More cold air on the way next week!?

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wxdata
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Interesting, TVS alert now in Harris county near Galena Park.

edit: gone, but meso alert still there.......
sleetstorm
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Guys, Gene Norman showed two large hailstone core capable of producing quarter size hail stones. That was ausome. It seems as though Baytown just may receive some rather nasty and ugly weather after all. What about the rest of your current weather statuses?
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Katdaddy
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Still awaiting the line of storms down here in League City. That cell over SE Harris County is very intense with some bowing.
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Paul
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Katdaddy wrote:Still awaiting the line of storms down here in League City. That cell over SE Harris County is very intense with some bowing.

it will be there shortly...already here in Pearland
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Katdaddy
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The storms are here.......sheets of very heavy rain and some wind.
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Baytown's current temperature is 55.3 degrees fahrenheit.
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C2G
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Looks to be a north Texas/northeast Texas event.
Maybe hope will alter reality........no probably not. ;)
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:HPC Happiness Map

Image


No offense but I don't get this map. In PGH PA they are going to get another 6-8 inches tomorrow after getting approximately 20 inches this weekend but there are no lines to incicate that??
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SCSLAND
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As much as I love you guys (and I do....deeply and fondly).......

IT IS NOT GOING TO SNOW, SLEET OR FREEZE RAIN IN HOUSTON THIS WEEK!!!!!!


IMO
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wxman57
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warriormom wrote:

No offense but I don't get this map. In PGH PA they are going to get another 6-8 inches tomorrow after getting approximately 20 inches this weekend but there are no lines to incicate that??
It's the "Day 3" map, warriormom. It's valid for only on Day 3 - 72 hours out. The snow storm on the east coast is gone by then.
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I still think that temperatures forecast for wed, thurs, and fri may be a good five to ten degrees too warm, in my opinion. Particularly with terrific snowpack in states to our north, northeast, and northwest the cold air being radiated from all of that snow in those areas just might assist in reinforcing the much colder air that is already in place right now in southeast & it just may also cause our highs for those three days to be, again, much icier than what the computer models are depicting which could lead to x number of busts temperaturewise. What do you think?
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weatherag
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forecast soundings and progged thickness values per the 00z gfs continue to indicate just a cold rain for houston metro :?
'There's a spirit can ne'er be told...'
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Portastorm
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Well, in their morning AFD, NWSFO Austin/San Antonio concurs with the further south track of the upper-level trough suggested by both the 0z NAM and GFS. This means more warm air advection and less chances at significant wintry mix for me, although the end game of having the system pass overhead may bring some ... as Ed likes to say ... happiness and joy. We shall see.

Wxman57's comment last night about being more uneasy about guidance waffling less than 72 hours out from the event raises an eyebrow for me.
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It really surprises me that for a winter season that was predicted to be colder and wetter than average only produced a "trace" of snow back on the Dec 4th miracle and nothing even close since then. I'm sure there were alot of people wishing/hoping/praying for more frozen precipitation this winter but the reality is we just live in the wrong region for those hopes and wishes. I just doesn't happen here. Other than some cold and wet days ahead, this winter season is basically over. Even have to wait longer before planting a garden and we can blame that on a groundhog.....lol. But, the prediction was right. This year was colder and wetter than average but it would take some sort of historic climatic event to produce anymore fp in SE tx at this point. You can't go throught the winter season with blinders on and pretend we live up north. We're not in Kansas anymore (literally...lo). Alot of people see all of this snow coming down daily up north and ask "why can't we get some of that?". It's because you live in SE TX. A borderline sub-tropical climate.......
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srainhoutx
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Cross Polar Flow...hmmm...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
235 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2010

VALID 12Z SAT FEB 13 2010 - 12Z TUE FEB 16 2010

MODELS MAINTAIN RELATIVELY GOOD LARGE-SCALE CONTINUITY WITH PRIOR
RUNS IN DEPICTING SLOWLY MODULATING UPPER LOWS OVER ALASKA/NE
PACIFIC AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES/NEW ENGLAND...WITH A
COMPLICATED SERIES OF SMALLER WAVELENGTH UPPER LOWS/UPPER HIGHS
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN. THE RESULTING LONGWAVE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
LATITUDES HELPS TO PERPETUATE A SPLIT-FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY WITH
THE DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS...INCLUDING POTENTIAL INTERACTIONS BETWEEN
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. GENERALLY SPEAKING...SUCH A
PATTERN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR PERIODIC ARRIVAL OF SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST...WHICH THEN SPLIT...WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMING DOMINANT. HOWEVER...ONE NOTABLE
CHANGES OBSERVED THIS CYCLE IS FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF
THE COMPLICATED UPPER LOW OVER MANITOBA DAY 3 TO DROP SOUTHWARD
AND ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW TO ITS
NORTH...RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR COMING
STRAIGHT OUT OF NORTH CENTRAL CANADA.
THE ECWMF LIES ON THE FAST
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM...WITH GOOD PHASE
AGREEMENT SEEN AMONG THE GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET FOR SLOWER TIMING.
OTHERWISE...THE PRELIMINARY PRESSURES/FRONTS STARTED WITH A 70/30
GFS/GEFS MEAN BLEND DAYS 3-4...AND A 50/50 GFS/GEFS MEAN BLEND
DAYS 5-7.

JAMES
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wxman57
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It's still looking like very cold rain for Houston starting tomorrow afternoon, peaking during the day on Thursday and ending late Thursday night. Could be a few sleet pellets mixed in, and I wouldn't rule out a few snowflakes just north of the city. Nothing accumulating as surface temps will be above freezing during the event. If anything, model guidance has trended a bit "warmer" in recent runs, with less of a chance that the models are going to suddenly shift to a sub-freezing regime over Houston during the event.
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srainhoutx
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wxman57 wrote:It's still looking like very cold rain for Houston starting tomorrow afternoon, peaking during the day on Thursday and ending late Thursday night. Could be a few sleet pellets mixed in, and I wouldn't rule out a few snowflakes just north of the city. Nothing accumulating as surface temps will be above freezing during the event. If anything, model guidance has trended a bit "warmer" in recent runs, with less of a chance that the models are going to suddenly shift to a sub-freezing regime over Houston during the event.
I'm going to "pick your brain" for a moment wxman57. ;) I am seeing some signals that are rather unusual for the next couple of weeks in SE TX and the areas E of the Rockies. Do you feel that the much discussed MMW/SSW as well as severely negative AO, NAO, +PNA and -EPO episodes we are are experiencing along with a severe blocking regime spell much below average temps and a stormier period ahead for us? You know I and other members follow long range forecasting and would be interested in hearing your thoughts regardless of how painful it may be for those longing for Spring like many of us including yourself.
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I have said this numerous times in the past and I will say it again, never say never for you never know. ;)
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srainhoutx
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For what it is worth the 12Z NAM at hour 72 is yet again further S and a bit stronger with the Upper Air Feature...

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