February Ends Warm and Dry

[wxman666]

Thought y'all might find it interesting that HGX is forecasting a slight chance of freezing drizzle for Hockley, TX (far Northwestern tip of Harris County) which is roughly 15 minutes or less from me (given Waller is only 20 away), which is pretty darn close. I have a gut feeling this forecast will change to a winter wx event for some, and it sounds like HGX might feel that way too, according to their afternoon AFD, of course, they'll need a few more model runs.

[wxman666]

Also, no POP numbers are identified for Wednesday night, which is interesting.

[tireman4]

Hockley is 45.96 miles from me in Humble ...interesting

[wxman666]

Hockley is 45.96 miles from me in Humble ...interesting

Keep watching it tireman. Forecast for Humble calls for 20% rain and lows in the 20's.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 2=-95.2647

[wxman666]

Looks like they're also expecting temps to fall throughout the day, with the high occurring in the morning.

[sambucol]

Looks like they're also expecting temps to fall throughout the day, with the high occurring in the morning.

All of SE Texas?

[Andrew]

GFS says close but nada:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

I am really really tired from this weekend so I am going off to bed. Hopefully I will be on this week.

[wxman666]

Looks like they're also expecting temps to fall throughout the day, with the high occurring in the morning.

All of SE Texas?

From my understanding, I believe so.

[wxman666]

GFS says close but nada:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

I am really really tired from this weekend so I am going off to bed. Hopefully I will be on this week.

Boy do I understand that. Rest up, I think we'll need to keep an eye on this Wednesday storm still.

[srainhoutx]

The Euro has come in a bit 'cooler' and does hint at a very close call. Austin/San Antonio/San Angelo are likely to have a wintry mix and Dallas/Ft Worth has issued a Winter Storm Watch...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 AM CST MON FEB 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE COAST AND IS EXITING THE REGION.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. AM STILL ON THE FENCE BUT AM LEANING TOWARD A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR TODAY. CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE REGION WILL ERODE AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH DRY AIR
AND LIGHT WINDS. AM EXPECTING MIN TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER
30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS
RETURNING. SEASONAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE LEVEL
WILL DEEPEN TO 0.80 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS...STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. MAX TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING AND FALL THROUGH THE DAY.
ECMWF COOLER THAN EITHER THE GFS OR CANADIAN. TEMPS MAY FALL BELOW
FREEZING BY EVENING SO WILL MAINTAIN MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
STILL PREFER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF. COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAYS FRONT. A SLOW WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

[wxman57]

GFS brings the front through around noon Wednesday with temps falling steadily afterward. Precip ends with the frontal passage (no post-frontal disturbance moving by). Relatively light freezes Thu/Fri (upper 20s) followed by a steady warm-up that could get our temps into the 80 degree range by Valentine's Day or shortly after.

Note that the Euro drives the 850mb freezing line all the way north into central Canada by day 10 as a deep upper low develops off the NW U.S. Coast. Big snow melt across the Plains after this week. Winter appears to be coming to an end for us.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z suite has started. There were some issues with balloon data from Shreveport and Lake Charles...

NCEP Operational Status Message
Mon Feb 7 13:37:50 2011 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 071337
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1333Z MON FEB 07 2011
THE 12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME.
OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE FOR NAM INGEST INCLUDED 14 ALASKAN...32
CANADIAN...69 CONUS...13 MEXICAN...AND 8 CARIBBEAN STATIONS.
12Z NAM RAOB RECAP...
CHS/72208 - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...10142.
SHV/72248 - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...10142.
PPG/91765 - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...10142.
MZT/76458 - CODE 10159.
YVP/71906 - SHORT TO 755 MB.
SJU/78526 - PURGED ALL MOISTURE DATA...SPURIOUS VALUES.
MFR/72597 - PURGED TEMPS/MOISTURE 758-731 MB...WET BULB EFFECT.
LCH/72240 - PURGED TEMP/MOISTURE AT 249 MB...SUPER ADIABATIC.
CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...
THE ONGOING CWD WILL EXPIRE AT 17Z TODAY. NCEP DOES NOT ANTICIPATE
AN ADDITIONAL CWD DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
$$
HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[texoz]

GFS brings the front through around noon Wednesday with temps falling steadily afterward. Precip ends with the frontal passage (no post-frontal disturbance moving by). Relatively light freezes Thu/Fri (upper 20s) followed by a steady warm-up that could get our temps into the 80 degree range by Valentine's Day or shortly after.

