February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
harpman
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Re: February Weather. First week Interest?

Post by harpman » Mon Jan 24, 2011 4:07 pm

Temps to our north seem to have moderated quite a bit.

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Re: February Weather. First week Interest?

Post by PaulEInHouston » Mon Jan 24, 2011 4:50 pm

Today's CPC

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EST MON JANUARY 24 2011

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 30 - FEB 03, 2011

RECENT ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD OVER NORTH AMERICA. AN AMPLIFIED FLOW
PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED WITH A DEEP TROUGH EXPECTED NORTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY AND
A STRONG RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALASKA. THE CONUS IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINATED BY
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH FORECAST NORTHEAST OF HUDSON BAY ALTHOUGH
RIDGING IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL RUNS
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE
MEANS ALTHOUGH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS INDICATE TROUGH ENERGY
UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE LOW SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS
AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE AO INDEX WHICH
RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME POSITIVE BY DAY 7 AND REMAIN
WEAKLY POSITIVE OR NEUTRAL THROUGH DAY 14.
THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS
BEEN POSITIVE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN POSITIVE THROUGH DAY 14. TODAYS BLEND CHART
INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS,
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, AND THE ALEUTIANS, AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA.

THE AREA OF BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS LEADS TO A FORECAST OF ENHANCED PROBABILITIES
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS.

THE EXPECTATION OF ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOWS LEADS TO A FORECAST OF ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND ALL OF ALASKA.

AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN JET STREAM LEADS TO A FORECAST OF ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE GULF COAST,
AND SOUTHEAST.
ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOWS LEADS TO A FORECAST OF ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN ALASKA AND THE
ALEUTIANS. THE REST OF THE CONUS AND ALASKA ARE FORECAST TO HAVE ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION.

TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 8...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10
PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL 12Z
ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7...AND 5 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 7.

MODEL OF THE DAY: TODAYS 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5 DUE TO RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 01 - 07 2011

THE RECENT OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE WEEK 2
CIRCULATION PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THAT EXPECTED FOR THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE LOW SPREAD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

TODAYS WEEK 2 BLEND CHART IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY BLEND CHART. THE
EXPECTED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES FOR WEEK 2 ARE ALSO VERY
SIMILAR TO THOSE FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT WETTER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING WEEK 2.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...5
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF
YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10...AND 10 PERCENT OF
YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 ON A SCALE OF
1 TO 5, DUE TO RELATIVELY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND THE PERSISTENCE OF THE
EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD.


FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

biggerbyte
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Re: February Weather. First week Interest?

Post by biggerbyte » Mon Jan 24, 2011 5:05 pm

SOS

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srainhoutx
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Re: February Weather. First week Interest?

Post by srainhoutx » Mon Jan 24, 2011 5:09 pm

So what did I miss today? Anything exciting? :mrgreen:
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: February Weather. First week Interest?

Post by Andrew » Mon Jan 24, 2011 5:34 pm

srainhoutx wrote:So what did I miss today? Anything exciting? :mrgreen:
Euro= awesome with no moisture, Canadian= awesome, Gfs= bad

The 18z GFS is getting back on board....kinda

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Re: February Weather. First week Interest?

Post by cristina99 » Mon Jan 24, 2011 7:33 pm

So, I've been reading. . . have the chances diminished of a really cold arctic blast next week? I got that impression from some of the posts.

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Re: February Weather. First week Interest?

Post by Ptarmigan » Mon Jan 24, 2011 7:45 pm

I looked at this link at Twister Data.
http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

No snow for us. The GFS has a tendency to change a lot around the 6 to 10 day mark.
Last edited by Ptarmigan on Mon Jan 24, 2011 7:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: February Weather. First week Interest?

Post by txsnowmaker » Mon Jan 24, 2011 7:46 pm

cristina99 wrote:So, I've been reading. . . have the chances diminished of a really cold arctic blast next week? I got that impression from some of the posts.

I for one would follow the wise words of wxman57...

wxman57 wrote:

It'll be another 5-6 days before we have much confidence in next week's weather. This is the time period prior to an event that the models tend to struggle, so I wouldn't put too much stock in any model runs for the next 3-5 days. And don't expect the local NWS office to mention any winter precip next week. They'll only do so when they're confident that such precip is more likely than not, and that's not going to happen this week.

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Re: February Weather. First week Interest?

Post by biggerbyte » Mon Jan 24, 2011 8:00 pm

Man, it sure has gotten quiet in here.

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Re: February Weather. First week Interest?

Post by Andrew » Mon Jan 24, 2011 8:07 pm

biggerbyte wrote:Man, it sure has gotten quiet in here.
Waiting on 00z runs. Can't do much else.
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