January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[sleetstorm]

Soundings show that the cap will be eliminated tonight....low level shear is impressive. Tornadoes will be possible along with damaging winds. Stg/Svr tstms should spread inland and up the coast gradually overnight. Stand by for possible MCD's, watches and warnings.

What does the acronym MCD's stand for, wxman666?

[wxman666]

Soundings show that the cap will be eliminated tonight....low level shear is impressive. Tornadoes will be possible along with damaging winds. Stg/Svr tstms should spread inland and up the coast gradually overnight. Stand by for possible MCD's, watches and warnings.

What does the acronym MCD's stand for, wxman666?

It refers to Mesoscale Discussion products issued by the Storm Prediction Center...which either talk about severe weather and potential weather watch issuances or winter weather events.

[srainhoutx]

21Z SREF suggests some spin in the upper levels near the San Antonio area @ hour 18...

[wxman666]

21Z SREF suggests some spin in the upper levels near the San Antonio area @ hour 18...

Interesting.

[srainhoutx]

21Z SREF suggests some spin in the upper levels near the San Antonio area @ hour 18...

Interesting.

By hour 24, it certainly is...

[sambucol]

21Z SREF suggests some spin in the upper levels near the San Antonio area @ hour 18...

Interesting.

By hour 24, it certainly is...

Why is that interesting?

[wxman666]

21Z SREF suggests some spin in the upper levels near the San Antonio area @ hour 18...

Interesting.

By hour 24, it certainly is...

That spin is.....right on top of us isn't it?

[srainhoutx]

That mesoscale model suggests a closed upper low. That tends to mean a strong feature with more dynamics at play. This event will be an interesting storm to follow. It's been many years since we've seen a Southern Storm wrap up the East Coast.

[srainhoutx]

00Z NAM suggests N TX and points E along and N of deformation zone receive a nice thump of wintry weather @ hour 24...

[wxman666]

Check out the convective initiation coming into SW TX. I presume that's our low?

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php

[mwbwhorton]

Well im starting to think the 4-8 inches might be conservative as that's what jackson says for me due to some of the stong dynamics that are already showing have digital camera so im hoping to send a few pics if we have power by tommorrow night.
Anyways looks as though i may get the most snow weve seen in a long time even though local tv mets are saying the models are overdoing it and on said they were flat out crazy...

[vbhoutex]

Check out the convective initiation coming into SW TX. I presume that's our low?

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php

That is the ULL. The surface low has yet to form from what I see, based on radar only. If I am incorrect feel free to correct me, but that is what I see based on radar.

[redneckweather]

A 3 hour trip to Tyler/Longview is just a tad bit too long. That's 6 hours+ of driving tomorrow. If this was a day earlier I would be all over it since I would stay the night up that way. I gotta be @ work Monday morning. Darn the luck.

[wxman666]

Well...my storm migraine has finally hit to what I hope is full force. Like some people suffer arthritis during stormy weather patterns...I get migraine headaches before a storm moves in. Hope that accounts for something because not ending up with any activity and going through the pain anyway would suck, lol.

[srainhoutx]

A 3 hour trip to Tyler/Longview is just a tad bit too long. That's 6 hours+ of driving tomorrow. If this was a day earlier I would be all over it since I would stay the night up that way. I gotta be @ work Monday morning. Darn the luck.

Who knows? Come mid week with cold air firmly entrenched and an Upper Air disturbance, we may not have to drive at all… mrgreen:

[wxman666]

Check out the convective initiation coming into SW TX. I presume that's our low?

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php

That is the ULL. The surface low has yet to form from what I see, based on radar only. If I am incorrect feel free to correct me, but that is what I see based on radar.

Ah okay. So are we expecting intensification once the surface low develops? Or are the strong storms solely a product of the ULL?

[TexasBreeze]

Sunday isn't the best day to make a long trip, especially 6 hrs.

[wxman666]

NWS Shreveport has put portions of their CWA in a Winter Storm Warning, including the city of Tyler.


Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
721 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

.A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FOUR STATE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH WINTER PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. THE WINTER
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THE PREDAWN HOURS
SUNDAY MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

LAZ018-019-TXZ136-150-091100-
/O.EXA.KSHV.WS.W.0001.110109T1200Z-110110T0600Z/
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-SMITH-RUSK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NATCHITOCHES...WINNFIELD...TYLER...
HENDERSON
721 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
CST SUNDAY NIGHT...

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING
IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR ICE...SLEET...AND SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT.

* RAIN AND SLEET WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT THEN CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
IN THE MID MORNING...THEN BACK OVER TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW WITH A MIX OF SLEET DURING THE
EVENING.

* ICE ACCUMULATION DUE TO A MIX OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS
ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE ONE TO UP TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW.

* SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...
CREATING HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MORNING COMMUTE ON MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ICE...SLEET...AND SNOW MEANS WINTER
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SMALL AMOUNTS OF ICE AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WITH SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS.
IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...WARM
CLOTHING AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

&&

$$

[wxman666]

A refresh of the D/FW Winter Storm Watch....


Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
741 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

TXZ093>095-102>107-117>123-131>134-091000-
/O.CON.KFWD.WS.A.0001.110109T0900Z-110110T0600Z/
GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-PARKER-
TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...PARIS...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...GREENVILLE...COMMERCE...COOPER...
SULPHUR SPRINGS...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...
DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...KAUFMAN...FORNEY...WILLS POINT...
CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...EDGEWOOD...EMORY...POINT...
EAST TAWAKONI...GRANBURY...OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...
CLEBURNE...BURLESON...WAXAHACHIE...ENNIS...MIDLOTHIAN...
GLENN HEIGHTS
741 PM CST SAT JAN 8 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM CST SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM CST
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING INTO FAR WEST TEXAS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND AFFECT NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT. AREAS
OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE
SURGES NORTHWARD. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE FREEZING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SNOW BEGINNING
SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS A VERY
FLUID SITUATION AND MANY FACTORS MAY CHANGE THE FORECAST. IT
SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT IF TEMPERATURES WERE TO BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER...NO SNOW WOULD FALL IN AND AROUND THE METROPLEX. AT THIS
TIME...TEMPERATURES DO APPEAR TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW
AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE EAST OF
THE AREA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

PORTIONS OR ALL OF THIS WATCH COULD BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING OVERNIGHT IF THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY ARE NOW.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
PERSONS WITH PLANNED TRAVEL ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
INTO LOUISIANA ON SUNDAY SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
CLOSELY FOR ANY CHANGES.

$$

[wxman666]

Oh cool! We still have the midnight update from SPC coming up. I had forgotten. I am anxious to see that.