February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion
28 degrees at Hooks!
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redneckweather
- Posts: 1022
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Good gosh...24.3 and still dropping at a fairly good clip!
PaulEInHouston wrote:Pretty much a given Southeast Tx will see some snow. As for where and how much, still too early to tell. Tomorrow will easier to better define, but still a crapshoot. Slight variations in storm track can dramatically affect the whens and wheres...jabcwb2 wrote:Good evening, everyone!
I tried to follow off and on at work, but was jsut way too busy to keep up with all the chatter on here. So from what I gather, 1" of snow north of I-10 and 2-3" south of I-10? Spring, TX gets snow for sure, then?
Well rats! I thought it was a sure thing. Thanks for letting me know.
Hey guys LONG Time Lurker first time poster..just wanted to drop in and he apart of the action..dang its cold outside!
Welcome clute28! I take it that you are also in Clute then?clute28 wrote:Hey guys LONG Time Lurker first time poster..just wanted to drop in and he apart of the action..dang its cold outside!
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srainhoutx
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We are glad you joined us clute28 as well as all our other new folks. A reminder to all of our new folks. Go to your user control panel and update to add a general location to your profile. That will help our Mets and other fine knowledgeable members when observations are given or asked about.clute28 wrote:Hey guys LONG Time Lurker first time poster..just wanted to drop in and he apart of the action..dang its cold outside!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
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Member: National Weather Association
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Twitter @WeatherInfinity
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PaulEInHouston
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Welcome clute28! Great forum here with a large number of very well schooled individuals and professionals. I'm a newbie too and have learned a ton so far. 34 in League City.clute28 wrote:Hey guys LONG Time Lurker first time poster..just wanted to drop in and he apart of the action..dang its cold outside!
Edit...i still can't find Al Gore
Last edited by PaulEInHouston on Tue Feb 01, 2011 7:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I stopped for gas on the way home and nearly froze w/the windchill. it is fun isn't it?clute28 wrote:Hey guys LONG Time Lurker first time poster..just wanted to drop in and he apart of the action..dang its cold outside!
No rain, no rainbows.
Does anyone know what shape the road will be in during the morning hours tomorrow? I have to be in Galveston by 7:15 in the morning and I did not know if ice was a concern in our area or not. Thanks all!!
My name is Nicole and I love weather!!
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Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
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Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
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srainhoutx
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No problems tomorrow, road wise.rnmm wrote:Does anyone know what shape the road will be in during the morning hours tomorrow? I have to be in Galveston by 7:15 in the morning and I did not know if ice was a concern in our area or not. Thanks all!!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
tireman4 wrote:Man, I just got home from dinner with the wife and kid. Jeff's email sounded quite ominous.
Will you post the email please?
srainhoutx wrote:No problems tomorrow, road wise.rnmm wrote:Does anyone know what shape the road will be in during the morning hours tomorrow? I have to be in Galveston by 7:15 in the morning and I did not know if ice was a concern in our area or not. Thanks all!!
Thank you so much Srain!! I feel much better now!! I already hate the causeway when it is dry LOL
My name is Nicole and I love weather!!
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Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
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Alicia, Allison, Rita, Ike
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tireman4
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Jeff:
Potentially a historic snow event in the making for SE TX. Models continue to trend wetter and while QPF is not all that int he GFS its moisture fields above the surface are for sure. Am starting to think the CMC is on the right track here and feel some impressive totals will be possible with meso scale banding. Could easily see 3-5 inches across the entire area with bands over 6-8 inches (my latest e-mail has a discussion of the thinking, if someone could post it). I could see someone getting a foot also, but who would forecast a foot of snow down here?
Interesting that the NAM wants to kick things off a bit earlier now on Thursday afternoon.
Suspect Watches will be hoisted tomorrow as we fall within 36 hours of the onset.
Potentially a historic snow event in the making for SE TX. Models continue to trend wetter and while QPF is not all that int he GFS its moisture fields above the surface are for sure. Am starting to think the CMC is on the right track here and feel some impressive totals will be possible with meso scale banding. Could easily see 3-5 inches across the entire area with bands over 6-8 inches (my latest e-mail has a discussion of the thinking, if someone could post it). I could see someone getting a foot also, but who would forecast a foot of snow down here?
Interesting that the NAM wants to kick things off a bit earlier now on Thursday afternoon.
Suspect Watches will be hoisted tomorrow as we fall within 36 hours of the onset.
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tireman4
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The whole email:
Impressive arctic air mass pouring into the region late this afternoon with temperatures at or below freezing along and N of a line from Columbus to Tomball to Livingston. Cold air advection showing no signs of giving up with NW winds still howling at 25-35mph driving wind chills into the teens. Temperature records may be tied or broken over the next few days. Appears this will be the coldest air across N TX since the great outbreak of Dec 1989.
After reviewing full 12Z guidance, pattern upcoming pattern resembles that of past historical snow events over TX and is almost a mirror image of the very impressive 2004 Christmas event (only difference is more moisture and a stornger upper level storm, yes stronger than 2004!!!). CMC model refuses to back down on its very impressive snow fall totals and the GFS is starting to trend wetter. Not sure why the GFS and ECMWF are not producing more QPF as they show good moisture advection and near saturated surface to 500mb by late Thursday night completely below freezing. Given the forecast location of a developing coastal low, very strong upper level forcing and dynamics, and good Gulf moisture advection it all points to widespread heavy snowfall with impressive meso scale banding features.
