January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro suggests the cold air is on the move S into TX @ 216 hours. By hour 240, the front is offshore of the TX Coast...

01222011 12Z Euro f216.gif

01222011 12Z Euro f240.gif

[randybpt]

Hey don't y'all find it odd that the Gfs is always showing some exciting weather for southeast texas 10 days out like some wicked Mad mind.is.behind all this. Hmmmmmm conspiracy maybe or just maybe oh heat .......miser himself is the culprit. I will say this STEPPING DOWN I do remember a few snow.events around feb. 3rd......hey partimigan let's see the stats.

[srainhoutx]

It appears we will see another Sudden Stratospheric Warming event as well...

[srainhoutx]

wxman57, it looks like the Euro suggests a storm heading SE into all that cold air. Correct me if I'm wrong.

[wxman57]

wxman57, it looks like the Euro suggests a storm heading SE into all that cold air. Correct me if I'm wrong.

You are correct. Very cold air in place at the end of the month/beginning of February with a massive amount of energy driving SE toward us. Interesting...

[redneckweather]

The GFS trend reminds me a whole lot of the 2004 Christmas snow miracle which showed it two weeks out, lost it, show it, lost it than brought it back a couple days before the event. Exept this trend seems to be quite a bit colder.

Oh and srain, what parts of Texas are going to get the snow?

kidding kidding.

[vbhoutex]

Hey don't y'all find it odd that the Gfs is always showing some exciting weather for southeast texas 10 days out like some wicked Mad mind.is.behind all this. Hmmmmmm conspiracy maybe or just maybe oh heat .......miser himself is the culprit. I will say this STEPPING DOWN I do remember a few snow.events around feb. 3rd......hey partimigan let's see the stats.

Are you talking 1973? IIRC the dates were Feb. 9 and 16. that was after an earlier snow in January, I think the 12th. the weather we have been having is starting to remind me of winters in the 70's.

[srainhoutx]

Looks like more Winter RECON is ahead for the Pacific...

NOUS42 KNHC 211850 CCA
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0150 PM EST FRI 21 JANUARY 2011
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z JANUARY 2011
WSPOD NUMBER.....10-052

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE
A. P77/ 37.6N 171.8E (DROP 11)/ 24/1200Z
JWP

[randybpt]

Feb. 3 1978, I was 13 bout an inch.

[tireman4]

Hey don't y'all find it odd that the Gfs is always showing some exciting weather for southeast texas 10 days out like some wicked Mad mind.is.behind all this. Hmmmmmm conspiracy maybe or just maybe oh heat .......miser himself is the culprit. I will say this STEPPING DOWN I do remember a few snow.events around feb. 3rd......hey partimigan let's see the stats.

Are you talking 1973? IIRC the dates were Feb. 9 and 16. that was after an earlier snow in January, I think the 12th. the weather we have been having is starting to remind me of winters in the 70's.

I thought it was January 11...I am almost positive..the February dates, not sure..

[randybpt]

The big snow in 73 was in jan. But it did snow 3 times that year. 73 was a blast it actually started in the morning and snowed all day 6-8 inches. While we are wishcasting maybe this time it snows it is during the day. Lol

[cristina99]

I'm a novice at this weather stuff - but get excited to see news about really cold air. So, in layman's terms, what is expected toward the end of the month into February? Do you think it'll get really cold?

Welcome, cristina! Yes, it could get rather cold around the beginning of February. And there may be a chance we could see some snow down here then. It's quite a ways out though, so I wouldn't count my snowflakes before they're hatched.

[tireman4]

wxman57, it looks like the Euro suggests a storm heading SE into all that cold air. Correct me if I'm wrong.

You are correct. Very cold air in place at the end of the month/beginning of February with a massive amount of energy driving SE toward us. Interesting...

Wxman57,

I am just speculating here..but...remember the Ike gut feeling you had....do you have any gut feeling about this? Or is it just way too early?

