January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Andrew
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redneckweather wrote:Sorry but you are wrong srain. I've been reading this weather forum for a pretty long time and have noticed that a lot of the members here are NOT model readers (this includes members from other parts of the state) and come here to see what the weather is doing from people like you who post model maps and forecast discussions every day. I figured since you post model runs daily of the exciting weather that is coming that you would know where in Texas wintry precip chances could happen via model guidance? In other words, if a certain model is showing wintry precip in the short term or extended, why not just mention where in Texas it is showing it instead of saying 'somewhere in Texas' everytime? Common sense, no?
I know Srain said move on but I just wanted to post one thing concerning this issue.

Almost every single time that Srain posts a map or model he posts a comment next to it, and this comment includes what area the model is forecasting the weather event. If other members are confused they can easily post on here asking where this event may take place. If someone is still confused then they can easily ask and one of our "model readers" and they can quickly and easily inform them. Now this board has been running this way for many many years now. It has been very effective in the past and continues to be very effective. We get much praise from readers around the country about the level of members we have here and our methods of passing this knowledge down. We always value the concerns that members have on this forum and if there are anymore concerns or issues please contact me instead of posting on here. Thanks.
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Obviously you missed the point also Andrew. As Srain said...moving on.
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srainhoutx
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Dallas/Ft Worth offers an interesting discussion this afternoon concerning chances of some ice tomorrow and some wintry weather next week to their NE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
252 PM CST WED JAN 19 2011

.DISCUSSION...
252 PM
VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR THURSDAY. STRONG COLD FRONT
SWEEPS QUICKLY THROUGH NORTH TEXAS BEGINNING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
IN THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT
AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY FROM THE TOP DOWN DUE TO LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE. THERE WILL BE A SHORT PERIOD WHERE THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURE WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING...YET THERE WILL STILL BE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FROM THE SURFACE UP TO ABOUT 5000 FEET...AND
SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR. AS THE MOISTURE SHALLOWS OUT THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD WEAKEN TO FREEZING DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING. THE
MAV/MET/MEX TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT HOVER JUST ABOVE
FREEZING FOR A WHILE...BUT WE FEEL THESE ARE TOO HIGH. THEY ARE
THE RESULT OF A MODEL INDUCED DRY ADIABATIC LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE
WHICH RESULTS IN A WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURE. WE FEEL THAT THIS
LAYER WILL NOT BE SO PRONOUNCED...AND THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER WHICH DROPS THEM BELOW FREEZING
.


THAT BEING SAID...THE FREEZING ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT...WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS NEAR AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
PALO PINTO TO CANTON. IN THE SOUTH WE EXPECT VERY LIGHT GLAZINGS
ON ELEVATED SURFACES...INCREASING TO A HUNDREDTH OR TWO NORTHEAST
TOWARDS PARIS. IN NORTHEAST TEXAS THESE AMOUNTS MAY AFFECT
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...BUT FORTUNATELY THE VERY DRY WINDY
CONDITIONS THAT WILL PREVAIL AFTER THE RAIN SHOULD SUBLIMATE ANY
ICE THAT FORMS.


STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OCCASIONALLY ABOVE 35 MPH WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A
WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THURSDAY MORNING TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS. WINDS WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS AFTER SUNSET.

NORTH TEXAS WILL GET QUITE COLD BY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH TEENS
EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS OF THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF NORTH
TEXAS...AND LOW 20S ELSEWHERE. ANY WATER ON ROADWAYS...SUCH AS
PUDDLES...LOW SPOTS...LAWN SPRINKLER SPRAY...WILL TURN TO ICE.


AFTER A BRIEF WARM UP...MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM ANOTHER COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY. THERE IS A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
INDICATED...AND ISOLATED THUNDER MAY BE HEARD. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO COOL DOWN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BIT OF WINTRY MIX
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION
ENDS.
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Portastorm
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:
srainhoutx wrote:The 12Z Canadian suggests a very wet pattern on Sunday/Monday. That model also suggests some wintry weather chances across parts of TX as the Upper Air disturbance begins to push across the Lone Star State...
01192011 12Z GEM 12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg
01192011 12Z GEM f162.gif


The ensemble mean of the Canadian says "no fun for Portastorm". Buzzkill.


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... p12168.gif
Sadly, I'm getting to used it ... but thanks for looking. Maybe the 0z cycle tonight will offer better prospects for slippin' and slidin' in Waterloo.
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I've given up on Texas seeing much really in the way of real winter weather, especially for S.E.Texas. Holding out for hope for change to this pattern we are in just isn't cutting it. We've gone from dry and cold, to wet and cold. The problem is, the wet comes at the wrong time. The models are just useless. Great for dreamers.

