TS Earl: Near Southern Bay of Campeche

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houstonia
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Andrew wrote:
Scott747 wrote:Aside from 97l....

Take a breath before checking the long range of the 0z GFS. Classic track and setup for a big Texas cane. Keep in mind that its extremely long range but it already has mine and josh's attention.
Yea ridging sets up over central/eastern Gulf Coast. Could be cause for concern if synoptics stay the same.
I'm having trouble following, can you please elaborate?
thanks!
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Looking at mid level heights (500mb or so) would indicate a pretty decent ridge located over the eastern and central parts of the gulf coast. Hurricanes follow the path of least resistance so a more westward track would be predicted as a result.
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97L up to 70/80

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a strong and fast-moving
tropical wave located over the east-central Caribbean Sea about 200
miles south of the Dominican Republic has increased and become
significantly better organized overnight. Although this system still
lacks a closed surface circulation, recent satellite-derived surface
wind data and ship observations indicate that tropical-storm-force
winds of 40 to 45 mph are occurring on the northern and eastern
areas of the large disturbance. If this recent development trend
continues, then a tropical storm could form later today when the
wave moves into the central Caribbean Sea, or by early Tuesday as it
approaches Jamaica and moves into the western Caribbean Sea. Locally
heavy rains and gusty winds are expected over Hispaniola today, and
reaching Jamaica and Cuba by late Monday as the system moves
westward at 20 to 25 mph. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in
the western Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of
this strong disturbance. For additional information on this system,
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

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wxman57
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I wouldn't be too focused on development chances in the outlooks. Its presentation this morning on satellite/microwave indicates it may already be TS Earl. I have little doubt it will be named within 24hrs. May well be a hurricane prior to reaching the Yucatan. Good news for Texas is that all model ensemble members keep it south of Texas in the BoC or SW Gulf.
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08012016 8 AM EDT two_atl_5d0.png
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a strong tropical wave
located over the central Caribbean Sea about 350 miles
east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to show signs
of organization. Earlier satellite wind data indicate that the
system is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph, and recent satellite
and ship observations suggest that a circulation is gradually
becoming better defined. If this development trend continues, a
tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight as the
system moves westward over the west-central Caribbean sea at 20 to
25 mph. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds, perhaps to tropical storm force, are likely along the
southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti today. Tropical
storm conditions are likely to occur over Jamaica by this afternoon
or evening, and could reach the Cayman Islands overnight. Interests
in these areas and elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should
continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

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srainhoutx
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It appears to me this is already a Tropical Cyclone South of Haiti.
08012016_1145_goes13_x_vis1km_high_97LINVEST_40kts-1007mb-157N-692W_100pc.jpg
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srainhoutx
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An atmospheric conducive Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave has likely assisted 97L in organizing and that feature should allow for further development.
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is there a recon plane scheduled to fly into invest 97L?
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srainhoutx
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ticka1 wrote:is there a recon plane scheduled to fly into invest 97L?
Currently scheduled for tomorrow afternoon/evening.
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srainhoutx
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The morning Ensemble Spaghetti Diagrams suggest Tampico may well be the eventual landfall point at Day 6 in the Western Gulf.
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but isnt it always the case until a LLC forms the models do not have a good handle on 97L?
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Monday morning briefing from Jeff:

Atlantic tropical wave 97L continues westward over the Caribbean Sea with better defined organization.

Discussion:
Overnight satellite images and long range radar loops from San Juan indicate that the tropical wave and associated mid level low pressure system with 97L has become better organized and a tropical cyclone is likely forming. Satellite overpass indicates surface winds of 40-45mph along the sharp wave axis, but all available data still does not suggest a low level center has formed which prevents to initiation of advisories by NHC at this time.

A deep convective blow up over the mid level center has maintained itself overnight and the system is located on the western edge of a 200mb anti-cyclone (high pressure aloft) which is favorable for development. This wave axis is slowing as it continues westward and will continue to slow and this should allow sustained deep convection to finally work the mid level center to the surface.

Track:
Global forecast models and their ensemble members have come into much better agreement during the past 24 hours and keep the system moving generally toward the W into the western Caribbean Sea, then across the southern Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche and eventually eastern MX well south of TX. While heights aloft will weaken by the end of the week over TX, they are not forecasted as low as yesterday indicating more high pressure along the US Gulf coast which should help drive the system more westward. While there is not a defined low level center to track at this time, there is decent agreement among the various models on this forecast track and the confidence has increased compared to yesterday.

