More cold air on the way next week!?

[C2G]

So now the EVENT appears to be more of a central, north Texas and possibly southern plains event?

[don]

Its too early to say COULD be a southeast texas event also

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff...

Intense meso low moving up the coast this morning with very strong surface winds.

ASOS sites at Pearland and Ellington have been gusting to over 45mph this morning in the small area from Pearland to Baytown and then ESE over Galveston Bay within a region a sharp pressure gradient.

Models have handled this event fairly poorly even with their decent run to run consistency...fact is the surface low is still somewhere over deep S TX and not over the upper TX coast and is much weaker than forecast. Rainfall totals have been more towards the lower end of the forecasted amounts...generally in the .5 to 1.0 inch range. Ground truth gages show 1.0-2.0 inches over S Harris County where 88D is showing between 1-2 inches. Feel the areas of 1 inch on the radar are likely closer to 2 inches especially near the coast and out over our western counties.

Main area of rain is shifting eastward this morning...although radars to the west still show more development...so not ready to clear out all rain chances just yet with 150kt jet nearby and the upper trough still to our west. Passing showers will be possible into tonight and may become more concentrated at times with passing disturbances rotating around the large upper trough over NM.

Tides have remained in fairly good shape overnight with a weaker and still far SW surprised surface low the winds have not increased into gale force over the NW Gulf which has helped to keep tides in the 1-2 foot range. Strong winds over Galveston Bay the past few hours have pushed tides to around 2.0 feet on the west side of the Bay and 1.8-2.0 feet at Clear Lake which is well below any critical thresholds.

Hard pressed to get very excited about clearing Friday or Saturday as GFS traps moisture below 850mb inversion...similar to last weekend. Short term models are showing more clearing and if we can mix enough we may be able to break out on Saturday...hopefully we will as the active storm track over the state looks to bring some nasty stuff next week.

Extended:

Next storm will move into the state on Monday with clouds increasing Sunday and rain starting Monday and continuing into Tuesday. Cold arctic air mass will be unleashed by this system and pour into TX starting Tuesday. Feel all rainfall will end prior to colder air reaching the area...hence all liquid.

Bigger developing trend appears to be highly active southern stream to bring at least 3 more systems over the state post Mon-Tues with cold arctic air in place. Could see multiple winter storm threats middle next week into next weekend with snow/sleet/ice across large parts of the state...this is still 5-7 days away so much can change.

Active weather looks to continue for the next 14 days with storm systems lined up well into the Pacific. Will see chances for rain about every 2-3 days with slim chances of sun between systems. Clouds and rain will continue to keep temperatures below normal for the next 2 weeks with highs next week after Tuesday only in the mid 40's...and possibly colder. Cold and wet winter of 09-10 continues on....

[wxman57]

I agree, I didnt have ne problems with the conformation code either. They were actually pretty big letters

When I tried to register yesterday, the numbers/letters were not on a plain background as they are today. There were many horizontal, vertical and diagonal lines and blotches of different colors crossing through the letters and numbers. Made them impossible to see. I could only make out maybe one of the six or seven letters.

[Portastorm]

I agree, I didnt have ne problems with the conformation code either. They were actually pretty big letters

When I tried to register yesterday, the numbers/letters were not on a plain background as they are today. There were many horizontal, vertical and diagonal lines and blotches of different colors crossing through the letters and numbers. Made them impossible to see. I could only make out maybe one of the six or seven letters.

That was my experience as well Wxman57. I took a WAG at the code and got lucky ... very lucky considering I'm color blind which made this exercise even more difficult!

[wxman57]

Ok, let's try a picture on this forum. Here's a meteogram I just made for IAH from the 06Z GFS (midnight last night). It goes out 180 hours (7 1/2 days). It is looking fairly cool toward the end of next week and there is some precip indicated. But I've seen way too much model inconsistency in recent days to have any confidence in how cold it'll get here and if/when any precip will occur:



I modified my spreadsheet to cover the extended part of the GFS forecast - from 180 to 384 hours out. This part has only 12 hr forecast intervals vs. the 3 hr intervals for 0-180 hrs:

[srainhoutx]

Valentine's Day Weekend looks real interesting, if it verifies...no Ice please...

