Extreme Wildfire Danger: Texas Wildfires

[randybpt]

Ok...we are a week out from the non official end of summer anyone want to give a forecast I have heard everything from a cool front to some kind of tropical system affecting us next weekend. Surely there are some great minds with insight on all this..

[randybpt]

Great info...appreciate it. What has happened to this forum used to ask a question and actually get a response

[Andrew]

Give it more then a couple of hours for a response. Some of the models have been hinting at the ridge breaking down and more of gulf flow but I have seen this time after time so I am still hesitant to believe this. Here is the most recent gfs:





This could leave the door open for some sort of tropical mischievous but at this point it is too far out to have any confidence on the ridge shifting to the east and or breaking down.

Euro doesn't show much for us but there is a storm south in the BOC and the gfs has been hinting at this also for the last couple of runs. Only concerning thing about that is the models could just be confused with the lower pressure that sometimes occur in the BOC. As a result that would be a false alarm:



At this point things are looking better for some more moisture during that time period but still it is too far out to be certain of anything and my feeling is this is premature and this relief will not come before labor day weekend.

[srainhoutx]

The Euro is 'hinting' some disturbed weather near Labor Day. We will see...

[PaulEInHouston]

A few models continue to hint at the death ridge weakening a bit and then sliding East as the week progresses. It "appears" to move and setup camp near MO/TN area late week...from there, who knows what it might do. Should this come to pass (fingers/eyes/toes crossed) our excess heat days should come to an end and rain chances should start to rise. Regarding any tropical influence, yes, some models have picked up on a disturbance or two in the BOC and maybe GOM...something to watch for more model consistency though. I'll get more excited about tropical activity if more models start to "see" the same disturbances by this coming Tuesday...

[srainhoutx]

Labor Weekend is looking mighty wet. HGX mentioning up to 5 inches of rain by the 6th. That would be a big change after months of little to no rain and record breaking heat. Fingers crossed.

[PaulEInHouston]

Yes, pattern change for sure and I think/bet it's due to Irene and her large pattern influences. Will be interesting to see if the models keep sniffing out a low pressure in BOC or Carrib that may give the GOM a home brew. Should anything develop, chances of a U.S. affect would be almost a sure thing.

[srainhoutx]

HPC QPF totals through day 5...

[txflagwaver]

Looks like the Farmers Almanac is forecasting tropical weather in our area as well

[Ptarmigan]

Let's hope for rain. We could use it.

[srainhoutx]

Still looking like some rain for Friday and Saturday of the long Labor Day Weekend

[srainhoutx]

Although Jeff's morning e-mail discusses the heat of the past weekend, here are his thoughts regarding the upcoming Labor Day Weekend and the return of some rain for our drought parched area:

What a weekend with record heat…the hottest temperatures of this horribly hot summer, and the records fell!

BUSH IAH reached 109 on Saturday and 107 on Sunday shattering the daily record highs and tied the all-time record high of 109 on Saturday!

Large upper level high over the state will bake the area again today with highs in the 104-107 degree range and again above 100 on Tuesday. Big changes begin by late Wednesday as an upper level trough develops over the Gulf of Mexico and pushes toward the lower TX coast. At this same time deep tropical moisture currently noted over the western Caribbean Sea will be drawn northward on the east side of this trough into SE TX starting late Wednesday. PWS values which are bone dry at this time will surge into the 2.3-2.5 inch range by early Thursday morning….very tropical. Upper level ridge aloft split and one piece moving into the SW US and the other becoming an extension of the Bermuda ridge over the SE US. For the first time in months TX will lie in a weakened height field with very favorable rain making conditions.

Expect to see numerous showers/thunderstorms begin to advance toward the coast late Wednesday and inland early Thursday morning as deep tropical moisture surges inland. Favorable lift will continue into Friday and Saturday with morning coastal storms becoming inland afternoon storms as the seabreeze moves inland. These types of patterns can produce some slow moving clusters of activity near the coast overnight/early in the morning due to coastal speed convergence and this possibility will need to be watched for.

