More cold air on the way next week!?

[Paul]

I will be glad when we get out of this pattern. I cant recall the last time I saw the sun. Heres hoping the 06z trends warmer as well....

[C2G]

One last old man winter event.........then let spring start in earnest.
While this winter hasn't been earth shattering, unless, of course, you keep tabs on deviations from norms plus or minus a few degrees, it's been absolutely miserably cold.
I miss the fun in the sun.

[Mr. T]

I noticed some rather gusty winds earlier outside (gusts approaching 40 mph at IAH) as this current batch of rain began to push away. The NWS has issued a special weather statement regarding this tight pressure gradient and quick burst of blustery winds across the area:

500 AM CST THU FEB 4 2010

...STRONG GRADIENT WINDS...

A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE STRONG EAST WINDS FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH
WITH VERY LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 50 MPH. SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER IN
THE PERIOD.

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL TREE BRANCHES TO BE BROKEN...AND
UNSECURED OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE
OR NON-CONVERTABLE AUTOMOBILE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.


It was rather noisy outside for a little bit there, but things have calmed down here...

[Mr. T]

Man, it is so good to see forecaster #31 at HGX back for the morning discussions. No offense to the other fine forecasters at HGX, but I think he/she writes the most thorough and detailed discussions out of all the forecasters at HGX. It is pretty boring when the forecaster on duty only types out a small paragraph or a few sentences. Of course, I know it isn't their job title to write pretty discussions, but, you know...

DISCUSSION...
-RA...WITH POCKETS OF MORE MODERATE RA...ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAIN APPEARS TO BE BEHIND US...BUT RECENT
MODELING HAS DONE A POOR JOB AT THE LOCATION OF THE COASTAL SURFACE
LOW/TROF. YESTERDAY`S RUNS HAD EITHER A SURFACE LOW OR ELONGATED
TROF WELL UP THE COASTLINE AT THIS TIME...CURRENT POSITION IS WELL
UPSTREAM OVER THE VALLEY. HENCE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE HIGHEST
WITH THE RECENT SOLUTION(S) OF TAKING THE LOW (AN ASSOCIATED
ENERGY OF LL JET) FURTHER OFFSHORE....TAKING A NORTHEAST TREK
TOWARDS THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH A LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
ENTRY INTO THOSE PARISHES. PARING OFF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE DAY AS ONLY EXPECTING CONTINUED LIGHT TO (ISO)
MODERATE PERIODS OF RAIN...HIGHER QPF CLOSER TO THE COAST.

AN INTERESTING OVERNIGHT WIND PATTERN AS (WHAT SEEMS LIKE) A SMALL
MESO(MICRO)SCALE PUCKERING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM MATAGORDA
BAY NORTHEASTWARD INTO HOUSTON METRO HAS INCREASED WINDS TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A SHORT FUSE ADVISORY FOR
SW`ERN COUNTIES EARLIER IN SHIFT. ATTM...THIS FEATURE WAY TO SMALL
SCALE TO JUSTIFY BLANKETING ENTIRE CWA. EASTERLIES BACKING NORTHERLY
INTO TONIGHT WILL HAVE MOMENTS OF HIGHER GUSTS...IF NOTHING MORE
THAN FROM THE DESCENT OF RAIN-COOLED AIR CREATING THESE REGIONS OF
TIGHTER SMALLER SCALE T/P GRADIENTS.

UPPER TROF PASSAGE/NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS LATEST REGION OF
GULF TROFFING WILL AID IN INITIATING A MILD CAA PATTERN...FRONTAL
INVERSION TRAPPING ENOUGH MOISTURE UNDER SUB-85H LAYER TO CREATE A
CLOUDY AND COOL FRIDAY AND WEEKEND. CLIMATE NORMS IN THE MORNING
WILL SLUGGISHLY WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 50S. DRY ALBEIT COOLER BY
AROUND 10 DEGREES FROM EARLY FEB MAX TEMP STANDARDS. REINFORCING HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDING DOWN OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY WILL BE
THE IMPETUS TO THE DELAY OF MILDER GULF RETURN FLOW. EASTERLIES
SUNDAY PM FINALLY SWING AROUND TO ONSHORE MONDAY AS HIGH BUILDS OVER
EASTERN SEABOARD AND PRESSURES DROP OVER WESTERN TEXAS.