[wxman57]

Valentine's Day Weekend looks real interesting, if it verifies...no Ice please...

This weekend may be our only chance of sunshine all month. With that active southern stream we may be in for one storm after another. The main issue as far as snow down here will be getting a really BIG shot of cold air into Texas. Borderline cold means very cold rain mixed with sleet and/or a little freezing rain. Miserable...

And my wife just told me she took a job on Friday that's a "rush", meaning she's working all weekend. Guess I'll bike alone.

Oh, final note of interest - Houston's greatest snowfalls have come on or near Valentine's Day.

[srainhoutx]

Valentine's Day Weekend looks real interesting, if it verifies...no Ice please...

This weekend may be our only chance of sunshine all month. With that active southern stream we may be in for one storm after another. The main issue as far as snow down here will be getting a really BIG shot of cold air into Texas. Borderline cold means very cold rain mixed with sleet and/or a little freezing rain. Miserable...

And my wife just told me she took a job on Friday that's a "rush", meaning she's working all weekend. Guess I'll bike alone.

Appears the blocking may relax abit after Mid Month. That may allow some colder air to plunge S behind the big storm that is showing up via guidance in the longer range. The sun would be nice to see for a change.

[wxman57]

Check out Valentine's Day Climatology. Six of the ten greatest Houston snowfalls occurred in mid February near Valentine's Day.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_ ... valentines

[BiggieSmalls]

Bring on more cold!

[Portastorm]

(Long sigh) ... well, after two days of consistently showing a big winter storm for parts of central, west, and north Texas ... the freakin' 12z GFS run is much warmer and says a cold rain for most of us. I guess Wxman57 is right once again in that there is too much model variability to buy into one scenario for next week.

This is annoying!

[wxman57]

(Long sigh) ... well, after two days of consistently showing a big winter storm for parts of central, west, and north Texas ... the freakin' 12z GFS run is much warmer and says a cold rain for most of us. I guess Wxman57 is right once again in that there is too much model variability to buy into one scenario for next week.

This is annoying!

If there's too much model variability, then how can you determine that the current 12Z run is better than yesterday's or the day before? Latest is not always greatest with model guidance. Consistency and agreement between models is the key to a higher confidence forecast.

[Puzzled1]

Cant wait to get this cold out of the way and finally have warmth and sun! It's funny tho beause the trees in my front yard are actually blooming in this weather!

[Portastorm]

(Long sigh) ... well, after two days of consistently showing a big winter storm for parts of central, west, and north Texas ... the freakin' 12z GFS run is much warmer and says a cold rain for most of us. I guess Wxman57 is right once again in that there is too much model variability to buy into one scenario for next week.

This is annoying!

If there's too much model variability, then how can you determine that the current 12Z run is better than yesterday's or the day before? Latest is not always greatest with model guidance. Consistency and agreement between models is the key to a higher confidence forecast.

Yeah, good point. I need to remember that. Latest isn't necessarily the greatest when it comes to the models.

[wxdata]

I'm past the wall of death



How does one make an avatar?

An Avatar is only a small picture. It can be no larger than 120 x 120 pixels and its size can only be 12k or less.

[wxman57]

Some new 12z Meteograms from the GFS. 12Z GFS is MUCH warmer for around Valentine's day than previous runs. Previously, it had most precip falling with the temp below 35. Now it has most precip falling with the temperatures in the 50s and 60s.

High-Res out to 180hrs:


Extended 180hrs to 384hrs:

[harpman]

Wow, that's quite a dramatic change! How would you explain smething that drastic?? The models still have no clue?

[wxman57]

Wow, that's quite a dramatic change! How would you explain smething that drastic?? The models still have no clue?

My coworker was pointing out that the 12Z GFS appears to not be handling the western U.S. trof correctly late next week. It's way different from the latest Euro now. I'd tend to disregard this 12Z GFS run.

Long-range ensemble forecasts are predicting that temps from Texas to the Mid Atlantic may be 12-15 degrees below normal from the 12th-18th of February.

[randybpt]

great new forum. registering again made me realize 2 things though i have lost my memory could not remember password and i need glasses with that confirmation letters, anyway i was randy77705.
that is huge change of runs but the last few runs imo were way too cold i mean highs in the 30s for a few days with rain no THANKS