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invest_al942012.invest
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201208170358
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2012, DB, O, 2012081700, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942012
AL, 94, 2012081606, , BEST, 0, 106N, 120W, 15, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2012081612, , BEST, 0, 107N, 136W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2012081618, , BEST, 0, 109N, 155W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 94, 2012081700, , BEST, 0, 110N, 172W, 20, 1010, DB, 34

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GORDON...LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE AZORES...AND ON TROPICAL STORM HELENE
LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST AT
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM HELENE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN

06Z Tracks & Intensity:

Overall models for this one keep shifting westward and for reasons Jeff Linder mentioned it will need to be watched. We'll have to see what the east coast trough does.

94L is looking a bit more organized via microwave imagery. Also the HWRF and GFDL will be running with the 18Z output and tentative RECON has been tasked as it gets closer to the Caribbean Islands.

I'm thinking this one may very well be the first major Hurricane in the Atlantic Basin this season.

For what it's worth, the 18Z GFDL is not impressed with developing 94L while the HWRF suggests a moderate Tropical Storm moving through the Antilles.

06Z Tracks & Intensity:

12Z Tracks & Intensity:

I know things in the tropics change from day to day, model run to model run, etc....but this storm is gonna be a fun one to track no matter how strong it gets, no matter where it heads...what gets me I guess is how the models have changed so much as far as intensity and track....I know I know its the tropics

The NHC has a lot of interest in 94L RECON has been tasked as well as a high altitude G-IV mission scheduled. That data will be very valuable for future model data and will provide for a better forecast of this potential storm.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SUN 19 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-092

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
SUSPECT AREA EAST OF ISLANDS.
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: LOW LEVEL INVEST FOR
21/1800Z NEAR 15.5N AND 53.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES
22/0600Z. A NOAA GIV FLIGHT FOR 22/0000Z.

While we are days away and many things will change throughout the time period as RECON data is ingested into the model output, the GFS does raise an eyebrow and suggests a well developed tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico. We will see.

Oooh, things are going to get very interesting this week as we watch 94L.

Are y'all thinking about 10 days out on this one?

The 12Z Euro suggests a Yucatan threat...

texoz wrote:Oooh, things are going to get very interesting this week as we watch 94L.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal288.gif

Looks like a major hurricane over Texas. Don't want that on our door step.

texoz wrote:Oooh, things are going to get very interesting this week as we watch 94L.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal288.gif

That's one way to usher in September. I'd rather not though!!!!!

djjordan wrote:

texoz wrote:Oooh, things are going to get very interesting this week as we watch 94L.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal288.gif

That's one way to usher in September. I'd rather not though!!!!!

Indeed - wouldn't that be something to have another "I" storm pay us a visit (Ike 2008 and Issac, if this storm gets that name)

A nickname for Isaac is IKE!