February 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Looks like we've escaped this one re: ice. Best wishes to those in Austin and DFW. Power outages and nasty ice still are inundating these urban areas and the countryside.

From Burleson Co...only about 15 miles from my location.
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Stratton20
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Just my two cents on the month of February, I think its will be overall near normal to slightly above normal temps, but I also think we will see above normal precipitation, i also think we will have at least 1 more arctic blast before winter is officially over, GFS is pretty active with multiple troughs digging down over the next several weeks, thats why i think we will be closer to average in terms of temperatures, just my opinion though
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MontgomeryCoWx
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redneckweather wrote: Wed Feb 01, 2023 12:44 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Wed Feb 01, 2023 11:32 am 70s might be returning next week, absolutely depressing

Bring it. The sooner the 80's and higher get here the better.
Who hijacked your account and what is wrong with you? :lol:
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davidiowx
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Feb 01, 2023 5:25 pm
redneckweather wrote: Wed Feb 01, 2023 12:44 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Wed Feb 01, 2023 11:32 am 70s might be returning next week, absolutely depressing

Bring it. The sooner the 80's and higher get here the better.
Who hijacked your account and what is wrong with you? :lol:
I think Jason did :lol:
Stratton20
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seeing some light snow flurries here
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GBinGrimes
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DoctorMu wrote: Wed Feb 01, 2023 1:15 pm Welp. Severe Season is probably next. It brings needed rain, but also hail and tornadic activity here in the NW counties where the cap is weaker. I've noticed in my time in Texas that severe weather in CLL area arrives earlier in (March) than decades ago with less action in April/May in the traditional "tornado alley." More tornados in the Southeastern US and less in tornado alley has been the trend over the past few decades, likely linked to climate change.
Climate change=the earth wobbles and weather patterns diffuse. Climate change has zero, ZERO, to do with carbon emissions and all that woke BS mantra. No one talks about all the concrete replacing grass, and all those NON GREEN windmills that destroy thousands of acres of pristine land, or all of the NON GREEN battery initiatives, or all of the metropolitan areas leaving the skyscraper lights on ALL NIGHT. Think about it.
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DoctorMu
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GBinGrimes wrote: Wed Feb 01, 2023 10:27 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Wed Feb 01, 2023 1:15 pm Welp. Severe Season is probably next. It brings needed rain, but also hail and tornadic activity here in the NW counties where the cap is weaker. I've noticed in my time in Texas that severe weather in CLL area arrives earlier in (March) than decades ago with less action in April/May in the traditional "tornado alley." More tornados in the Southeastern US and less in tornado alley has been the trend over the past few decades, likely linked to climate change.
Climate change=the earth wobbles and weather patterns diffuse. Climate change has zero, ZERO, to do with carbon emissions and all that woke BS mantra. No one talks about all the concrete replacing grass, and all those NON GREEN windmills that destroy thousands of acres of pristine land, or all of the NON GREEN battery initiatives, or all of the metropolitan areas leaving the skyscraper lights on ALL NIGHT. Think about it.
With all due respect, take the politics-fed and tin foil hat stuff off this board. The CO2 molecule doesn't care about any of that.
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DoctorMu
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Anyway, just glad we have escaped a major ice event and there were a few flakes of snow earlier this evening.

Please hold those 350K without power in Texas in your thoughts.
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jasons2k
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GBinGrimes wrote: Wed Feb 01, 2023 10:27 pm No one talks about all the concrete replacing grass, and all those NON GREEN windmills that destroy thousands of acres of pristine land, or all of the NON GREEN battery initiatives, or all of the metropolitan areas leaving the skyscraper lights on ALL NIGHT. Think about it.
I find it comical when folks say “No one talks about…” and then proceed to post a bunch of talking points that are debated every single day.

Dude, ALL of those things are “talked about” AKA researched extensively in the scientific community. You really think a bunch of climate scientists with PHDs aren’t smart enough to figure that out but somehow these politicians and talking heads (who couldn’t pass a 6th grade earth science quiz) have all the answers?

You’ve picked the wrong crowd to pass off this charlatan BS to.
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djmike
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Ok. I’m over the cold and wet. Carry on. Lol
Mike
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(IH-10 & College Street)
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tireman4
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And the current weather....

XUS64 KHGX 021131
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
531 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 408 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023

We`re beginning to crawl out of this most recent wintry event in
Southeast Texas, but we`re not quite done yet. As showers continue
and temperatures remain around or below freezing early this
morning, here`s what we`re looking at today and in the week to
come:

① A winter storm warning remains in place for Burleson County, and
a winter weather advisory in Washington, Brazos, Madison, and
Houston counties through 6am while the lingering potential for
one last bit of icing wraps up.