As for rainfall amounts, will go with a widespread 1-2 inches from Thursday-Sunday with isolated totals possibly of 3-5 inches especially near the coast. While we are in an incredible drought, factors appear favorable enough to overcome the dryness with this event given its tropical origin. While this will not be a drought buster, it could bring significant relief to a very parched state. Models have also been loosely trying the close off an area of low pressure over the western Gulf for the past few days, but are not consistent in their modeling of this feature and for now will leave everything as an open wave, but will watch closely for any attempts of a weak tropical system to form in the favorable ascent side of the upper trough.

Worst of the heat will be today and Tuesday, with moisture and clouds increasing on Wednesday and after, highs will lower into the lower 90’s by the end of the week and I would not be surprised if highs at some point were only in the upper 80’s if storms get going early enough.

A weak cold front with some minor cold air advection may reach the area by the start for next week keeping would could become a wet period going over the area.

Saturday Highs:
BUSH IAH: 109 (tied all-time record of 109 on 9-4-2000, record of 104 in 1990 shattered, hottest Aug day ever old record 108 in 1909)
Hobby Airport: 106 (broke record of 103 in 1990, tied hottest Aug day ever old record was 106 in 1962)
Galveston: 100 (broke record of 99 in 1990, only the 7th time Galveston has hit 100 degrees ever)
College Station: 109 (broke record high of 104 in 1990, tied hottest Aug day ever)
Austin Bergstrom: 108 (broke record of 105 in 1990)
Austin Mabry: 110 ( broke record of 106 in 1990)
San Antonio: 106 (broke record of 102 in 1990)
Waco: 110 (broke record of 106 in 1990, 2 degrees shy of all-time record high of 112 in 1969)
Victoria: 106 (broke record of 104 in 1912)
Corpus Christi: 102 (tied record of 102 in 1990)

Sunday Highs:
BUSH IAH: 107 (broke record of 101 in 1902)
Hobby: 103 (broke record of 98 in 1999)
College Station: 109 (broke record of 103 in 1928, tied previous day for hottest Aug day ever)
Waco: 109 (broke record of 104 in 1998)
San Antonio: 110 (shattered record of 101 in 1940, hottest Aug day ever old record was 108 in 1986)
Austin Bergstrom: 110 (shattered record of 102 in 1990)
Austin Mabry: 112 (shattered record of 104 in 1990, tied all-time record high of 112 on 9-4-2000)
Victoria: 109 (broke record of 103 in 1912, hottest Aug day ever)
Corpus Christi: 107 (broke record of 102 in 2005, hottest Aug day ever)
Cotulla: 111

2011 Days at or above 100 Degrees:
BUSH IAH: 38 (old record was 32 in 1980)
Hobby: 16 (old record was 13 in 1998/2000)
Conroe: 43 (old record was 42 in 1998)
Huntsville: 62 (old record was 43 in 1980)
College Station: 55 (record is 58 in 1917)
Austin Mabry: 73 (old record was 69 in 1925)
Austin Bergstrom: 60 (old record was 55 in 2009)
Del Rio: 77 (record is 78 in 1953)
San Antonio: 47 (record is 59 in 2009)
Waco: 76 (old record was 63 in 1980)
DFW: 62 (record is 69 in 1980)

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z GFS suggests a wet pattern ahead and a chance that something tropical tries to spin up along the NW Gulf...

[biggerbyte]

Happy days ahead. We could actually completely flip the coin in the weather department. What a ride this has been for everybody..

[srainhoutx]

HPC surface maps are out through day 7...

[srainhoutx]

I posted this in our Hurricane Central area, but thought it was worth reposting on our main page with the long Holiday Weekend ahead...

Nice and long discussion from Brownsville WFO this afternoon...

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...AND NOW IT GETS
INTERESTING. THE BIG PICTURE STRONGLY SUPPORTS A CHANGE FROM THE
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPERIENCED FOR MOST OF THE SUMMER TO A
MORE HUMID...WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND THUS LOWER TEMPERATURES AS
THE CALENDAR TURNS TO OUR RAINIEST MONTH OF THE YEAR ON AVERAGE.

