIFE-THREATENING RAINFALL FLOODING HAVING POSSIBLE
EXTENSIVE IMPACTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. POTENTIAL

IMPACTS INCLUDE:

- MAJOR RAINFALL FLOODING MAY PROMPT MANY EVACUATIONS AND RESCUES.
- RIVERS AND TRIBUTARIES MAY RAPIDLY OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS IN
MULTIPLE PLACES. SMALL STREAMS, CREEKS, CANALS, AND DITCHES MAY
BECOME DANGEROUS RIVERS. FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEMS AND BARRIERS MAY
BECOME STRESSED.
- FLOOD WATERS CAN ENTER MANY STRUCTURES WITHIN MULTIPLE
COMMUNITIES, SOME STRUCTURES BECOMING UNINHABITABLE OR WASHED
AWAY. MANY PLACES WHERE FLOOD WATERS MAY COVER ESCAPE ROUTES.
STREETS AND PARKING LOTS BECOME RIVERS OF MOVING WATER WITH
UNDERPASSES SUBMERGED. DRIVING CONDITIONS BECOME DANGEROUS.
MANY ROAD AND BRIDGE CLOSURES WITH SOME WEAKENED OR WASHED OUT.

* TORNADOES:

PROTECT AGAINST A DANGEROUS TORNADO EVENT HAVING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. POTENTIAL IMPACTS

INCLUDE:

- THE OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN HINDER THE EXECUTION
OF EMERGENCY PLANS DURING TROPICAL EVENTS.
- SEVERAL PLACES MAY EXPERIENCE TORNADO DAMAGE WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS SEEING CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE, POWER LOSS, AND
COMMUNICATIONS FAILURES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS

----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
FOR THOSE UNDER EVACUATION ORDERS, LEAVE AS
SOON AS PRACTICAL WITH A DESTINATION IN MIND. GAS UP YOUR VEHICLE
WELL AHEAD OF TIME. BE SURE THAT YOU TAKE ALL ESSENTIAL MATERIALS
FROM YOUR EMERGENCY SUPPLIES KIT. LET OTHERS KNOW WHERE YOU ARE GOING
AND WHEN YOU INTEND TO ARRIVE.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
NOW IS THE TIME TO COMPLETE ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY IN ACCORDANCE WITH YOUR EMERGENCY PLAN. OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
SHOULD BE WRAPPED UP AS SOON AS POSSIBLE BEFORE WEATHER CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE.

FAILURE TO ADEQUATELY SHELTER MAY RESULT IN SERIOUS INJURY OR LOSS OF
LIFE. ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY
ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED. REMEMBER, DURING THE STORM 9 1 1 EMERGENCY
SERVICES MAY NOT BE ABLE TO IMMEDIATELY RESPOND IF CONDITIONS ARE
UNSAFE. THIS SHOULD BE A BIG FACTOR IN YOUR DECISION MAKING.

IN EMERGENCIES IT IS BEST TO REMAIN CALM. STAY INFORMED AND FOCUSED
ON THE SITUATION AT HAND. EXERCISE PATIENCE WITH THOSE YOU ENCOUNTER.
BE A GOOD SAMARITAN AND HELPFUL TO OTHERS.

IF RELOCATING TO A NEARBY SHELTER OR TO THE HOME OF A FAMILY MEMBER
OR FRIEND, DRIVE WITH EXTRA CAUTION, ESPECIALLY ON SECONDARY ROADS.
REMEMBER, MANY BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS WILL BE CLOSED ONCE HIGHER WINDS
ARRIVE. ALSO, IF YOU ENCOUNTER WATER COVERING THE ROAD, SEEK AN
ALTERNATE ROUTE. ALWAYS OBEY OFFICIAL ROAD SIGNS FOR CLOSURES AND
DETOURS.
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unome
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937mb - a drop of 27mb from 8 AM yesterday

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long range radar (corrected)
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srainhoutx
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Zoomed in visible shot of Matthew and wider view of Matthew and soon to be Hurricane Nicole to the East.
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NASA/MFSC Interactive, Rapid Scan, Visible, centered at 8 AM position

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=30
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HGX take on Matthew:



.TROPICAL...
As of 830Z IR satellite imagery Hurricane Matthew looks well
organized. Latest Air Force Recon has reported pressure falls down
to 945 mb and higher flight level/SFMR winds which would be
consistent with a more robust eye-wall structure seen in satellite
imagery. Matthew is well on its way to more intensification as it
tracks through the Bahamas. Hurricane Matthew will continue on a
NW/NNW track towards the Atlantic Florida coast. Latest guidance
looks good for a track parallel to the Florida coast and then curving
just off the South Carolina coast. The latest 00Z GFS continues a
trend to loop Matthew back towards Florida but it becomes sheared
apart while doing so. The ECMWF has a similar track but maintains
mid/low level vortex. Hurricane Matthew will continue to test the
limits of tropical forecasting both in track and in intensity.
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We have kin folk in the Fort Lauderdale area, so we will try to give you all updates as they warrant. I can say, we were just there the first into second week of August...
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latest vortex - 939mb

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Son and his family is in Clermont, FL. Will post any info he provides
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Very dangerous Matthew nearing the Gulf Stream. Pressure continues to fall even with a potential Eyewall Replacement Cycle underway...


HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane just reached Matthew and measured 121
kt at the 700-mb level and a minimum pressure of of 936 mb. Until
the plane finishes sampling the circulation, the initial intensity
is kept at 120 kt. There some indications that an outer eyewall is
trying to form, and perhaps an eyewall cycle will occur. If so, some
weakening could occur, but there could also be fluctuations in
intensity while the hurricane moves toward the east coast of Florida
that are not explicitly shown here. After 24 hours, the combination
of land interaction and a significant increase in the shear should
cause weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the
SHIPS guidance during the next day or so, and it follows the trend
of the consensus thereafter.

Satellite and aircraft fixes show that Matthew is still moving
toward the northwest or 325 degrees at 11 kt. The steering flow has
not changed, and Matthew should continue to move around the western
periphery of the subtropical ridge located over the western Atlantic
during the next 24 to 36 hours. This portion of the NHC forecast is
very close to the multi-model consensus. After that time, the
hurricane will become embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies
and should turn sharply eastward for a day or so. Then the steering
pattern is forecast to change again, and the track forecast becomes
highly uncertain. Both the GFS and the ECMWF turn a much weaker
Matthew southward and southwestward. The NHC forecast follows the
southwestward trend, and is in the middle of these two global
models.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm
surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the northwestern Bahamas
today, and along extensive portions of the east coast of Florida
tonight.

2. Evacuations are not just a coastal event. Strong winds will
occur well inland from the coast, and residents of mobile
homes under evacuation orders are urged to heed those orders.

3. Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and residents
of high-rise buildings are at particular risk of strong winds. Winds
at the top of a 30-story building will average one Saffir-Simpson
category higher than the winds near the surface.

4. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel
to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at
any one location. Only a small deviation of the track
to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major
hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and
Georgia. Modest deviations to the right could keep much of the
hurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in
impacts are possible in the hurricane watch and warning areas in
northeast Georgia and South Carolina.

5. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for
Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge
Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,
but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of
inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In
addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend
out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding
potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in
Florida and Georgia.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 26.2N 78.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 27.6N 79.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 29.6N 81.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 31.2N 81.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 32.1N 80.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 31.5N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 29.0N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 27.5N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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As promised, our Seabrook Hurricane Hunter sent some awesome pictures from Mission Teal 75 that departed at midnight and sampled Matthew into the morning hours of daylight as it passed East of Andros and was nearing Nassau. Credit goes to Kelly. Thanks for allowing me to share with the KHOU Weather Board.. ;)

Eyewall penetration via onboard radar:

Image

Image

Image

Image

Inside the eye after dawn:

Image

Image

Image

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THANK YOU for posting these awesome pictures!@
True heroes!
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
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srainhoutx
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Friday morning briefing from Jeff:

Major hurricane Matthew pounding the FL east coast.