② Today`s forecast will focus on temperatures rising to around or
into the 40s, rain chances tailing off late in the day, and how
quickly we`ll see low clouds begin to lift and scatter (spoiler
alert: wait until tomorrow). On the waters, a small craft advisory
is in place for this afternoon through tomorrow for gusty offshore
winds.

③ The weekend and beginning of next week will be marked by fair
weather and a warming trend that will be most pronounced from
Sunday to Tuesday.

④ Beyond Tuesday, it`s hard to come up with much more than a broad
sketch of what to expect. What there is high confidence in is a
general return to more active weather; with increased clouds,
rain chances, and cooling in temperatures. Stay tuned as we iron
out the specifics in the days to come.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 408 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023

Temperatures this morning have largely remained on track with the
previous forecast, generally keeping near freezing across our
northwestern counties with Caldwell chilling around 32.7 F as of the
time of writing. Latest high res guidance indicate that conditions
won`t really get much colder than this (at least for this morning).
That being said, portions of Burleson county (mainly the northwest
quadrant) could still nudge below freezing during the early morning.
Ongoing rain/drizzle may still prove problematic for elevated
surfaces (such as bridges and overpasses) with this shallow Arctic
airmass still in place. With this in mind, the Winter Weather
Advisory and Winter Storm Warning will remain in effect until 6 AM.

Light showers and drizzle should transition to more moderate, steady
rainfall later this morning as an upper level trough (currently over
W Texas/N Mexico) pushes eastward towards our area while a coastal
trough rides up the Texas coastline. High res models depict a 30
knot LLJ setting up over the region with PWATS in the range of 1.2-
1.4 inches. However, rainfall totals will only be around 0.1-0.5"
for today, which is rather unimpressive considering that the lowest
3hr FFG still sits around 2-3" in our CWA. After 6 AM today, our
area will no longer be under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall.
These showers should begin to diminish this afternoon, later
tapering off this evening. Cloudy skies should largely keep
temperatures in the 30s across the region and 40s along the
immediate coast. A few of our northernmost counties may reach the
freezing mark, though no precipitation is expected.

Surface high pressure drops in from the Central/Southern Plains on
Friday with cloudy skies clearing out during the afternoon. This
should improve radiative heating, allowing highs to climb into the
50s despite the persistent northerly flow. Though, drier air
filtering in from the north should bring lows down a tad more for
Friday night, with our northernmost counties looking to drop into
the upper 20s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 408 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023

Saturday morning sees us continuing a fairly prolonged stretch of
quiet weather. After all the tornadoes and flooding and gales and
fog and freezing rain one after another, it`s going to be quite
the shift...and quite welcome!

A shortwave trough looks to roll across the Central Plains
Saturday, largely too far north to have much impact on us. While
any surface front will stall out far short of our area, there are
some indications in the guidance that we may get a brief visit of
northwest flow as low as 850 mb Saturday night, and this may slow
the onset of real solid warm advection until Sunday. Because of
this, I don`t get too carried away with any warming on Saturday,
keeping highs in the 50s to around 60 degrees.

With the surface flow switching around to being onshore Saturday
though as high pressure sets up over the Southeast, setting up a
return Gulf flow - albeit modest at first - is likely going to
swamp any weird quirks of how quickly an 850 mb cold pool
retreats, so my lows Saturday night/Sunday morning I surge back
into the 50s at the coast, and even to around 40 degrees in our
northernmost reaches. This is only around seasonal averages for
spots like College Station, Caldwell, and Crockett...but after
several days of sub-freezing nights and a freezing rain event,
`normal` probably sounds pretty dadgum nice.

Sunday through Tuesday is all about the warming trend thanks to
modest ridging aloft and developing low pressure out over West
Texas tightening the pressure gradient and strengthening onshore
flow. By Tuesday morning, we should expect low temperatures that
look an awful lot like my forecast highs for Saturday! In the
afternoon, we`ll see the first taste of the lower 70s emerge on
the Coastal Plain Sunday, expand area-wide Monday, and see our
warm spots on Tuesday at least threaten the 80 degree mark.

After that...things get...fuzzy. We`re going to have to very
carefully watch the evolution of the upper trough I hinted at
earlier by mentioning a developing low out west. I have very high
confidence that heading into the middle of next week, we will have
an upper trough digging in! And a good bit of vorticity looks to
shoot into the Desert Southwest, and scrape through Texas as the
week goes on. You may ask "How precisely is that going to
happen?" And this is where I channel my inner Willy Wonka (the
Gene Wilder version, naturally) and say "You`ll have to speak up
next time, I`m a trifle deaf in this ear."