Note that the Euro drives the 850mb freezing line all the way north into central Canada by day 10 as a deep upper low develops off the NW U.S. Coast. Big snow melt across the Plains after this week. Winter appears to be coming to an end for us.

And we turn our gaze eastward toward the Atlantic, Carrib, and GOM.

[Andrew]

GFS brings the front through around noon Wednesday with temps falling steadily afterward. Precip ends with the frontal passage (no post-frontal disturbance moving by). Relatively light freezes Thu/Fri (upper 20s) followed by a steady warm-up that could get our temps into the 80 degree range by Valentine's Day or shortly after.

Note that the Euro drives the 850mb freezing line all the way north into central Canada by day 10 as a deep upper low develops off the NW U.S. Coast. Big snow melt across the Plains after this week. Winter appears to be coming to an end for us.

And we turn our gaze eastward toward the Atlantic, Carrib, and GOM.

That is still many months aways. We now look at thunderstorm season.

[srainhoutx]

I know folks are watching and waiting to see what the 12Z suite offers today. I personally, will be awaiting the entire suite from the NCEP and Foreign guidance as well as ensembles before passing any judgment of the various outputs. There appears to be a bit too much spread in the data at this time which gives one pause with regards to the sensible weather we may expect mid week. Of course, those are just my thoughts.

[srainhoutx]

Our friends at Impact Weather have updated their video...

http://www.youtube.com/impactweather

[srainhoutx]

I know folks are watching and waiting to see what the 12Z suite offers today. I personally, will be awaiting the entire suite from the NCEP and Foreign guidance as well as ensembles before passing any judgment of the various outputs. There appears to be a bit too much spread in the data at this time which gives one pause with regards to the sensible weather we may expect mid week. Of course, those are just my thoughts.

HPC:

...WAVE CROSSING THE GULF STATES DAY 3...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: PENDING 12Z/07 ECMWF

THE NAM IS LESS SUPPRESSED WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM THAN THE
00Z/07 ECMWF...WITH THE GFS SLIGHTLY MORE SUPPRESSED. THE GEM
GLOBAL IS CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF...WITH THE UKMET CLOSEST TO THE
NAM. CONSIDERING THE TRENDING OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS ENERGETIC
FEATURE...WILL WAIT FOR THE 12Z/07 TO MAKE A CALL HERE.

[radiogirltx]

I am not done with Winter. I still want to see how much more Winter weather storms that SE Texas will get before all is said and done for Winter 2010-2011. The first day of Spring this year is the 20th of March in case any of you did not know. I am not going to be done with Winter until sometime next month.

I would be perfectly fine with temps getting back into the 90's tomm. I mean I enjoy extreme weather but I enjoy summer so much more. One day Key West here I come.

Oh man, that is my fav rock on earth! I Was just listening to US1 radio online this morning! Hubby and I really want to retire there. Have fun, and drink a frozen mudslide at the Flying Monkey for me!!!

[sambucol]

Might we get freezing drizzle further south than presently forecasted?

[srainhoutx]

Alright, the 12Z Operational runs are complete through hour 72, except for the UKMET 144 hour run that will be complete after 1:00PM. The general trends today have been a bit of a slightly suppressed track of the Upper Level disturbance. This is a rather progressive (fast moving) feature and there has been a lot of disagreement regarding exactly when the front will arrive creating the discussions regarding any wintry weather chances for Central/SE TX. As I posted above the trends today were moving toward the 00Z Euro solution. The 12Z Euro has changed little, but does suggest a quick end to precip chances after the front passes. The 12Z GFS ensembles are rather quick with the frontal passage, suggesting an arrival in the Central TX area in the very early morning hours and likely off the Coast by mid day Wednesday, +/- a couple of hours. The NAM is an outlier. That solution is not in agreement with other guidance, except for the 72 hour UKMET. We'll see what the Canadian and Euro ensembles suggest later in the afternoon, but my hunch is the HPC will side with the Euro, since it has held ground (perhaps a bit slower with the front than the 00Z) and the trends are moving in that direction. We will see.