With ground temperatures expected to be below freezing much of the time leading up to the event there will be little to no warmth for melting as the snow starts and this fact alone will help beef up totals.
If I would have forecasted a foot of snow in Victoria in 2004, I probably would not have believed myself much less expected others to believe me...and I have a really hard time forecasting totals more than 2-3" at this time. However I am becoming increasingly concerned that a potential historic snow event may be in the making and totals could be greater than 6-8 inches over parts of the area. Under meso scale banding hourly snowfall rates could approach 1-2 inches of accumulation with visibilities dropping to near 1/4th of a mile. Where these bands set up we could really see totals ramp up quick.
Right now will expand the 1-3" snow fall to include much of the area north of a line from Port Lavaca east to the coast near Palacios and then to High Island and inland to HWY 105. South of a line from Port Lavaca to San Antonio a mix of snow/sleet will cut totals down into the 1/2 to 1.5 inch range.
Extended period of sub freezing temperatures prior to the event will result in rare significant snow accumulation not only on bridges but all surface streets. Expect all roadways to become snow covered creating very dangerous driving conditions by late Thursday evening.
Suspect a Winter Storm Watch will be issued on Wednesday for the entire area or parts of the area as we move to within 36-40 hours of the onset of the event.
Impressive arctic air mass pouring into the region late this afternoon with temperatures at or below freezing along and N of a line from Columbus to Tomball to Livingston. Cold air advection showing no signs of giving up with NW winds still howling at 25-35mph driving wind chills into the teens. Temperature records may be tied or broken over the next few days. Appears this will be the coldest air across N TX since the great outbreak of Dec 1989.
After reviewing full 12Z guidance, pattern upcoming pattern resembles that of past historical snow events over TX and is almost a mirror image of the very impressive 2004 Christmas event (only difference is more moisture and a stornger upper level storm, yes stronger than 2004!!!). CMC model refuses to back down on its very impressive snow fall totals and the GFS is starting to trend wetter. Not sure why the GFS and ECMWF are not producing more QPF as they show good moisture advection and near saturated surface to 500mb by late Thursday night completely below freezing. Given the forecast location of a developing coastal low, very strong upper level forcing and dynamics, and good Gulf moisture advection it all points to widespread heavy snowfall with impressive meso scale banding features.
With ground temperatures expected to be below freezing much of the time leading up to the event there will be little to no warmth for melting as the snow starts and this fact alone will help beef up totals.
If I would have forecasted a foot of snow in Victoria in 2004, I probably would not have believed myself much less expected others to believe me...and I have a really hard time forecasting totals more than 2-3" at this time. However I am becoming increasingly concerned that a potential historic snow event may be in the making and totals could be greater than 6-8 inches over parts of the area. Under meso scale banding hourly snowfall rates could approach 1-2 inches of accumulation with visibilities dropping to near 1/4th of a mile. Where these bands set up we could really see totals ramp up quick.
Right now will expand the 1-3" snow fall to include much of the area north of a line from Port Lavaca east to the coast near Palacios and then to High Island and inland to HWY 105. South of a line from Port Lavaca to San Antonio a mix of snow/sleet will cut totals down into the 1/2 to 1.5 inch range.
Extended period of sub freezing temperatures prior to the event will result in rare significant snow accumulation not only on bridges but all surface streets. Expect all roadways to become snow covered creating very dangerous driving conditions by late Thursday evening.
Suspect a Winter Storm Watch will be issued on Wednesday for the entire area or parts of the area as we move to within 36-40 hours of the onset of the event.
26.8f here and steadily dropping. I am glad it is still windy because if it wasn't we would have almost perfect radiational cooling and who knows how cold it would get? Mid to upper teens even in my location will not be a surprise to me.
Still trying to contain my "excitement" re Thurs. and Fri. but it sure does look like all the parameters are coming together for what, as others have said, may be a historic storm for our area. I'm still seeing shades of 1973 in all of this. Wonder what next weeks "blast" will bring us? Of course we have to get through this week first.
Still trying to contain my "excitement" re Thurs. and Fri. but it sure does look like all the parameters are coming together for what, as others have said, may be a historic storm for our area. I'm still seeing shades of 1973 in all of this. Wonder what next weeks "blast" will bring us? Of course we have to get through this week first.
i know everyone is excited about the chance of snow around Houston. i am too! However, i have to drive to Dilley, Tx (about 85 miles south of San Antonio on I-35). i am planning on leaving around 7:00PM thurs. I would love to see some snow during this event, but i am also worried about driving. Anybody have any thoughts about the weather west of here.
poobear55
Yes sir right down the road from the libraryronyan wrote:Welcome clute28! I take it that you are also in Clute then?clute28 wrote:Hey guys LONG Time Lurker first time poster..just wanted to drop in and he apart of the action..dang its cold outside!
What? Well we live on the same street then!clute28 wrote:Yes sir right down the road from the libraryronyan wrote:Welcome clute28! I take it that you are also in Clute then?clute28 wrote:Hey guys LONG Time Lurker first time poster..just wanted to drop in and he apart of the action..dang its cold outside!