More cold air on the way next week!?

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sleetstorm
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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Post by sleetstorm » Tue Feb 09, 2010 7:37 pm

wxman57 wrote:This passing feature doesn't have nearly the cold air aloft that the December 2008 feature did. As the wave approaches, south and southeasterly winds in the lower levels (just above the surface) will advect warmer air aloft. Too warm for any significant winter precip here. Once the low/wave axis passes, the air aloft will cool. But the moisture will decrease very quickly after the low passes.

So, for Houston, lots (and lots) of cold miserable rain from tomorrow evening through late Thursday night, possibly mixed with a few sleet pellets at times.

But winter isn't over. Long-range guidance suggests some very cold air moving south out of Canada late next week, and that cold pattern may persist for a while. The southern stream will probably remain active. It's just a matter of timing as far as any future winter precip chances here this month.
Okay, thank you, wxman57. Now, how many hours of sleet, snow, or rain snow mix could southeast Texas get prior all it turns to liquid from around noon to evening? And how many hours during the evening before all of the precipitation exits Texas?

poobear55
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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Post by poobear55 » Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:23 pm

what's up? no replies since 7:37. trying to post to see if something is wrong with forum.
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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Post by poobear55 » Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:31 pm

after reading everyone's post this afternoon i thought this event was close but no cigar. then i watched the news tonight and gene norman seemed to be hyping or teasing us with a better chance for some type of frozen precip. so i got on line to see if something had changed. to get the real scoop. i am surprised at the lack of activity. i guess it really is a non-event.
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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Post by wxdata » Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:53 pm

poobear55 wrote:after reading everyone's post this afternoon i thought this event was close but no cigar. then i watched the news tonight and gene norman seemed to be hyping or teasing us with a better chance for some type of frozen precip. so i got on line to see if something had changed. to get the real scoop. i am surprised at the lack of activity. i guess it really is a non-event.
Since the NAM and GFS has been downers on snow chances here, interest has waned a bit..

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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Post by biggerbyte » Tue Feb 09, 2010 11:58 pm

Funny how as some of the models are downplaying the event, some of the local mets, including the fellow from Fox26, are giving the idea an uptick. The fact of the matter is, noone knows for sure about the winter precip. possibilities just yet. Everybody has their own idea, but all of it is just speculation.

Wednesday night will tell us much, but even then things could change as quickly as the night before. That is just how it is down here. You will not find much going on in this forum unless there is more certainty than we have now. Watching the models flip/flop gets old after a while.

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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Post by poobear55 » Wed Feb 10, 2010 12:31 am

Yeah, that seems to be the case here in se tex. winter weather is just to hard to predict. just when you think you have it figured out. mother nature lets you know who is in charge.
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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Post by Mr. T » Wed Feb 10, 2010 4:40 am

6z NAM and 6z GFS have trended towards the deeper European solutions (ECMWF, CMC, UKMET), but still not there yet... As such, HGX follows warm outlier GFS again, and this is what you get:

For Brazos County (HGX)
Tonight...Cloudy. A chance of rain in the evening...then rain likely after midnight. Lows in the mid 30s. Southeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent in the evening increasing to 70 percent after midnight.

Thursday...Rain. Highs in the lower 40s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Thursday Night...Cloudy. Rain likely in the evening...then a chance of rain after midnight. Lows in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent in the evening decreasing to 30 percent after midnight.



Now, just travel a county north out of the HGX zone and you get this:
For Robertson County (FWD)
Tonight...Cloudy. A slight chance of rain in the evening...then rain and snow likely after midnight. No snow accumulation. Lows in the mid 30s. Southeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Thursday...Rain and snow in the morning...then rain and a chance of snow in the afternoon. Very light to moderate snow accumulations possible on grass and elevated surfaces. Temperatures steady in the mid 30s. East winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Thursday Night...Rain and snow in the evening...then a chance of rain and snow after midnight. Lows in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.


Nice coordination... The fact that HGX is not even mentioning the chance of some snow or sleet mixing in with the rain across at least northern counties is baffling to me.

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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Post by weatherguy425 » Wed Feb 10, 2010 5:31 am

Hints about the future...
HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE PICTURE FOR SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AXIS LINGERS OUT WEST. AS SUCH ANOTHER S/WV PROGGED FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. AND WHILE THERE ARE CONCERNS WITH AVAILABLE MOIST-
URE...THE PERSISTENCE WITH WHICH MODELS ARE HANGING ONTO THIS DOES
GIVE PAUSE AND WILL LEAVE LOW POPS IN FOR SUNDAY. AS FOR THE LONG-
RANGE FCST...WE ARE ALSO SEEING A LOT MORE CONSENSUS WITH THE IDEA
OF HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO OUR WEST AND THE RESULTANT DEEP NNW
FLOW ALOFT FOR US. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO INCREASED CHANCES OF
ARCTIC AIRMASSES HEADED THIS WAY...WITH THE OCCASIONAL S/WV OR TWO.41

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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Post by Mr. T » Wed Feb 10, 2010 8:31 am

Remember that time the NAM and GFS began to drastically switch over to the Euro, CMC, and UKMET models showing a proper phase with that system out in the West?

OLD 0z NAM friday morning:

Image
Image


New 12z NAM friday morning:

Image
Image

Shifts again towards the Euro, UKMET, and CMC... It looks as though the NAM and GFS have been much too weak with this system and have not properly shown correct phasing with the northern stream as the coastal low develops and pushes off to the east.

Now, I don't know what specific soundings look like for IAH at that period, but there is likely some snow falling across northern areas of SE TX. The NAM still is not quite as strong or cold as the European trio, so today's 12z runs will be very critical to see if we have a developing suprise on our hands.

If the 0z CMC, Euro, or UKMET were to verify, the upper levels would be cold enough to support a changeover to snow over the Houston area as the coastal low scoots on by. 12z NAM is darn close, but it's trying to catch up.

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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Post by Mr. T » Wed Feb 10, 2010 8:41 am

Some very awful run to run consistency by the GFS and NAM in the handling of the upper air pattern within the 60 hour time frame here...
Just look at the handling of the NAM of the upper air pattern for friday morning. Bad.

Anyway, here is the 0z CMC I've been reference. It has remained steadfast with the chance of some wintry fun around the area for friday morning for a few runs now...

And, to try to make myself more clear, I'm not talking about accumulating snow or anything right now, just a much better chance at seeing some snow flying through the air around here friday morning... For one thing, surface temperatures would be marginal for accumulation and the system will be moving fast.

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