Sure does going to post Allan's page pretty soon. Looks like the trof is not as strong and it could sneak under the ridge. Also the system does not look as organized so far which would be more likely with all the ULL's around.
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spadilly wrote:
everything starting to agree now...
Consensus? Nah ... but it is becoming clearer that this system could threaten anyone from NE Mexico to Florida. Those who said 96L was a "done deal" for Florida were a bit premature.
MONSOON DEPRESSION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
PREFERENCE: 12Z CANADIAN/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE IN TRACK/BELOW AVERAGE IN TIMING
THE 12Z GFS IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL SPREAD WHILE THE
12Z NAM/12Z UKMET LIE ON THE WEST SIDE WITH THIS SYSTEMS LOCATION
BY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN THE STRONGEST. THE 00Z
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON A 12Z CANADIAN/12Z
ECMWF COMPROMISE SOLUTION. DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD...THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE COL IN THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW /WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS
FLORIDA/. WHILE THIS SHOULD MEAN AN EVENTUAL STAIR-STEP TRACK
TOWARDS TEXAS /WHICH THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS
ONLY OCCASIONALLY EMBRACED DURING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS/...THE GFS
HAS OTHER IDEAS PARTICULARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. FOR
NOW...PREFER TO STAY NEAR THE BEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING TO
MINIMIZE ERROR WHICH FAVORS A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO A 12Z ECMWF/12Z
CANADIAN COMPROMISE WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE CLOSE TO 1004 HPA WITH
THE KNOWLEDGE THAT ONCE THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST
STRENGTHENS/EXPANDS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT
RANGE/BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO
PROGRESS AT A DECENT CLIP TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH ON ITS EXPECTED TRACK
SHAPE...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE IN THIS MODEL PREFERENCE DUE
TO POTENTIALLY LARGE ALONG-TRACK TIMING ERRORS. SEE THE LATEST
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR
CURRENT INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
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spadilly wrote:
everything starting to agree now...
Consensus? Nah ... but it is becoming clearer that this system could threaten anyone from NE Mexico to Florida. Those who said 96L was a "done deal" for Florida were a bit premature.
Exactly! Timing along with intensity of the storm will be the main determining factors. The earlier this thing gets going the better possibility the trough could pick it up but with all the ULL's around that could cause issues.
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The 12Z Euro ensembles still suggest a lot of uncertainty. What is becoming a bit clearer, the upper air pattern for the Western Gulf improves over time suggesting an anticyclonic flow aloft that would be conducive to ventilating any surface low in the Western Gulf. I suspect that once we see the Hurricane models and additional Hurricane Hunter data ingested into the computer models, things will become a bit clearer later into the weekend. As a precaution, now is the time to dust of those Hurricane Plans and perhaps restock those supplies that you might need should tropical troubles head our way. Those supplies will last for the rest of season if we remain in the clear with this disturbance.
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This page is looking depressing with hardly anybody online for what could be Debby this weekend and what could head to Texas by early to mid next week. If models continue the westerly movement, I hope this forum shows a little bit more life by tomorrow...
Belmer wrote:This page is looking depressing with hardly anybody online for what could be Debby this weekend and what could head to Texas by early to mid next week. If models continue the westerly movement, I hope this forum shows a little bit more life by tomorrow...
I suspect things will perk up once the word gets out and we see more model agreement. No doubt the night crew will become more active and with our knowledgeable Pros chiming in, the board will begin to pop should conditions trend toward a bonafide Texas/Louisiana threat. NWS Houston/Galveston said it perfectly in their afternoon Marine Forecast:
MARINE...
TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 1-1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. FAIRLY LONG FETCH OF MODERATE ENE WINDS ACROSS THE NRN GULF
WHICH IS THE CULPRIT. NOT EXPECTING MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS THAT WOULD CAUSE MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LEVELS.
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ALONG THE BEACHES SHOULD BE RUNNING
1.8-2.0 FEET. SO WE`LL BE JUST BELOW THE TOTAL 3.7 FEET CRITERIA
(ASTRONOMICAL + METEOROLOGICAL) WHEN WE TYPICALLY SEE SOME MINOR
COASTAL FLOOD ISSUES AT THE LOWEST LOCATIONS.
OF COURSE THIS WILL ALSO TIE INTO WHAT EVENTUALLY EVOLVES IN THE
GULF REGARDING POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE MESS NEAR THE
YUCATAN. SEVERAL...SEVERAL DIFFERING MODEL SOLNS AND ANALYSIS IN
PLAY AND REALLY NOT WORTH FLIP-FLOPPING THE FCST EVERY 6 HOURS
WITH EACH MODEL RUN FOR SOMETHING THAT DOESN`T HAVE A CLOSED
CIRCULATION YET. THAT BEING SAID THERE ARE ENOUGH MODEL SOLNS THAT
DO KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF LONGER (AND SOME FURTHER WEST) TO
WARRANT NUDGING SEAS UP DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FCST. NEEDLESS TO SAY... MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT SEVERAL CHANGES IN THE
FCST BETWEEN NOW AND MID-LATE NEXT WEEK.
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Time to really begin watching the GOM now that we have an official Invest and LLC over the extreme N Yucatan with a ton of moisture to the NE and E across the SE GOM and NW Caribbean Sea.
96L remains unorganized this evening near sunset. A broad surface low is currently onshore across the Northern Yucatan Peninsula. A trough axis extends E toward Cuba and the Florida Keys. Upper level wind shear is still rather strong as well.
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 585 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND ALSO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SATELLITE
DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE
SLOWLY FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO
IMPROVING AND ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF COAST
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Ok, so if we get Debby, that makes 4 named storms in the first month. I've been checking records and the only year I see where anything like this happened was 1968, when three storms formed in June. This "average season" is off to a quick start. Anyone else know of another year as active as early?
Very broad surface circulation has finally developed over the southern Gulf being born out of the monsoon trough. Circulation is very broad and I do not expect to see anything change quick as it is going to take time to consolidate.
As for the models...well the EURO and CMC have swung back to the W Gulf and the GFS remains aimed at FL. EURO and CMC ensembles also support the W Gulf while the GFS ensembles are pretty split between the tow camps. Nothing has really changed in the model world over the past 24 hours as they continue their wild swings between runs and models. Only difference is that we do now have a very broad circulation to fix into the models and after the plane flies tomorrow that should help. I am starting to like the more western solution better as I do not see this system gaining intensity quick and the trough then passing it by to the NE and the system then comes under the influence of the southern plains high as it builds eastward. The weak steering currents which will be in play also support a track more toward the west giving the system time to be left behind by the trough.
Regardless, tides are already elevated and with winds backing even more to the E/ENE this weekend, that will help keep tides elevated through the weekend. By early next week, we should start to see increased swells and that will pile even more water onto the coast, with tides possibly reaching minor flooding levels by that point. Should 96L advance toward the W/NW Gulf then even higher tides can be expected and for a prolonged period of time due to the slow motion.
