More cold air on the way next week!?

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redneckweather
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Re: Cold weather has arrived maybe wintry precip too?

Post by redneckweather » Tue Feb 09, 2010 10:46 am

Just got back from Leakey yesterday. I was completely out of the loop while out there, no t.v. and no cell phone and boy did I enjoy that! I was thinking about the possibility of wintry precip down here later this week but just as I thought, nothing but a bone chilling cold rain as usual. If anyone here wants to see snow, just head north a couple of hours and get into the fun.

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srainhoutx
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Re: Cold weather has arrived maybe wintry precip too?

Post by srainhoutx » Tue Feb 09, 2010 11:08 am

GGEM for Friday...

(click to enlarge)
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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don
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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Post by don » Tue Feb 09, 2010 11:17 am

While that looks nice if you want snow in southeast texas not buying it though...

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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Post by txsnowmaker » Tue Feb 09, 2010 11:30 am

Thank you for posting the Canadian model for Friday, srain. Would you mind giving a brief summary of the forecast for the city of Houston based on this model, were it to verify?

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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Post by srainhoutx » Tue Feb 09, 2010 11:40 am

txsnowmaker wrote:Thank you for posting the Canadian model for Friday, srain. Would you mind giving a brief summary of the forecast for the city of Houston based on this model, were it to verify?

If you will give me the winning numbers to the Lotto! Seriously, there is lack of consistancy with the models regarding the 'finer details'. The GFS says too warm and further S with the Upper Air Feature as well as the Coastal Low/trough. The Canadian wants to get things near the Coast and bring some wrap around moisture behind the low. As wxman57 likes to say or post a picture of, it's like pullling the lever on a slot machine. Most of the time you get nothing. But sometimes (although few) you get all 7's.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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don
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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Post by don » Tue Feb 09, 2010 11:51 am

Yea what the CMC suggest is that the low tracks closer to the coast and there for we get under the cold core of the low as rain changes to snow on the backside of the system similar to the 2008 snow event.But i dont think that will happen though...

On a Sidenote some of the GFS Esembles also show the same scenario playing out FWIW...
Last edited by don on Tue Feb 09, 2010 11:57 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Post by txsnowmaker » Tue Feb 09, 2010 11:58 am

Thank you for the feedback srain and don. I read on another forum that some of the GFS ensembles appear to be in agreement with the Canadian run. At this point, I will keep my expectations quite low for anything interesting this week. Of course, I am always happy to see expectations surpassed. ;)

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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Post by srainhoutx » Tue Feb 09, 2010 12:32 pm

Updated HPC 5 Day QPF Totals...
(Click to enlarge) We are working on some issues if you haven't guessed. ;)
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Post by srainhoutx » Tue Feb 09, 2010 12:43 pm

HPC Model Peference...hmmm...

...SYSTEM INITIALLY NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST...

PREFERENCE: ECMWF/UKMET/CMC COMPROMISE

THE NAM BECOMES A SLOW OUTLIER WITH THE UPR LOW COMPARED TO THE
GFS AND MAJORITY OTHER SOLNS FROM TUE NIGHT ONWARD. SOME 09Z
SREF/06-12Z GEFS MEMBERS DO OFFER POTENTIAL FOR THE SLOWER TIMING
THOUGH. THE NAM HAS YET TO DISPLAY A TREND TOWARD THE MAJORITY
FASTER SOLN BUT GIVEN A TYPICALLY SLOW BIAS WHEN THE NAM IS ON THE
SLOW EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD... WOULD FAVOR LEANING AWAY FROM
THE NAM WITH THE UPR SYSTEM AND EVENTUALLY THE SFC LOW THAT TRACKS
OVER THE GULF. AMONG THE NON-NAM GUIDANCE THE GFS BECOMES MORE
SUPPRESSED WITH THE GULF SFC LOW THAN MOST SOLNS ASIDE FROM THE
06-12Z GEFS MEANS... WHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET/CMC AND 00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW FASTER TIMING THAN THE GFS. THE
UKMET/CMC/ECMWF ARE ALL SOMEWHAT DEEPER THAN THE GFS WITH THE CORE
OF THE SHRTWV ALOFT BY LATE FRI. OVERALL THE GFS FCST APPEARS
BETTER THAN THE NAM... BUT GFS FLOW FROM THE PLAINS TO APLCHNS BY
LATE IN THE FCST IS NOT THE MOST PREFERRED. AS THE 12Z ECMWF
MAINTAINS GOOD CONTINUITY WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN... WILL ULTIMATELY
RECOMMEND A COMPROMISE AMONG THE ECMWF/UKMET/CMC WHICH TRACK THE
GULF OF MEXICO SFC LOW FARTHER NWD THAN THE GFS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: Cold weather has arrived with cold rain on the way...

Post by sleetstorm » Tue Feb 09, 2010 1:00 pm

Why would that wave of low pressure warm the atmosphere up in the mid and upper levels, Portastorm, Mr. T, srainhoutx, wxdata?

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