One thing is for sure... If you are a true weather fanatic, excepting the ocassional bone being thrown at us, this area is not the place to call home. I've never understood storm chasers until now.
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srainhoutx
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A very interesting pattern unfolding tonight. Water Vapor Imagery suggests our MJO pulse is underway E of the date line that a phase 7-8 would suggest. There is also a strong ridge of high pressure (+PNA/PNA ridge) near the West Coast. A buckle, if you will, is developing in the Polar Jet. That can be seen near AK. Cold air continues to funnel across the N Pole from Eurasia. Impulses are heading E from a big N Pacific storm in the upper flow. The big question is where will the trough establish in the eastern 2/3 rd of North America. The models suggest tonight that the axis will be a touch further W into the Rockies/Great Basin. Will it produce a winter weather event? That remains to be seen in the longer range. Tonight we have a possible event unfolding to our N. Snow pack has been lacking of late from E KS/OK/AR/MO. It appears those areas are ripe for further events adding to that snowpack, meaning less air mass modification. This is my term of a “stepping down” process. Will it produce? That remains to be seen. That's my 'thumbnail sketch for now. With that said I like the trends for those looking for anything wintry near our area. We shall see…oh, and have fun and goodnight...tomorrow is another day... :mrgreen:

Of course those are just my thoughts

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Very nice analysis. Good explanation for those less versed in the patterns. I'm glad to know I'm not the only one that has thought we were in a "step down" process. It just happened a lot earlier last winter. As stated it remains to be seen if the different "parts" come together at the right time, but the hints are there for sure and we know the COLD air is there ready to be transported with more behind it. Northern parts of the CONUS are looking at some of the coldest temps of the Winter this week and later. It will definitely be interesting to watch, ponder and pontificate.
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I think that it would be marvelous to get a freezing rain and sleet storm in SE Texas as long as it does not become too extreme or long lasting like the Montreal, Canada ice strom event was over ten years ago.
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srainhoutx
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Good morning. I see the front is passing the Dallas/Ft Worth area and extends SW to just N of Del Rio. Radar suggests some light freezing drizzle NW of the DFW area with snow across OK and back into the Panhandle. The front should contiue marching S and be into our area in the early afternoon and off shore by rush hour. Take those coats, you'll need them later today!

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wxman57
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Y'all want snow "down south"? I suggest that you're living too far north. Time to pack a bag and head to Maui (that's in Hawaii for the geographically-challenged ;-) ) Lots of snow there from a storm that passed through on Tuesday. Here's a shot of the island from yesterday morning:

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srain, love your positive outlooks!!! so, still chance for winter precip in SE Texas??? please say yes!! lol would it be tonight?
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wxman57
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hlewis wrote:srain, love your positive outlooks!!! so, still chance for winter precip in SE Texas??? please say yes!! lol would it be tonight?
Don't look for anything here. 12Z RUC sounding forecast for IAH indicates the air aloft where the precip will form and fall will be well above freezing right up to the end of the precip. But I wouldn't rule out a tiny chance that we could see a single sleet pellet about 10 seconds before the precip ends. ;-)
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srainhoutx
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The pattern in the medium/longer range looks a bit chilly, hlewis. So you never know what next week will bring. We will see...
01202011 00Z GFS 850 Temps 00zENS6-10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif
01202011 00Z Euro 850 Temps 00zECMWFENS6-10day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif
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srainhoutx wrote:The pattern in the medium/longer range looks a bit chilly, hlewis. So you never know what next week will bring. We will see...
i'm hoping we see a miracle ;) i'll be happy with 1 flake though, i will!!! thanks!
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wxman57
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Euro has the cold Arctic air moving out of western Canada to central to eastern Canada in the next 7 days. That should diminish our chances of any significant cold or winter precip in the next few weeks:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.ecmwf850t.html
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srainhoutx
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wxman57 wrote:Euro has the cold Arctic air moving out of western Canada to central to eastern Canada in the next 7 days. That should diminish our chances of any significant cold or winter precip in the next few weeks:
It's the getting through those next few weeks (what happens in between) that are interesting... :) The front has passed Austin at this hour...
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z GFS suggests some possible wintry weather in W/Central TX next Tuesday into Wednesday with a very potent Cold Upper Low that slowly digs into N MX and then heads E across S Central TX and across our area late Wednesday into Thursday. There are also 'hints' of a coastal low/trough developing in that time frame as well along the Lower/Middle TX Coastal regions.
01202011 12Z GFS f138.gif
01202011 12Z GFS_3_2011012012_F144_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png
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srainhoutx
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The front has passed College Station. Gusty NW winds to near 30 mph now. The front appears to be ahead of schedule.
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srainhoutx
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The front just passed through NW Harris County. Gusty NW winds now at my location...
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z Canadian (GEM) has a bit of a different solution regarding next week. That model suggests the Cold Upper Low will drop very far S into N Central MX before ejecting E across the Lower Rio Grande Valley/NE MX.
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