There is a broad range of opinion in the deterministic guidance on
this - the Euro is the fastest, as it keeps the southern
vorticity from fully pinching off of the northern stream trough.
This keeps the trough more open and progressive, marching quickly
through. The GFS is a good example of the other extreme, more
fully pinching that vort max off, letting it amble through at a
more leisurely pace. All the other guidance has some variation on
one of these two extremes, nobody quite the same as anyone else.
So, uh...yeah...I have published a deterministic forecast because
I have to. For what it`s worth, I`ve made little to no change from
the deterministic NBM here, which currently tends to favor the
Euro. But for a more useful idea of the weather to come, one is
much better off thinking in a probabilistic, ensemble framework.

If I had to sum it all up, I`d describe Tuesday afternoon on as
"messy". My PoPs are highest in the whole period on Tuesday night,
though that`s more a function of having multiple characters of
precip possible. In a fast scenario, we`re looking at pre-frontal
and frontal rain and storms. In a slow scenario, we`re looking at
nocturnal streamer showers from isentropic upglide. From there on
out, PoPs get smeared out through the rest of the forecast period.
It`s probably not because we`ll see the same weather through this
period, but that there`s uncertainty in the timing of more
specific episodes of rain. I`d expect in the days to come (I
hope!) that confidence in a more specific solution is increased,
and the PoP gradients sharpen up some - with some periods going
higher, and others lower.

It is interesting to note, that my pattern recognition has me
keying in on a slow, bowling ball of vorticity wandering through
slowly, making me pull my hair out day after day. But in glancing
at some ensemble cluster analysis, I might be simply
psychologically targeting a possible scenario that makes me pull
my hair out. Of the four primary clusters of the 500 mb pattern in
GEFS, the most prominent is a medium-speed solution, and the
second most prominent is a fast, Euro-like pattern. The slow
bumblers are the bottom two clusters. This is in contrast to its
deterministic GFS partner, and tends to back up a forecast like
the NBM (and why I`ve chosen not to make many changes from it).
But until we start getting some real consensus on things, I for
one, will continue to harbor nervousness about a much more irksome
weather pattern late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 517 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023

IFR to LIFR CIGS and rain can be expected across SE this morning,
with isolated thunderstorms possible at our northern terminals
(KCLL, KUTS, KCXO). Showers and storms should begin to taper off
this afternoon, though CIGS will likely stay around IFR levels
throughout the day and overnight. CIGS should begin to lift and
clear late tonight/early Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 408 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023

Moderate to occasionally strong offshore winds and slightly elevated
seas can be expected through the end of the week. Caution flags
are up on all waters early this morning, with a small craft
advisory poised to begin this afternoon. Rain and showers can be
expected to linger into this morning and then end as a low
pressure center exits and drags a cold front across the waters.

Onshore winds will resume this weekend. Generally light to
occasionally moderate winds should prevail in this pattern through
the weekend. Strengthening south to southeast winds and building
seas are anticipated for the start of next week, with a return of
rain chances in the middle to late week.

Water levels are expected to be fairly low today and tomorrow,
falling to around MLLW at low tide this morning and to around 0.5
feet below MLLW at low tide tomorrow morning at the Galveston Bay
Entrance. At Manchester and Morgans Point, low tide tomorrow
morning may fall to between 0.5 and 1.0 feet below MLLW. While
these water levels are something for mariners to be aware of,
this is typically not a water level that creates a need for a low
water advisory on Galveston Bay, though it may come close in upper
portions of the Houston Ship Channel.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 40 33 50 30 / 80 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 43 37 57 35 / 80 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 47 43 56 47 / 70 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
TXZ163-176-196-197.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for
TXZ195.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 3 PM CST this
afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM CST Friday
for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 PM CST Friday
for GMZ350-355.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST Friday
for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Luchs
redneckweather
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Feb 01, 2023 5:25 pm
redneckweather wrote: Wed Feb 01, 2023 12:44 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Wed Feb 01, 2023 11:32 am 70s might be returning next week, absolutely depressing

Bring it. The sooner the 80's and higher get here the better.
Who hijacked your account and what is wrong with you? :lol:
Man, I think Colorado put the nail in the coffin with me and the cold. lol Then I come home to dreary/drizzly get in the bones type of cold...absolutely brutal. Definitely ready for some sun and warmer weather.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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redneckweather wrote: Thu Feb 02, 2023 8:52 am
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Feb 01, 2023 5:25 pm
redneckweather wrote: Wed Feb 01, 2023 12:44 pm


Bring it. The sooner the 80's and higher get here the better.
Who hijacked your account and what is wrong with you? :lol:
Man, I think Colorado put the nail in the coffin with me and the cold. lol Then I come home to dreary/drizzly get in the bones type of cold...absolutely brutal. Definitely ready for some sun and warmer weather.
All Colorado did for me was me wanting 6 more months of Winter.
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Cromagnum
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Not to fear. Mosquito and sauna season is right around the corner. Then 5-6 months of hellfire.
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jasons2k
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Thu Feb 02, 2023 9:45 am
redneckweather wrote: Thu Feb 02, 2023 8:52 am
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Feb 01, 2023 5:25 pm