AS IRENE AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXIT...THE "CANICULA" RIDGE WHICH
HAS BEEN PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NORTHWEST MEXICO
WILL SPREAD TEMPORARILY INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL OPEN THE
DOOR FOR DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF...INCLUDING THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COAST...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THEN THINGS GET DICEY. A WEAKNESS
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE RIDGES AS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. PORTION
REESTABLISHES WHILE THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE FLATTENS A BIT BUT HOLDS.
WITHIN THE WEAKNESS COMES THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FESTERING WEAKNESS
TO WRAP UP INTO A CLOSED LOW. SUCH CLOSED LOWS AT THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER 88 DEGREE WATER ARE
NOTHING BUT TROUBLE...AND SUCH HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR A NUMBER OF
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE PAST. A LOT STILL HAS
TO HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND THE WEEKEND...BUT THE 12Z GFS...12Z
ECMWF...12Z CANADIAN GEM ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH SOME KIND OF
DEVELOPMENT AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. QUESTIONS AS TO
WHERE...WHEN...HOW MUCH...AND FINAL TRACK CANNOT BE RESOLVED NOW.
NEEDLESS TO SAY ANYONE WITH LABOR DAY WEEKEND PLANS ON THE TEXAS
COAST NEED TO BE VIGILANT AND KEEP A SHARP EYE ON THE WEATHER.

AS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...INHERITED FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
RAISED RAIN CHANCES BASED ON QUICKER MOVEMENT OF INITIAL BURST OF
MOISTURE...AND THIS IS SPOT ON WITH RAIN CHANCES REACHING 50/50
NEAR THE COAST AND LOWER FARTHER INLAND. WITH THE CHANGE OF AIR
MASS AND DEVELOPING CONVECTION AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE HELD DOWN
IN THE 90S EXCEPT LOWER 100S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. MCALLEN AND FALFURRIAS MIGHT SQUEEZE ONE MORE 100
DEGREE DAY TO CLOSE AUGUST...WHICH WOULD TIE THE 29 DAYS OF AUGUST
2009.

HAVE RAISED RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY INTO THE NUMEROUS CATEGORY BASED
ON DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...MODEST VERTICAL MOTION...AND EITHER
MORNING DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF QUICKLY SENDING BOUNDARIES AND
WORKING ON UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE MID VALLEY TO PROVIDE GOOD
COVERAGE OUT TO AT LEAST THE HIDALGO/STARR COUNTY LINE. WITH THE
RAIN EXPECTED TO FEED OFF LOWER CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES THEN LEAVE
CIRRUS (AT LEAST) IN ITS WAKE HAVE LOWERED HIGHS TO OR A SHADE
BELOW GUIDANCE...UPPER 90S FAR WEST AND LOWER 90S JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE ELSE. WILL NOT MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND 2 INCHES IN A HURRY ARE NEVER OUT OF THE QUESTION
WITH THIS SETUP.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY`S FORECAST IS A BIT MORE DIFFICULT. AS
MENTIONED THIS TIME SUNDAY...THE INITIAL FORCING WILL BE CHANNELED
FROM THE WEST CENTRAL GULF TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AND
LOUISIANA...LEAVING THE VALLEY IN A BIT OF A DEAD ZONE. THAT
SAID...MEAN RH REMAINS AT OR ABOVE 70 PERCENT AND WHILE MUCH IS
HELD ABOVE 700 MB THERE IS ENOUGH EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW DOWN LOW TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ON FRIDAY AIDED BY DAYTIME
HEATING. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES LOWER INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S
SO DESPITE THE CLOUDS EXPECT AT LEAST 40 PERCENT COVERAGE ON
FRIDAY. SATURDAY IS INTERESTING IF YOU BELIEVE THE MOST RECENT
MODEL RUNS...WHICH SHOW DEEP LAYER /NORTHERLY/ FLOW WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN. HUNCH IS MORE OF AN OVERCAST DAY WITH
ENOUGH SURFACE WARMING TO TRIGGER SOME RAIN...BUT MUCH MAY BE
LIGHT AFTER ANY INITIAL CONVECTION DRIPPING FROM MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
THE THICKER CLOUDS EACH DAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AFTERNOON MAXIMA PEAK IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IN THE LOWER VALLEY AND AROUND 90 OR SO
ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT LOWER 90S WEST. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER OWING TO CLIMATOLOGY AND UNCERTAINTY ON FINAL
SITUATION...JUST A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON WHAT DEVELOPS ALONG OR
NEAR THE TEXAS OR NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST. FOR NOW HAVE EXTENDED
THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BELOW AVERAGE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES...AND PUSHED RAIN INTO THE MODERATE CATEGORY. AS FOR
WINDS...HAD TO DO SOME SURGERY BASED ON THE TRENDS BUT DID NOT
BITE COMPLETELY ON THE 25+ KNOT SPEEDS UNTIL WE GET A BETTER SENSE
OF THE SYSTEM`S DEVELOPMENT AND INTERACTION WITH ANY INCREASE IN
HIGHER PRESSURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AS ALWAYS...STAY TUNED
FOR DETAILS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Another record setting day yesterday with BUSH IAH reaching 107, but big changes appear on the horizon.

