Lift is starting to develop in S TX and Middle TX Coastal areas. I think it will snow. As much as some hoped for? Perhaps not. All in all we've had a wild ride with the coldest air we've seen in many years and just maybe, another even colder air mass next week. Hopefully I'll get enough to lightly cover my yard as well.weatherag wrote:I think most people are in agreement that it will snow. Tricky part is exactly how much moisture will be available. Lift will certainly be there. As wxman pointed out would have been nice to see the surface trough form closer to the coast. We shall see. I'm still hopeful that my grass will be covered in the morning.
February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion
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srainhoutx
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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300 pages
It's been fun following the forum. We've had more freezing temps in the past few days than we did all last winter (or so I remember)!
Yes, I want snow. I may have jinxed everyone because I brought work home 'in the event'. Sorry if I did but I still think we will see something - maybe not as much as I dreamed of (I got to experience the 2004 miracle in El Campo) but I will gladly take any white stuff for the 3rd winter in a row!
Thank you to all the pro-mets for your guidance, input and teaching.
Yes, I want snow. I may have jinxed everyone because I brought work home 'in the event'. Sorry if I did but I still think we will see something - maybe not as much as I dreamed of (I got to experience the 2004 miracle in El Campo) but I will gladly take any white stuff for the 3rd winter in a row!
Thank you to all the pro-mets for your guidance, input and teaching.
Still confused on the spec's of this supposed "total bust" - the ULL is supposed to start moving up and out heading NE - and when this happens (tonight), the Gulf moisture is supposed to be lifted as well? It's easy to see the dry air settling into W Texas and it looks like it moved a little more S than expected, but there still appears to be some moisture streaming up from Mexico/Gulf.
Not sure this has any relevance, but the dew points are in the mid to upper 30's down in Mexico (which means there is still saturation, right?) - this should be pulled up into SE Texas once the ULL starts to lift NE, right? Not a total bust, right? There appears there still will be something frozen falling tonight.
Hope one of the pro's can explain this a little further ....
Not sure this has any relevance, but the dew points are in the mid to upper 30's down in Mexico (which means there is still saturation, right?) - this should be pulled up into SE Texas once the ULL starts to lift NE, right? Not a total bust, right? There appears there still will be something frozen falling tonight.
Hope one of the pro's can explain this a little further ....
"Weather forecast for tonight: dark. Continued dark overnight, with widely scattered light by morning." - The late/great George Carlin
I'm somewhat relieved that I don't have to drive on icy/snowy roads on my way to work tonight.
One mans squandered dream is another mans blessing.
One mans squandered dream is another mans blessing.
ok, now its starting
snow?skidog38 wrote:ok, now its starting
soonsambucol wrote:snow?skidog38 wrote:ok, now its starting
skidog - you're a man of many words.... 
Reports of light snow in Laredo via twitter. Could this be our last hope - like a beacon in the night?
The damage is done to my garden, so for once, I really want it to snow!
The damage is done to my garden, so for once, I really want it to snow!
G. Bostwick says the fat lady is warming up...so that pretty much puts the wraps on this one for me.....maybe next weeks system will produce a little something.
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Baseballdude2915
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Seeing a couple blips in central Texas out in front of the low.
Certainly a good sign this early in the night.
Building down the coast too.
Time may give birth to this 'non-event.'
Certainly a good sign this early in the night.
Building down the coast too.
Time may give birth to this 'non-event.'
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srainhoutx
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
602 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011
AVIATION...
THOUGH RECENT HOUSTON AREA MID-DAY ACARS SOUNDINGS HAVE SHOWN
PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR -SN DEVELOPMENT...STILL AWAITING THE ONSET
FOR NORTHERN SNOW WITH A SOUTHERN SLEET/SNOW MIX. KCRP REPORTING
-FZDZ AT LATEST OB...WITH A QUIET RADAR OVER OUR AREA. STILL
BITING ON WHAT THE PROGS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING ALL ALONG...LATE
EVENING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM KIAH NORTHWARD AND A SLEET/SNOW
MIX HOBBY SOUTHWARD. THE 04Z-14Z TIME PERIOD IS WHEN ALL LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW....POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF
FZRA/SLEET/FLURRIES ALONG THE COAST EARLY THEN AN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING TRANSITION TO -SHSN. MVFR DECKS/VISBIES WITHIN -SHSN...IFR
ON ISLAND. WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WILL SCOUR SKIES OUT TO SCT-FEW VFR...MAINTAIN NEAR-10 KT
NORTHWESTERLIES...BY END OF PERIOD.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
602 PM CST THU FEB 3 2011
AVIATION...