A VERY BROAD 5H CENTRAL PLAINS TROF WILL PASS OVER TUESDAY...AHEAD
OF IT...THE NEXT COLD FROPA EARLY TUESDAY. ENOUGH TH-E 295K SFC
SW`ERN UPGLIDE OF NEAR-1.2" PWAT AIR OVER A RELATIVELY COOL DOME
TO KICK IN A DECENT CHANCE POPS (-SHRA) MONDAY. NORTHERLIES BEHIND
THIS MORE TRADITIONAL FROPA TO DRIVE IN A COLDER AIR MASS GOING
INTO MID-WEEK. RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCY ON HOW COLD...BUT HAVE
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND FORECAST MID-30 F SUNRISE TEMPS NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR. LARGER MID-WEEK STORY WILL BE IN THE DAILY MAX
TEMPS...THICKER CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLIES EQUATE TO INTERIOR HIGHS
ONLY REACHING THE AVERAGE MID 40S. 31


No mention of anything wintry for now...

[Portastorm]

The 0z GFS is certainly on board for a major winter storm next week for portions of central, west, and north Texas. The Canadian also in agreement. The trusty Euro is a little less eager with the event and that is bothersome to this poster who believes the Euro is usually money in the bank.

In their morning AFD, the Austin/San Antonio NWFSO references next week by writing:

THE NEXT BIG CHANGE WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK.
GFS IS SHOWING WINTER PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT IS AWFULLY
EARLY. NOT READY TO INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST. KEEP WATCHING THIS
SPACE FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

[don]

I know it doesn't really matter being this far out from the possible event but I was wondering why the GFS has such a large difference in 2m temps at hooks and IAH.At Hooks it has temperatures hovering around freezing with plenty of precip,while at IAH it has temps in the mid to upper 30's..?

Hook: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KDWH

IAH: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KIAH

[snowman65]

I just regisitered on the the forum. It was VERY easy. I don't understand all the remarks about the confirmation code being hard to read. The letters were almost 1/2" tall on my screen. How can you not read that????? I hope these aren't the same people trying to read the forecast maps and telling us what the future holds....LOLOL.....no wonder they are always BUSTING..LOL

[brazoria_county22]

I agree, I didnt have ne problems with the conformation code either. They were actually pretty big letters

[snowman65]

18z looks nice

Can someone please explain what the dark blue and red lines represent on these maps?? Thanks

[updraft]

I will be glad when we get out of this pattern. I cant recall the last time I saw the sun. Heres hoping the 06z trends warmer as well....

______________________________________________________________________________________

I'm with you on that - I actually thought I saw mold on my arms yesterday. But one more freeze might not be too bad - kill the remaining straggling-blood-sucking-pesky-mosquito's! Also, my lawn mower will get an extended vacation.

[C2G]

So now the EVENT appears to be more of a central, north Texas and possibly southern plains event?

[don]

Its too early to say COULD be a southeast texas event also

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff...

Intense meso low moving up the coast this morning with very strong surface winds.

ASOS sites at Pearland and Ellington have been gusting to over 45mph this morning in the small area from Pearland to Baytown and then ESE over Galveston Bay within a region a sharp pressure gradient.

Models have handled this event fairly poorly even with their decent run to run consistency...fact is the surface low is still somewhere over deep S TX and not over the upper TX coast and is much weaker than forecast. Rainfall totals have been more towards the lower end of the forecasted amounts...generally in the .5 to 1.0 inch range. Ground truth gages show 1.0-2.0 inches over S Harris County where 88D is showing between 1-2 inches. Feel the areas of 1 inch on the radar are likely closer to 2 inches especially near the coast and out over our western counties.

Main area of rain is shifting eastward this morning...although radars to the west still show more development...so not ready to clear out all rain chances just yet with 150kt jet nearby and the upper trough still to our west. Passing showers will be possible into tonight and may become more concentrated at times with passing disturbances rotating around the large upper trough over NM.

