Post Tropical Cyclone Debby. Exiting E Over The Atlantic

[srainhoutx]

Hurricane Hunter RECON has been tasked for a future 96L (potential Debby)

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JUN 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-034

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 --
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 22/1600Z
D. 23.0N 89.0W
E. 22/1730Z TO 22/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A MISSION
AT 23/1800Z NEAR 24.5N 89.0W

[srainhoutx]

A broad area of low pressure is exiting the northern Yucatan Peninsula into the Southern Gulf. A general N to NW motion is observed with a trough axis extending E of the surface low pressure.

[tireman4]

Man, that is just a garbled mess down there. Wow.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests a broad strung out low pressure system with multiple areas of vorticity streaming NE along the trough axis into Florida, The Canadian once again rakes the Louisiana/Upper Texas Coast with a storm as it misses the trough along the East Coast and is steering W beneath the developing Central US Ridge of High Pressure.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Ukmet also suggests a NW to W drifting storm along the Louisiana/Upper Texas Coast.

[Andrew]

CMC has been persistent for the last three runs but so has the EURO with sending it east towards Florida. I can't really put the gfs into conversation right now just because it doesn't look practical to me. 850mb vorticity jumps around way to much to be practical to me. Until the gfs becomes more realistic I feel like it is a battle between the cmc/ Ukmet and the Euro. It is concerning that both models continue to come in bullish but looking at shear potentials, especially for the east part of the gulf shear really looks like an issue and could limit development potential. Euro is up next lets see how that turns out.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF
COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Andrew]

Still can't locate a LLC. Seems like convection is still too extended to really do much. That paired with land location has temporarily hurt it but once it gets past the Yucatan development could begin. Should be an invest pretty soon imo.

[srainhoutx]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al962012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201206211759
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2012, DB, O, 2012062118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962012
AL, 96, 2012062118, , BEST, 0, 217N, 890W, 20, 0, DB,

[Portastorm]

Hmmm ... that 12z Euro run should raise a few eyebrows!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[Andrew]

Hmmm ... that 12z Euro run should raise a few eyebrows!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

Sure does going to post Allan's page pretty soon. Looks like the trof is not as strong and it could sneak under the ridge. Also the system does not look as organized so far which would be more likely with all the ULL's around.

[spadilly]

yeah...this is pretty interesting.

(for this who havent seen this before, click on the FWD button to animate it)

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Andrew]

Well looky there:

[Andrew]

168 around Corpus.

[spadilly]

everything starting to agree now...

[Portastorm]

everything starting to agree now...

Consensus? Nah ... but it is becoming clearer that this system could threaten anyone from NE Mexico to Florida. Those who said 96L was a "done deal" for Florida were a bit premature.

[srainhoutx]

HPC:

MONSOON DEPRESSION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
PREFERENCE: 12Z CANADIAN/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE IN TRACK/BELOW AVERAGE IN TIMING

THE 12Z GFS IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL SPREAD WHILE THE
12Z NAM/12Z UKMET LIE ON THE WEST SIDE WITH THIS SYSTEMS LOCATION
BY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN THE STRONGEST. THE 00Z
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON A 12Z CANADIAN/12Z
ECMWF COMPROMISE SOLUTION. DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD...THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE COL IN THE DEEP LAYERED FLOW /WHICH IS LOCATED ACROSS
FLORIDA/. WHILE THIS SHOULD MEAN AN EVENTUAL STAIR-STEP TRACK
TOWARDS TEXAS /WHICH THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS
ONLY OCCASIONALLY EMBRACED DURING THE PAST COUPLE DAYS/...THE GFS
HAS OTHER IDEAS PARTICULARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. FOR
NOW...PREFER TO STAY NEAR THE BEST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING TO
MINIMIZE ERROR WHICH FAVORS A SOLUTION SIMILAR TO A 12Z ECMWF/12Z
CANADIAN COMPROMISE WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE CLOSE TO 1004 HPA WITH
THE KNOWLEDGE THAT ONCE THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST
STRENGTHENS/EXPANDS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE END OF THE SHORT
RANGE/BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO
PROGRESS AT A DECENT CLIP TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH ON ITS EXPECTED TRACK
SHAPE...CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE IN THIS MODEL PREFERENCE DUE
TO POTENTIALLY LARGE ALONG-TRACK TIMING ERRORS. SEE THE LATEST
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR
CURRENT INFORMATION ON THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

[Andrew]

everything starting to agree now...

Consensus? Nah ... but it is becoming clearer that this system could threaten anyone from NE Mexico to Florida. Those who said 96L was a "done deal" for Florida were a bit premature.

Exactly! Timing along with intensity of the storm will be the main determining factors. The earlier this thing gets going the better possibility the trough could pick it up but with all the ULL's around that could cause issues.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro ensembles still suggest a lot of uncertainty. What is becoming a bit clearer, the upper air pattern for the Western Gulf improves over time suggesting an anticyclonic flow aloft that would be conducive to ventilating any surface low in the Western Gulf. I suspect that once we see the Hurricane models and additional Hurricane Hunter data ingested into the computer models, things will become a bit clearer later into the weekend. As a precaution, now is the time to dust of those Hurricane Plans and perhaps restock those supplies that you might need should tropical troubles head our way. Those supplies will last for the rest of season if we remain in the clear with this disturbance.

[Belmer]

This page is looking depressing with hardly anybody online for what could be Debby this weekend and what could head to Texas by early to mid next week. If models continue the westerly movement, I hope this forum shows a little bit more life by tomorrow...