THOUGH RECENT HOUSTON AREA MID-DAY ACARS SOUNDINGS HAVE SHOWN
PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR -SN DEVELOPMENT...STILL AWAITING THE ONSET
FOR NORTHERN SNOW WITH A SOUTHERN SLEET/SNOW MIX. KCRP REPORTING
-FZDZ AT LATEST OB...WITH A QUIET RADAR OVER OUR AREA. STILL
BITING ON WHAT THE PROGS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING ALL ALONG...LATE
EVENING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM KIAH NORTHWARD AND A SLEET/SNOW
MIX HOBBY SOUTHWARD. THE 04Z-14Z TIME PERIOD IS WHEN ALL LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW....POSSIBLE MIXTURE OF
FZRA/SLEET/FLURRIES ALONG THE COAST EARLY THEN AN EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING TRANSITION TO -SHSN. MVFR DECKS/VISBIES WITHIN -SHSN...IFR
ON ISLAND. WESTERN HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WILL SCOUR SKIES OUT TO SCT-FEW VFR...MAINTAIN NEAR-10 KT
NORTHWESTERLIES...BY END OF PERIOD.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
I saw a WV loop just now on KPRC and at the very end of the loop, in the middle of the dry slot, it started to show color again and expanding in a pool in WC Texas towards San Angelo. If that's the case, Central and into NC Texas may get a decent snowfall.... maybe it will move far enough south to clip us too.
I don't know guys, whatever moisture/precip off the coast seems to be drying up...
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... g_off=9999
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... g_off=9999
I don't mean to be rude here but I don't understand why everyone sits here waiting for the Pro Mets to give information just to turn around and shoot them in the face. So far none of them have said anything that didn't come to pass the only issue is timing. Maybe it will snow or maybe it won't but shouldn't we at least let the "overnight hours" that they have been talking about for several days come to pass before we behead them?
Drops off my soap box and back to lurker mode
Drops off my soap box and back to lurker mode
Very well said, maybe you should post more often.tgal wrote:I don't mean to be rude here but I don't understand why everyone sits here waiting for the Pro Mets to give information just to turn around and shoot them in the face. So far none of them have said anything that didn't come to pass the only issue is timing. Maybe it will snow or maybe it won't but shouldn't we at least let the "overnight hours" that they have been talking about for several days come to pass before we behead them?
Drops off my soap box and back to lurker mode
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redneckweather
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In less than 2 hours (4:23 to 6:15) Jeff had to make a fairly dramatic change on snow accumulations.
The 4:23 update said:
Still holding with my accumulation totals of 1-3” across the area with some totals of 3-5” in the heavy meso bands which are still likely.
Now less than tw hours later:
Still think it will snow, but accumulations may need to be adjusted downward into the 1-2 inches range across the area.
And then he added at the end of this update:
Still think this event will happen in some fashion, but I am getting a little nervous.
Do y'all see the trend here? It's going on 7 pm shortly and hardly any moisture in sight.
I won't mean to be such a weenie but this is southeast Texas afterall.
The 4:23 update said:
Still holding with my accumulation totals of 1-3” across the area with some totals of 3-5” in the heavy meso bands which are still likely.
Now less than tw hours later:
Still think it will snow, but accumulations may need to be adjusted downward into the 1-2 inches range across the area.
And then he added at the end of this update:
Still think this event will happen in some fashion, but I am getting a little nervous.
Do y'all see the trend here? It's going on 7 pm shortly and hardly any moisture in sight.
I won't mean to be such a weenie but this is southeast Texas afterall.
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radiogirltx
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- Location: Port Lavaca, TX
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tgal wrote:I don't mean to be rude here but I don't understand why everyone sits here waiting for the Pro Mets to give information just to turn around and shoot them in the face. So far none of them have said anything that didn't come to pass the only issue is timing. Maybe it will snow or maybe it won't but shouldn't we at least let the "overnight hours" that they have been talking about for several days come to pass before we behead them?
Drops off my soap box and back to lurker mode
(Applaudes from the bleachers) Well said.
Agreed!! Well said.tgal wrote:I don't mean to be rude here but I don't understand why everyone sits here waiting for the Pro Mets to give information just to turn around and shoot them in the face. So far none of them have said anything that didn't come to pass the only issue is timing. Maybe it will snow or maybe it won't but shouldn't we at least let the "overnight hours" that they have been talking about for several days come to pass before we behead them?
Drops off my soap box and back to lurker mode