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Tropical Weather Discussions and Analysis
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worrybug

Andrew wrote:Just for reference, the HWRF shows a strong hurricane NE of the Bahamas . GFDL barely has a tropical low approaching the Bahamas

And nothing approaching TX, I presume.
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worrybug wrote:
Andrew wrote:Just for reference, the HWRF shows a strong hurricane NE of the Bahamas . GFDL barely has a tropical low approaching the Bahamas

And nothing approaching TX, I presume.

HWRF doesn't go far enough out. Still too soon to say really, but trend is closer to a gulf coast storm if it develops.
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jeff
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cperk wrote:
jeff wrote:A lot of strong ridging in the extended range along the E coast. Heights of 591 to 594dm over the SE US this weekend. Ensemble tracks are more important at this juncture than the operational runs. Hard to find a way for this to escape north with the forecasted steering pattern in place on many of the models. Something to watch.
Jeff should the Houston/Galveston area be paying attention to 99L.
It is always good to keep an eye on things...most of us would have never thought Ike would get here from where it was when it formed. I don't like the fact that there is fair agreement on a good amount of ridging over the SE US this weekend that would effectively block a N/NW track. Models tend to have less ridging than what actually transpires...we have seen this time and time again. I certainly think this could get into the SE/E Gulf at least. There are some negative factors for 99L to overcome...the biggest being dry air and maybe some shear if the GFS is correct on its upper air strung out trough over the SW ATL. Model consistency is in the dumps between both runs and the different models so they are of little help...but there is fair agreement on the overall pattern that will be in place....a lot of ridging! Ensembles can be of better help with the current situation and many of them are showing the W to WNW bend over the Bahamas as whatever is there feels the ridging to the NW.
Skyguy

Andrew wrote:
worrybug wrote:
Andrew wrote:Just for reference, the HWRF shows a strong hurricane NE of the Bahamas . GFDL barely has a tropical low approaching the Bahamas

And nothing approaching TX, I presume.

HWRF doesn't go far enough out. Still too soon to say really, but trend is closer to a gulf coast storm if it develops.

Image

Dear Andrew and Worrybug.

I'm not going to get hung up on any one scenario, here, but, based on the recent changes in the steering forecast, I think residents of the Florida Peninsula and Mobile, Al., as well as all other E Gulf communities, should monitor the progress of 99L, if/when it becomes better organized and develop into a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days. No one I've spoken to thinks this is eventually going to be a TX storm, though there aren't any guarantees on that.
Skyguy

jeff wrote:
cperk wrote:
jeff wrote:A lot of strong ridging in the extended range along the E coast. Heights of 591 to 594dm over the SE US this weekend. Ensemble tracks are more important at this juncture than the operational runs. Hard to find a way for this to escape north with the forecasted steering pattern in place on many of the models. Something to watch.
Jeff should the Houston/Galveston area be paying attention to 99L.
It is always good to keep an eye on things...most of us would have never thought Ike would get here from where it was when it formed. I don't like the fact that there is fair agreement on a good amount of ridging over the SE US this weekend that would effectively block a N/NW track. Models tend to have less ridging than what actually transpires...we have seen this time and time again. I certainly think this could get into the SE/E Gulf at least. There are some negative factors for 99L to overcome...the biggest being dry air and maybe some shear if the GFS is correct on its upper air strung out trough over the SW ATL. Model consistency is in the dumps between both runs and the different models so they are of little help...but there is fair agreement on the overall pattern that will be in place....a lot of ridging! Ensembles can be of better help with the current situation and many of them are showing the W to WNW bend over the Bahamas as whatever is there feels the ridging to the NW.

Unfortunately, I've just seen the GEFS and it's showing a big cluster over New Orleans, LA. I don't like that.
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Models responding to the synoptic scale pattern of strong ridging showing more and more leftward trending. Ensembles have been split between a west track into the Gulf and N track toward the SE US coast over the last 48 hours. It is becoming clear that the leftward track is increasingly the more likely outcome. Still not overly worried about intensity just yet even with the strong EURO and HWRF runs...but think the GFS is too weak. Factors certainly to overcome in the next 48-72 hours for development.
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Fiona track adjusted left/west

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/gr ... p_5W.shtml

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0234.shtml

Fiona is expected to turn northwestward with some deceleration as it heads for a break in the subtropical ridge. The official track forecast is very close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN.
Skyguy

jeff wrote:Models responding to the synoptic scale pattern of strong ridging showing more and more leftward trending. Ensembles have been split between a west track into the Gulf and N track toward the SE US coast over the last 48 hours. It is becoming clear that the leftward track is increasingly the more likely outcome. Still not overly worried about intensity just yet even with the strong EURO and HWRF runs...but think the GFS is too weak. Factors certainly to overcome in the next 48-72 hours for development.

But it has to clear Florida first if I read the models right. I had a gut feeling that people on the E Gulf Coast (at least) would be the ones to have to really watch it.
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Skyguy wrote:
jeff wrote:Models responding to the synoptic scale pattern of strong ridging showing more and more leftward trending. Ensembles have been split between a west track into the Gulf and N track toward the SE US coast over the last 48 hours. It is becoming clear that the leftward track is increasingly the more likely outcome. Still not overly worried about intensity just yet even with the strong EURO and HWRF runs...but think the GFS is too weak. Factors certainly to overcome in the next 48-72 hours for development.

But it has to clear Florida first if I read the models right. I had a gut feeling that people on the E Gulf Coast (at least) would be the ones to have to really watch it.

Right now everyone needs to keep an eye on it but don't worry too much about it. There are a lot of questions to be answered and few solutions. Hopefully by the middle of the week we have a better idea of what will happen.
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Skyguy

Andrew wrote:
Skyguy wrote:
jeff wrote:Models responding to the synoptic scale pattern of strong ridging showing more and more leftward trending. Ensembles have been split between a west track into the Gulf and N track toward the SE US coast over the last 48 hours. It is becoming clear that the leftward track is increasingly the more likely outcome. Still not overly worried about intensity just yet even with the strong EURO and HWRF runs...but think the GFS is too weak. Factors certainly to overcome in the next 48-72 hours for development.

But it has to clear Florida first if I read the models right. I had a gut feeling that people on the E Gulf Coast (at least) would be the ones to have to really watch it.

Right now everyone needs to keep an eye on it but don't worry too much about it. There are a lot of questions to be answered and few solutions. Hopefully by the middle of the week we have a better idea of what will happen.

May I please share a personal landfall guess (big G) with you?
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