Tides have remained in fairly good shape overnight with a weaker and still far SW surprised surface low the winds have not increased into gale force over the NW Gulf which has helped to keep tides in the 1-2 foot range. Strong winds over Galveston Bay the past few hours have pushed tides to around 2.0 feet on the west side of the Bay and 1.8-2.0 feet at Clear Lake which is well below any critical thresholds.

Hard pressed to get very excited about clearing Friday or Saturday as GFS traps moisture below 850mb inversion...similar to last weekend. Short term models are showing more clearing and if we can mix enough we may be able to break out on Saturday...hopefully we will as the active storm track over the state looks to bring some nasty stuff next week.

Extended:

Next storm will move into the state on Monday with clouds increasing Sunday and rain starting Monday and continuing into Tuesday. Cold arctic air mass will be unleashed by this system and pour into TX starting Tuesday. Feel all rainfall will end prior to colder air reaching the area...hence all liquid.

Bigger developing trend appears to be highly active southern stream to bring at least 3 more systems over the state post Mon-Tues with cold arctic air in place. Could see multiple winter storm threats middle next week into next weekend with snow/sleet/ice across large parts of the state...this is still 5-7 days away so much can change.

Active weather looks to continue for the next 14 days with storm systems lined up well into the Pacific. Will see chances for rain about every 2-3 days with slim chances of sun between systems. Clouds and rain will continue to keep temperatures below normal for the next 2 weeks with highs next week after Tuesday only in the mid 40's...and possibly colder. Cold and wet winter of 09-10 continues on....

[wxman57]

I agree, I didnt have ne problems with the conformation code either. They were actually pretty big letters

When I tried to register yesterday, the numbers/letters were not on a plain background as they are today. There were many horizontal, vertical and diagonal lines and blotches of different colors crossing through the letters and numbers. Made them impossible to see. I could only make out maybe one of the six or seven letters.

[Portastorm]

I agree, I didnt have ne problems with the conformation code either. They were actually pretty big letters

When I tried to register yesterday, the numbers/letters were not on a plain background as they are today. There were many horizontal, vertical and diagonal lines and blotches of different colors crossing through the letters and numbers. Made them impossible to see. I could only make out maybe one of the six or seven letters.

That was my experience as well Wxman57. I took a WAG at the code and got lucky ... very lucky considering I'm color blind which made this exercise even more difficult!

[wxman57]

Ok, let's try a picture on this forum. Here's a meteogram I just made for IAH from the 06Z GFS (midnight last night). It goes out 180 hours (7 1/2 days). It is looking fairly cool toward the end of next week and there is some precip indicated. But I've seen way too much model inconsistency in recent days to have any confidence in how cold it'll get here and if/when any precip will occur:



I modified my spreadsheet to cover the extended part of the GFS forecast - from 180 to 384 hours out. This part has only 12 hr forecast intervals vs. the 3 hr intervals for 0-180 hrs:

[srainhoutx]

Valentine's Day Weekend looks real interesting, if it verifies...no Ice please...

[wxman57]

Valentine's Day Weekend looks real interesting, if it verifies...no Ice please...

This weekend may be our only chance of sunshine all month. With that active southern stream we may be in for one storm after another. The main issue as far as snow down here will be getting a really BIG shot of cold air into Texas. Borderline cold means very cold rain mixed with sleet and/or a little freezing rain. Miserable...

And my wife just told me she took a job on Friday that's a "rush", meaning she's working all weekend. Guess I'll bike alone.

Oh, final note of interest - Houston's greatest snowfalls have come on or near Valentine's Day.

[srainhoutx]

Valentine's Day Weekend looks real interesting, if it verifies...no Ice please...

This weekend may be our only chance of sunshine all month. With that active southern stream we may be in for one storm after another. The main issue as far as snow down here will be getting a really BIG shot of cold air into Texas. Borderline cold means very cold rain mixed with sleet and/or a little freezing rain. Miserable...

And my wife just told me she took a job on Friday that's a "rush", meaning she's working all weekend. Guess I'll bike alone.

Appears the blocking may relax abit after Mid Month. That may allow some colder air to plunge S behind the big storm that is showing up via guidance in the longer range. The sun would be nice to see for a change.

[wxman57]

Check out Valentine's Day Climatology. Six of the ten greatest Houston snowfalls occurred in mid February near Valentine's Day.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_ ... valentines