Who hijacked your account and what is wrong with you? :lol:
Man, I think Colorado put the nail in the coffin with me and the cold. lol Then I come home to dreary/drizzly get in the bones type of cold...absolutely brutal. Definitely ready for some sun and warmer weather.
All Colorado did for me was me wanting 6 more months of Winter.
Winter is a completely different experience in a place like Colorado - a state with a whole industry built around winter activities. Winter here is just miserable. Especially when it’s 36 and raining. Like RedNeckWx said - Yes, it cuts all the way to your bones. Nothing but brutal misery for me.

Still monitoring Sat am for that (hopefully last) freeze. I will be covering things up to be safe.
Last edited by jasons2k on Thu Feb 02, 2023 11:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Feb 02, 2023 10:19 am
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Thu Feb 02, 2023 9:45 am
redneckweather wrote: Thu Feb 02, 2023 8:52 am

Man, I think Colorado put the nail in the coffin with me and the cold. lol Then I come home to dreary/drizzly get in the bones type of cold...absolutely brutal. Definitely ready for some sun and warmer weather.
All Colorado did for me was me wanting 6 more months of Winter.
Winter is a completely different experience in a place like Colorado - a state with a whole industry built around winter activities. Winter here is just miserable. Especially when it’s 36 and raining. Like MoCoWx said - Yes, it cuts all the way to your bones. Nothing but brutal misery for me.

Still monitoring Sat am for that (hopefully last) freeze. I will be covering things up to be safe.

Winter here is extremely tolerable for people like yourself who love warm weather. I think the roughest season in Texas is clearly Summer, because you can actually over exert yourself easily and the temps are unbearable, not to mention the humidity.

It’s funny this conversation takes place every year when we have a weak cold snap with rain. Everyone says they want warm weather, then Hell hits and the boring weather from May to September has everyone wishing for cold again.

Yo Yo personality. I’m all cold all the time. March and April can be nice when the humidity isn’t present and of course, outside of the allergy problems in the Spring.
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Cromagnum
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Houston weather is mostly terrible. There is a couple month window in the spring where it's nice (when it doesn't storm), and potentially a month or two in the fall (if we even have one that year).
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jasons2k
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Thu Feb 02, 2023 11:20 am
jasons2k wrote: Thu Feb 02, 2023 10:19 am
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Thu Feb 02, 2023 9:45 am

All Colorado did for me was me wanting 6 more months of Winter.
Winter is a completely different experience in a place like Colorado - a state with a whole industry built around winter activities. Winter here is just miserable. Especially when it’s 36 and raining. Like RedNeckWx said - Yes, it cuts all the way to your bones. Nothing but brutal misery for me.

Still monitoring Sat am for that (hopefully last) freeze. I will be covering things up to be safe.

Winter here is extremely tolerable for people like yourself who love warm weather. I think the roughest season in Texas is clearly Summer, because you can actually over exert yourself easily and the temps are unbearable, not to mention the humidity.

It’s funny this conversation takes place every year when we have a weak cold snap with rain. Everyone says they want warm weather, then Hell hits and the boring weather from May to September has everyone wishing for cold again.

Yo Yo personality. I’m all cold all the time. March and April can be nice when the humidity isn’t present and of course, outside of the allergy problems in the Spring.
Yes it comes up every time :lol: :lol: We have to keep it lively :D

Summers here are becoming less tolerable than they used to be. I'm good up until about 95F and then that's too hot for me. It's getting above 95 a lot more frequently now. The same thing has been happening in Florida. I have relatives down there who were born in Florida in the 1950's and 1960's. The rest of my Florida relatives moved down in the 1970's and 1980's. Many of them complained on social media that the summer of 2022 was nothing like they had ever felt before. Florida just doesn't experience Texas-style heat, but they did last summer. That's what happens when you combine climate change + a ton of concrete everywhere. A lot of old cypress swamps around Tampa and Orlando are now neighborhoods. Anyway, for me, the weather in Hawaii is perfect. I can fly to Colorado or New Mexico when I want to ski.

IIRC, last spring was a nice prolonged spring with plenty of rain, and the heat didn't kick-in until Summer. There wasn't much to complain about last year until the flash drought/heat wave that came later in the summer. Maybe we'll have a similar Spring season this year.

BTW - next week looks very wet again. I still haven't emptied my rain gauge from last weekend but it has somewhere around 6" in the bucket.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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I am loving this rain. I will never complain about rain!
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