Tropical Depression Isaac:

[rselby0654]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 20:23Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 27
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 19:30:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°14'N 85°56'W (26.2333N 85.9333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 245 miles (394 km) to the WSW (241°) from Tampa, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,280m (4,199ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NNE (12°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 100° at 54kts (From the E at ~ 62.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NNE (19°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 982mb (29.00 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,543m (5,062ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,544m (5,066ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the north
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Wind Outbound: 74kts (~ 85.2mph) in the southwest quadrant at 19:52:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 74kts (~ 85.2mph) in the southwest quadrant at 19:52:30Z

Looks like Isaac is now a moderately strong category 1 hurricane. I'm no meteorologist but I know that 85.2mph winds is definitely a hurricane. Isaac is clearly NOT moving northwest either. It will be an interesting night to say the least.

[srainhoutx]

The eye is wobbling around. The only obs that support a Hurricane were in the SW quadrant. We'll see if Forecaster Stewart thinks that is enough for an upgrade shortly.

[DPD]

Anyone have the link to the navy models ?

[srainhoutx]

Stay a Tropical Storm

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
2100 UTC MON AUG 27 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA BORDER TO DESTIN HAS
BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN... AND LAKE
MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER TO THE AUCILLA RIVER
* INTRACOASTAL CITY TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF SABINE PASS TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 86.2W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 15SE 15SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 80SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 86.2W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 85.9W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 27.4N 87.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...165NE 150SE 80SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 28.6N 89.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 80SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 29.5N 90.0W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 30.3N 90.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 130SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 35.9N 92.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 38.7N 89.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.4N 86.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[srainhoutx]

The forecast is now calling for 100 mph at landfall making Isaac a Cat 2 Hurricane at that time.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
400 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2012

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED INTENSIFICATION PROCESS APPEARS TO HAVE FINALLY
STARTED BASED ON REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT AND FROM NEARBY NOAA BUOY 42003. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
DECREASED BY AT LEAST 7 MB SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE HIGHEST
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OBSERVED HAVE BEEN 74 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT AND THE HIGHEST BIAS-ADJUSTED SFMR WINDS ARE NEAR 58 KT.
THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 60 KT.

ISAAC WOBBLED WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A REPRESENTATIVE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10. THE LATEST 12Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
BETTER AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTAL AREAS OVER THE NEXT
36-48 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS...HOWEVER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
DIVERGENT ON THE HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION...FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. THE GFS
AND ECMWF...OUR MOST RELIABLE MODELS... NOW HAVE VERY SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS THROUGH DAY 5...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
BETWEEN THOSE TWO MODELS.

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE ISAAC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST CLOUD
PATTERN OVER THE CENTER ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING EYE IN RECON DATA.
SATELLITE DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB. RECON WIND DATA INDICATE THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS ALSO
PULLED INWARD TO ABOUT 30 N MI. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS
BEEN DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...DRY MID-LEVEL AIR
STILL LURKS JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CDO FEATURE...
WHICH COULD BE ENTRAINED INTO THE INNER CORE AT ANY TIME AND
DISRUPT THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF DRY
AIR...THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES ONLY MODEST DEVELOPMENT FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS DUE TO THE VERY WARM WATERS THE
CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER AND THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW REGIME THAT ISAAC IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 24 HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

BECAUSE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...IT IS
IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. THE SLOW FORWARD
SPED OF AROUND 5 KT AFTER LANDFALL WILL RESULT IN A HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOOD SITUATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 26.4N 86.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 27.4N 87.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 28.6N 89.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 29.5N 90.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 29/1800Z 30.3N 90.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1800Z 32.2N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 31/1800Z 35.9N 92.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/1800Z 38.7N 89.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[djmike]

So does he still "visually" look to be drifting west or has that changed?

[Bluefalcon]

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE ISAAC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
PAST 6 HOURS...really? Starting to look ragged to me, cloud tops are starting warm.

[biggerbyte]

I personally have not looked again since leaving that link. Take a look yourself and see with your own eyes.

[srainhoutx]

It may look ragged, but a 9mb drop in pressure since 4 AM CDT suggests Isaac may well be on the way to finally wrapping up.

[Bluefalcon]

Recon just punched the center...About 20 miles NNW from the last fix...vortex should be out soon.

[sambucol]

Are we out of the woods, so to speak, now with the slightest possibility of Isaac traveling more west in our direction?

[Bluefalcon]

We are about to have a double recon in Isaac...Recon #28 (P-3 Orion) is about to join Recon #27 (WC-130J)

[rselby0654]

Are we out of the woods, so to speak, now with the slightest possibility of Isaac traveling more west in our direction?

Isaac already is heading in our direction. We are not out of the woods yet.

[sambucol]

Are we out of the woods, so to speak, now with the slightest possibility of Isaac traveling more west in our direction?

Isaac already is heading in our direction. We are not out of the woods yet.

First day back at school, so I haven't been able to keep up with the storm today. Hasn't Isaac made the more northerly turn toward Louisiana? I thought that was what would indicate the high pressure was protecting Texas. Wxman posted something recently about us being protected by the high pressure. Is that high pressure weakening?

[redneckweather]

WRONG. Isaac is NOT heading in our direction and we ARE out of the woods. That is a FACT.

[CAK]

Wow, that thing has hit a brick wall. Looking at water vapor, radar and satellite it appears to be backing out to the East and North...

[tireman4]

WRONG. Isaac is NOT heading in our direction and we ARE out of the woods. That is a FACT.

Wow you must have a crystal bal! And it's a FACT..wow. I am of the "we are not out of the woods until it makes landfall" school of thought.

Jcarr, you just paraphrased Dr Neil Frank there. Over and over he has stated those words....

[rselby0654]

Are we out of the woods, so to speak, now with the slightest possibility of Isaac traveling more west in our direction?

Isaac already is heading in our direction. We are not out of the woods yet.

First day back at school, so I haven't been able to keep up with the storm today. Hasn't Isaac made the more northerly turn toward Louisiana? I thought that was what would indicate the high pressure was protecting Texas. Wxman posted something recently about us being protected by the high pressure. Is that high pressure weakening?

Just look at the radar loop and you be the judge. It's not rocket science.

[srainhoutx]

Eyewall is contracting...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 21:50Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2012
Storm Name: Isaac (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 27
Observation Number: 14
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 21:08:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°28'N 86°09'W (26.4667N 86.15W)
B. Center Fix Location: 249 miles (401 km) to the WSW (245°) from Tampa, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,276m (4,186ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 54kts (~ 62.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 46 nautical miles (53 statute miles) to the SE (128°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 240° at 72kts (From the WSW at ~ 82.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles) to the SE (129°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 982mb (29.00 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the west
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 74kts (~ 85.2mph) in the southwest quadrant at 19:52:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the ESE (120°) from the flight level center