[wxman57]

wxman57, it looks like the Euro suggests a storm heading SE into all that cold air. Correct me if I'm wrong.

You are correct. Very cold air in place at the end of the month/beginning of February with a massive amount of energy driving SE toward us. Interesting...

Wxman57,

I am just speculating here..but...remember the Ike gut feeling you had....do you have any gut feeling about this? Or is it just way too early?

My gut is saying two things. First, the models may well be right in predicting a significant event (cold and/or winter precip). Second, I won't be biking much the next few weeks.

[srainhoutx]

I'm a novice at this weather stuff - but get excited to see news about really cold air. So, in layman's terms, what is expected toward the end of the month into February? Do you think it'll get really cold?

Welcome, cristina! Yes, it could get rather cold around the beginning of February. And there may be a chance we could see some snow down here then. It's quite a ways out though, so I wouldn't count my snowflakes before they're hatched.

First off, welcome to the Weather Forum, cristina99. We are glad you've joined us. We'll just have to keep an eye on things as we move forward the next several days. We are still 10+ days out and a lot can change. Stay tuned and feel free to join in the conversations.

[tireman4]

My gut is saying two things. First, the models may well be right in predicting a significant event (cold and/or winter precip). Second, I won't be biking much the next few weeks.

You know..you can still get the miles in. How about a indoor trainer? Mine is cheap, but they have some really nice ones out there.

[Karen]

Does anyone know what the weather is going to be like for the Chevron Marathon?

[srainhoutx]

Midland/Odessa:

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL STAY AMPLIFIED OVER THE
CONUS. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL TOP A SEMI PERMANENT
WEST COAST RIDGE...THEN DIVE SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTWARD...ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVEN AS THE NEXT FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY OTHERS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY.
ACTUALLY WARMED MONDAY/S HIGH TEMPERATURES SINCE WE SLOWED THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN ON MONDAY. SIMILAR ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SINCE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO OFFER A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS CONCERNING THE UPPER PATTERN...AND
MORE SPECIFICALLY THE STRENGTH...AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF ASSORTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. ALL OF THESE MODELS AGREE THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
STAY AMPLIFIED THOUGH...SO CANNOT HELP BUT THINK SOME VERY COLD AIR
WILL DROP OVER THE REGION. THE PROBLEM...WHEN...STILL REMAINS.


Dodge City, KS:


IN A RELATED
NOTE, WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE MODELS TOWARDS FEB 1ST. MODELS SHOW 500
HPA RIDING ACROSS ALASKA (CROSS POLAR FLOW INTO CANADA) WITH VERY
COLD AIR AND HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES SINKING SOUTH INTO THE UNITED
STATES. THINK THAT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES, (WHICH SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH DUE TO THE PESKY
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500 HPA HEIGHTS OVER GREENLAND THAT WE HAVE SEEN
ALL WINTER ALONG REESTABLISHING ITSELF) THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER COLD (BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES) SNAP. THE LATEST WEEK TWO
GRIDS REFLECT THIS THINKING AS SUCH. IN ADDITION, COLD AIR ALREADY
EXISTS NOW ACROSS ALASKA AND CANADA, WHICH GIVES A BIT MORE CAUSE OF
CONCERN. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY VERY WELL SET UP SHOP ACROSS KANSAS
WITH THE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SLOSHING ABOUT ON A DIURNAL BASIS SO
TEMPERATURES COULD BE TRICKY AND OF LOW CONFIDENCE.

[wxman57]

Does anyone know what the weather is going to be like for the Chevron Marathon?

Short answer - no. Current GFS indicates temps in the mid 30s at the start, reaching the mid 40s by noon. Gusty north wind and some sunshine. Euro suggests colder with little or no sunshine. Will that actually happen? Maybe. Chances of a mild weather day (lows near 50, high near 70) appear remote. Tune in later...

[harpman]

The 18z GFS should be running. Someone please report the results. thanks.