Intensity:
When the system finally closes off a low at the surface, intensification will begin. There appears little, besides time over water to prevent intensification as the system will be moving over some of the warmest waters in the Atlantic basin with favorable upper levels winds (little to no shear) and a large moist plume surrounding the system. Low level convergence will also increase over the western Caribbean Sea as trade winds “pile up” in this region which will help with rising surface air.

A tropical storm is very likely as the system moves south of Jamaica and the system may approach hurricane intensity as it nears the eastern coast of the Yucatan on Thursday. This is in agreement with the global model guidance intensity forecasts. The feature will weaken as it crosses the Yucatan, and much of the intensity in the Bay of Campeche will be determined where the system moves back over the warm waters and how long it will be over those waters.

Impacts:
There is expected to be little to no impact along much of the TX coast from this system. Wave Watch III has increased swells reaching the TX coast this weekend, but this is dependent on the size of the circulation and intensity of the system in the southern Gulf.

While rain chances will increase Friday into the weekend with a surge of deep tropical moisture, the majority of the banding features on the northern side of the circulation envelop will remain south of TX.

Current NHC tropical weather outlook indicates the chance of development over the next 5 days is at 90%.
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Busy Reconnaissance Schedule ahead and a Mission has been tasked for later today.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT MON 01 AUGUST 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUGUST 2016
         TCPOD NUMBER.....16-067

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA....CARIBBEAN SEA
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72             FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 73
       A. 02/1130, 1730Z                A. 02/2330, 03/0530Z
       B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE           B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
       C. 02/0715Z                      C. 02/1930Z
       D. 16.1N 79.0W                   D. 16.2N 81.8W
       E. 02/1100Z TO 02/1730Z          E. 02/2300Z TO 03/0530Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT              F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 43           FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 74
       A. 03/0930Z                      A. 03/1130, 1730Z
       B. NOAA3 0405A                   B. AFXXX 0505A CYCLONE
       C. 03/0600Z                      C. 03/0800Z
       D. 16.4N 83.9W                   D. 16.6N 84.3W
       E. 03/0900Z TO 03/1200Z          E. 03/1100Z TO 03/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT              F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
       B. P-3 FLIGHTS DEPARTING EVERY 12 HOURS AT 0600Z AND 1800Z.
    3. REMARKS: TEAL 71 IS FLYING A RESOURCES PERMITTING LOW LEVEL
       INVEST INTO THIS SYSTEM TODAY. ESTIMATED TAKEOFF 01/1630Z. 

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srainhoutx
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I will not be surprised if we see increased development once the low and mid level vorticity nears the Windward Passage (between the Western tip of Haiti and Eastern Cuba) and clears any disrupted inflow from the high terrain Hispaniola.
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Rip76
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With each new satellite view I see, it appears to be gaining latitude.

Maybe that's just clouds getting blown off the top though.
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Rip, I thought the same thing, that the movement was a little WNW. Recon should give us a better handle on things.
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Sure does look like it is getting a little better organized
ticka1
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as it has been on prior storms until the models can intialize on a LLC they will change. But we dont need a Tropical system here in SE texas so the model clusters going to Mexico is okay with me.
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recon on it's way ! finally, data !!!

http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cg ... ing=cesium

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 18:11Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5300
Mission Purpose: Investigate third suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 02

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: 18:00Z on Monday
Coordinates: 24.9N 87.4W
Location: 354 statute miles (569 km) to the W (274°) from Key West, FL, USA.
Pressure Altitude: 7,020 meters (23,031 feet)
Flight Level Wind: From 90° at 13 knots (From the E at ~ 14.9 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Air Temperature: -17°C (1°F)
Flight Level Dew Point: -35°C (-31°F)
Weather (within 30 nm): Scattered clouds (trace to 4/8 cloud coverage)
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Radar Capability: Yes
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,630 geopotential meters (25,033 geopotential feet)
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wxman57
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Got a ship report at 16.3N/73.2W. SSE 35 kts. That's just south of that ball of convection centered near 16.9/73.2. Ship reports are often unreliable, but it does indicate TS winds present.
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