February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[biggerbyte]

Very true...

It sure would be nice to have some fun weather around Feb. 2. That is my birthday.

[Andrew]

So who is staying up with me tonight? I need some sort of company for the runs.

[txsnowmaker]

So who is staying up with me tonight? I need some sort of company for the runs.

I will probably be up through the Canadian but won't be able to make it all the way to the Euro. Btw, is that -40 line on the 0z NAM connected to next week's potential event? (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084m.gif)

[wxman666]

So who is staying up with me tonight? I need some sort of company for the runs.

I will see how long I can make it. I am very curious myself.

[wxman666]

Btw, if it's any consolation, it's interesting to note that AccuWeather predicts some ice on Wednesday (2/2/11).

[Mr. Weather]

Are we expecting any big changes in the next couple of runs

[Andrew]

Are we expecting any big changes in the next couple of runs

This time frame that we are in can us a lot of changes before things settle down.

Also yes the NAM and it's -40c reading is most likely the beginning of the cold air that will be coming down for us.

[Mr. Weather]

Are we expecting any big changes in the next couple of runs

This time frame that we are in can us a lot of changes before things settle down.

Also yes the NAM and it's -40c reading is most likely the beginning of the cold air that will be coming down for us.

Cool thanks for the help, I'm still keeping my fingers crossed for that special something around the first of February !!!

[Andrew]

SO far through 126 the GFS is coming in slightly weaker in terms of the ridge but the cold air is coming down more south than east and if this continues should bring us colder weather.

[sleetstorm]

This weekend will be telling as to what type of precipitation that southeast Texas could get. So Andrew, have all of the models backed off on the feasible snow/sleetstorm for sometime early next month?

[Andrew]

This weekend will be telling as to what type of precipitation that southeast Texas could get. So Andrew, have all of the models backed off on the feasible snow/sleetstorm for sometime early next month?

no not really GFS still has plenty of moisture but less cold. Canadian is in the middle and Euro is the driest (as of 12z runs) Still precip will be the last thing that we will know about this system and we prob won't know until this weekend at the earliest.

[Andrew]

Gfs is having a lot of trouble pushing the cold air south. I see no way this cold air will just sit in the middle of the country like this for so long. Garbage to me.

BTW wanted to mention that this is the first "shot" of cold air. The Feb 3 "event" is still forming at this point.

[wxman666]

Gfs is having a lot of trouble pushing the cold air south. I see no way this cold air will just sit in the middle of the country like this for so long. Garbage to me.

GFS = Garbage Forecast Soundings. LOL!

[Andrew]

Gfs is having a lot of trouble pushing the cold air south. I see no way this cold air will just sit in the middle of the country like this for so long. Garbage to me.

GFS = Garbage Forecast Soundings. LOL!

I mean I know I am just an amateur but come on man! haha just don't see why it would just sit there.

[Andrew]

Alright then the Feb 2-3 event has the high settling over us but yet the cold air goes to the east of us. We get a glancing blow which would provide freezing temps but yet again it doesn't make sense with the location of the ridge....

One thing I am taking from this and have been seeing a trend is the lack of moisture. More and more I think we WILL see the cold air but we will NOT see any precipitation. As I stated before I see so many of these Cut-off lows that appear at the 10-12 day range only to dissipate or speed up a couple days later. It is too far away to accurately say if we are going to get any precip but I am defiantly not liking the trend.

[wxman666]

Gfs is having a lot of trouble pushing the cold air south. I see no way this cold air will just sit in the middle of the country like this for so long. Garbage to me.

GFS = Garbage Forecast Soundings. LOL!

I mean I know I am just an amateur but come on man! haha just don't see why it would just sit there.

Well I am an amateur myself (been self-studying since I was about 5 or 6 so that's relatively 15 years but no degree, lol). However, I do believe we tend to rely too much on computer models nowadays. I like to think back to the days of Harold Taft...paper maps and no computer models....or even just back to events like the '74 super outbreak. Radars back then kind of looked like pong, lol! All those Tornado Warnings were written by typewriters and came too late. But boy, we sure had more confidence in our forecasting skills back then it seems...for the most part. Now we wait to see what the models do and end up issuing an Ice Storm Warning when the freezing rain starts falling, lol!

[wxman666]

Alright then the Feb 2-3 event has the high settling over us but yet the cold air goes to the east of us. We get a glancing blow which would provide freezing temps but yet again it doesn't make sense with the location of the ridge....

One thing I am taking from this and have been seeing a trend is the lack of moisture. More and more I think we WILL see the cold air but we will NOT see any precipitation. As I stated before I see so many of these Cut-off lows that appear at the 10-12 day range only to dissipate or speed up a couple days later. It is too far away to accurately say if we are going to get any precip but I am defiantly not liking the trend.

It will change 5+ more times before the day, give it time.

[biggerbyte]

Ah ha.. Someone else who knows who Harold Taft is. He is only the greatest weatherman to have ever lived. He and Doc, that is. He was still alive when I lived in Dallas. WBAP Radio, and KXAS TV had him as thier chief weather dude. I'll never forget him. Harold taught me so much.

You are right about the models. Harold would not forecast out more than three days, buy the accuracy was top notch. He felt that there was no point in using models, because anything more than three days out would change anyway. The days of real weather forecasters are long gone, and have been replaced by computers. Tim Heller is pretty good though. He said the last event would not produce frozen precip. in our area, with many calling him crazy. Lol

Anyway!! It is refreshing to see someone mention Mr. Taft, other than myself.

[wxman666]

Ah ha.. Someone else who knows who Harold Taft is. He is only the greatest weatherman to have ever lived. He and Doc, that is. He was still alive when I lived in Dallas. WBAP Radio, and KXAS TV had him as thier chief weather dude. I'll never forget him. Harold taught me so much.

You are right about the models. Harold would not forecast out more than three days, buy the accuracy was top notch. He felt that there was no point in using models, because anything more than three days out would change anyway. The days of real weather forecasters are long gone, and have been replaced by computers. Tim Heller is pretty good though. He said the last event would not produce frozen precip. in our area, with many calling him crazy. Lol

Anyway!! It is refreshing to see someone mention Mr. Taft, other than myself.

Lol! Perhaps we Dallasites just know him. I sure do wish doc was still on camera...he was my favorite met down here. I agree though, Taft was a legend. I like the guy they have on WFAA 8 up there. He's pretty awesome. And Gary England former met for OKC....covered the May 1999 F5 with live footage of it. That man saved lives.

[Andrew]

CMC is showing a freezing rain threat for areas around here. Still maintains the cut off low with the cold air. A 1040mb ridge is placed at the panhandle.