Potential for tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf of Mexico late this week/this weekend with significant impacts possible on the TX coast.

Massive upper level ridge which has been over TX for months will finally be breaking down over the next 24-48 hours with a piece of the ridge moving westward into the SW US and the other piece moving eastward into the SE US leaving a weakness in the height field over TX. While this is ongoing the tropical wave currently over the western Caribbean Sea will move WNW into the Gulf of Mexico on the east side of an upper level trough axis. Surge of deep tropical moisture was expected to arrive Wednesday, but based on the latest guidance appears that it will be delayed until Thursday now, but much of this depends on how much development takes place with the tropical wave in the next 48 hours. The current thinking is that the wave will remain fairly disorganized into Thursday so this should allow at least some moisture to spread NW toward the TX coast increasing rain chances on Thursday.

Friday-Early Next Week:
Nearly all guidance now develops a tropical cyclone off the TX coast this weekend, but the models are not consistent on where and which way the system may move. The ECMWF rapidly develops a surface low off the lower TX coast and then slowly meanders the system W toward S TX over the weekend with a large circulation impacting much of the coast. The GFS develops a surface low south of Louisiana and moves the system very slowly W and WSW over the weekend only moving from SE of Lake Charles to near Freeport in 3-4 days! The CMC and UKMET both do not show significant development, although the CMC did show development on it runs yesterday and sent a system toward S TX. NAM is probably the most aggressive in bringing a strong tropical storm/weak hurricane toward the upper TX coast this weekend, but this model shows fairly quick development in the next 24 hours which seems unlikely.

Given the consistency of the forecast models to develop a closed surface low over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend, it appears at least possible that some sort of tropical system will form. Upper level steering pattern is one of weak steering with short waves passing far enough north of TX to leave any tropical system behind and high pressure far enough east and west to be a little help also. Whatever develops will be very slow moving and possibly remain stalled off the TX coast for several days. In fact the GFS keeps the system off the TX coast into next week. Just about any motion would be possible, with the most likely at this point being a rare WSW motion along the TX coast as the models seem to be keying in on the SW US ridge being strong enough to impart a weak ENE steering low, but that flow is very weak.

Potential Impacts:
What looked like a straight forward increasing rain forecast yesterday has now had this wrench thrown into it. Depending on where the surface low actually forms and where is moves (if at all) will determine what kind of rain chances need to the carried forward this weekend. Appears the widespread wet weather late this week may need to be held off until the weekend or later depending on how the tropical system evolves. Deeper moisture should arrive Thursday and that lone along with the seabreeze should produce at least 30-40% coverage on Thursday and Friday. After that the forecast will completely hinge on the tropical system developing over the Gulf.

The modeling of this system looks similar to Frances (1998) with a large slow moving circulation taking days to move inland. Will likely need to start ramping up seas and tides in the weekend period tomorrow if models continue to show development, especially if it appears that it will be south of our area which places the upper TX coast on the onshore flow “dirty” side of things. Other than that will take the wait and see approach until guidance can come into better agreement.

Residents along the TX coast should review their hurricane plans and monitor weather forecast leading into the holiday weekend.

[srainhoutx]

HPC extended surface charts are out:

[randybpt]

Well guess its not the death to the ridge afterall, looks like we will be on west side if anything does develop sure was looking forward to wet labor day. But I see the rain Chances are dropping

[mckinne63]

I was so hopeful.