107mph wind gust recorded at a NASA Wind Tower on Cape Canaveral

Life threatening storm surge imminent for NE FL, GA, and SC

Discussion:
Coastal radars and data from multiple USAF missions into Matthew indicate the maximum sustained winds have weakened to 120mph. Multiple FL coastal sites have reported wind gusts over 80mph this morning…but the western eyewall has remained about 15 miles off the coast keeping those sustained 100-120mph just offshore (miles can make a big difference in this type of situation).Most recently Daytona Beach has been gusting to 67mph. There have been reports of structural damage to roofs in both Daytona Beach and Cape Canaveral where winds gusted to 82mph at the Kennedy Space Center. Cape Canaveral did go through the western eyewall of Matthew and it is possible winds gusted upwards of 110-115mph in that area.

Matthew’s large eye has tracked about 30 miles off the FL east coast overnight keeping the core of devastating winds in the western eyewall just offshore. As mentioned that western eyewall did pass over Cape Canaveral, but the FL east coast bends back westward moving northward toward St Augustine and Jacksonville. Matthew is moving toward the NNW and on this motion the center of the hurricane will remain 10-20 miles offshore, but the western eyewall may brush into the beach areas.

Track:
Matthew will continue to move NNE and then turn N and NE right along the NE FL, GA, and SC coasts today into Saturday. The center may come very close to the SC coast and could bring the damaging core winds into the SC coast on Saturday around Charleston. Matthew will then be blocked by high pressure building southward over the eastern US and turn toward the SE and S and eventually the SW and approach the northern Bahamas again in about 5 days. There remains much uncertainty in this part of the forecast and how Matthew may interact with hurricane Nicole to its east.

Intensity:
Matthew has weakened some overnight due to a large portion of the circulation moving over FL and a very slow eyewall replacement cycle. The inner eye shown yesterday on radar has finally dissipated and the outer eyewall has been slow to contract although some of the last few hours of radar frames show this might be starting to occur. It is unlikely at this point that Matthew will intensify and some slow weakening is more favored as more of the circulation moves inland over the SE US.

Impacts:

Main impacts will be life threatening storm surge in coastal NE FL, GA, and SC including Jacksonville, Savannah, and Charleston

Wind:
Compared to what that area was facing yesterday…looking much better with respect to wind impacts. Still expect 90-110mph wind gust along the coast which can certainly produce damage, but that is not the 130-140mph that were expected yesterday. It remains to be seen if the western eyewall actually crosses the coast and that is where sustained 80-100mph winds would be possible over the next several hours from Daytona Beach to Jacksonville. Tropical storm force winds are moving into the GA and SC coasts and inland as far west as Orlando where gusts to 48mph have been recorded.

Storm Surge:

Bigger threat is the potential for life threatening sea water rise of 7-12 feet above the ground along the NE FL coast all of coastal GA and nearly all of coastal SC.

Sunrise images this morning from working tower cameras on the FL east coast at Daytona Beach show the current storm surge has reached to the dune line on the barrier islands and is some places the dunes were breached by wave action. Water levels are rising at Jacksonville both at the beach front and within the St Johns River and also along the GA coast at Tybee Island, Brunswick, St Simon Island, and Savanah.

A hurricane approaching this portion of the US coast at this angle is rare and the ENE/E winds on the northern side of Matthew’s wind field is starting to drive the Atlantic Ocean into the concave shape of the coast from Jacksonville to Charleston which is going to result in the storm surge becoming trapped and being forced to rise vertically to higher heights than what has happened down the coast around West Palm Beach and Cape Canaveral

Many of the coastal areas along the GA and SC coast are only 4-6 feet above sea level and a storm surge of the expected values will greatly impact these locations and spread inland along inlets, creeks, and rivers. Current indications suggest this may be a record storm surge for the Tybee Island and Savannah area and may rival hurricane Hugo in Charleston Harbor. Portions of Downtown Charleston may see water levels up to 3 ft and portions of Savannah near the Savannah River could see water levels up to 6-9 ft above the ground.

Storm Surge Inundation Map:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... n#contents

Rainfall:
Rainfall will begin to become enhanced as Matthew moves northward toward the SC/NC coasts and begins to interact with an upper level jet stream. This will help to enhance lift of the tropical moisture and produce excessive rainfall of 8-15 inches along the SC/NC coast. This combined with the coastal storm surge flooding will likely lead to significant interface of the sea water and fresh water flooding over portions of the SC coast.

Remember that most deaths during the landfall of a tropical cyclone are for water either the storm surge or rainfall flooding.
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