January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[vbhoutex]

Check out the convective initiation coming into SW TX. I presume that's our low?

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php

That is the ULL. The surface low has yet to form from what I see, based on radar only. If I am incorrect feel free to correct me, but that is what I see based on radar.

Ah okay. So are we expecting intensification once the surface low develops? Or are the strong storms solely a product of the ULL?

The strong storms expected along the coastal areas will be a product of the surface low as it tracks along the coast, probably just offshore, and the attendant warm front that will be meandering out ahead of the low(may make it as far N as US 59). The ULL is expectd to track about 100 to 150 miles N of the surface low depending on which model and who you listen to. NWS is favoring a track closer to the coast for the ULL. Looking at radar I believe I see the first vestiges of the surface low starting to form just SW of CC.

[sleetstorm]

I am still waiting to see if there are going to be any surprises tomorrow regarding sleet and snow for southeast Texas .

[Paul]

I dont see enough return flow to produce anything close to severe weather here tonight and into tomorrow. Understood the warm front backs up...I was down in Galveston all day today and we had north winds and upper 50's for highs....NAM suggests most of the energy to our north......we shall see how big and bad this coastal low is. I think the atmosphere is to stable, JMO....

[vbhoutex]

Paul, at this point I tend to agree with you. This coastal low is going to have to get going soon and it is going to have to track inland more than currently expected if it is to do as I posted it could do. I will be interested to watch the positioning of the ULL and the surface low as this evolves. It they track "just right" and IF there is enough cold air available to our North I am wondering if there might be a little wrap around winter precip. into the far Northern burbs of Houston. I've just seen a few things that planted this probable wishful thinking in my head.

[Ptarmigan]

I dont see enough return flow to produce anything close to severe weather here tonight and into tomorrow. Understood the warm front backs up...I was down in Galveston all day today and we had north winds and upper 50's for highs....NAM suggests most of the energy to our north......we shall see how big and bad this coastal low is. I think the atmosphere is to stable, JMO....

Seems to be a rain event at this time. Fine with me. I can't rule out thunderstorms out of it.

[weatherguy425]

GFS has REALLY backed off on the snow, even in north texas, dallas appears to miss out JMO

[redneckweather]

What does the latest NAM say for snow?

[weatherguy425]

NAM= Good for NTX
GFS= Baddd for most of texas, except the texarkana area

[wxman666]

I'm not inclined to say yes or no to anything until I see something happen. I've seen the models and forecasts flip flop all week. I think we have probably fine tuned the forecast as best we can for the time being....the wait and see game commences IMO.

[srainhoutx]

00Z NAM suggests N TX and points E along and N of deformation zone receive a nice thump of wintry weather @ hour 24...

For redneckweather. Elevated storms firing near the Edwards Plateau..

[wxman666]

Not hating those radar trends srain.

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z GFS suggests 'warmer' 850's, but 7H suggests -15 pocket over Central TX. We shall see. Stay dry folks.

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
927 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

.UPDATE...
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING
IN RESPONSE TO WIDESPREAD ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPENING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA DIGGING IN FROM THE WEST. GETTING SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER AT TIMES AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
TONIGHT`S PORTION OF THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

MAIN ISSUE IS ONSET OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND EXACTLY WHERE
AND HOW SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE. 00Z NAM IS COLDER
OVERALL BUT ALSO A BIT BEHIND SCHEDULE WITH RESPECT TO THE ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION. THOUGH A FEW REPORTS OF SLEET HAVE ALREADY BEEN
CALLED IN...SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY WARM AND FEEL ANY
SLEET OR SNOW THAT FALLS OVERNIGHT HAS VERY LITTLE CHANCE TO
ACCUMULATE. WOULD PREFER TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL DATA AND ALLOW MID
CREW TO ASSESS THE SITUATION BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY OR PERHAPS EVEN A WARNING. TIMING WOULD MOST
LIKELY BE DURING THE EARLY MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SUNDAY BASED ON FORECAST TEMPERATURE & MOISTURE PROFILES.

[redneckweather]

I sure wish I could make this one. My family and I took off to Sherman in March of 2006 into the middle of some snow and boy did we! I got us into the right area right before it started and when the snow started, it started coming down hard! I found a hotel just in time before the roads were completely snowed over. Here is a pic of the highway right before pulling over and getting a room for the night. I think the area ended up with 7+ inches of snow. We had a blast.

[weatherguy425]

GFS looks a little colder during the early-middle part of next week.

[srainhoutx]

Mid week looks interesting...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _090.shtml

[weatherguy425]

And after that...

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cm ... 5&source=0

[ticka1]

Looks like the heavier rain is going to the north of houston. Are we still under the gun for 2-4 inches of rain from this event?

[srainhoutx]

Looks like the heavier rain is going to the north of houston. Are we still under the gun for 2-4 inches of rain from this event?

Keep an eye on our SW. The 'better' moisture resides closer to the Coast.

[biggerbyte]

Well, you know what they say about the weather in Texas... The forecast in this state for winter precip. is still evolving at this hour. I should have known better than to make a call earlier on. It sure looked a sure bet for areas north to get some sort of winter precip.. The models are simply no help, even down to the wire. Forecasting this event otherwise is any weather persons nightmare. Flip flop somehow does not cover it.