More cold air on the way next week!?

[svrwx0503]

Temps are warming up into the mid-upper 60s which should help add a little bit more instability especially as the storms move into our central and southern zones; however, we will have to watch for the front to possibly undercut the storms if it gets moving south quicker than the storms. Looks like the the storms up in our northwest counties are still elevated in nature with just a hail and maybe a strong wind threat. Like the spc mentioned in their MD, low level shear will be on the decrease from west to east across the region along with the low level jet which should keep any surface based storms in check for the most part.

[svrwx0503]

Was looking at some model soundings for Thursday's mess and it still looks like a cold rain for Houston with maybe a sleet pellet mixed in across our far northern counties. Like wxman was saying a few pages back, the heaviest rain and therefore best chances for any type of evap cooling to occur will be closer to the coast, which is closer to the low in the gulf, although temps across our coastal counties will not be anywhere cold enough for frozen precip...even with the possibility of evap cooling.

[wxdata]

Ft. Worth/Dallas NWS just sent this out:

"We will be posting a Special Weather Statement/Winter Weather Outlook for the threat of snow north, a wintry mix south Thurs/Thurs Night. Uncertainties on storm strength, track, and amounts still remain as systems can either speed up/slow down, weaken, or change track. SPS will be out shortly and we have graphicast ongoing. We'll continue to refine for any future watches or advisories as the forecast becomes more certain. "

[wxdata]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
320 PM CST MON FEB 8 2010

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-092130-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
320 PM CST MON FEB 8 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...THERE COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ANOTHER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD OVER
ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS BUT REMAIN AT MODERATE LEVELS. COASTAL
FLOODING MAY BECOME AN ISSUE ALONG THE COASTS OF GALVESTON AND
BRAZORIA COUNTIES BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS FOR MORE INFORMATION AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.

[srainhoutx]

20Z Updated HPC Ensemble Low Tracks....

[wxdata]

Here's Ft. Worth's thinking on Thursday's snow event:

AREAS NORTH OF A KILLEEN TO WACO TO ATHENS LINE APPEAR TO HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING
AT THE ONSET OF THE EVENT...WHICH MEANS THAT SNOW WILL LIKELY MELT
INITIALLY...THEN ACCUMULATE AS HEAVIER BANDS DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THAT ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM COULD
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TOTALS.

[wxdata]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
343 PM CST MON FEB 8 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 445 PM CST

* AT 339 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES WEST OF
BRENHAM...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO QUARRY AND INDEPENDENCE..

[brazoria_county22]

So basically the threat for frozen prceip here in southeast tx is pretty much zero right?

[wxman57]

So basically the threat for frozen prceip here in southeast tx is pretty much zero right?

In Brazoria County it's not high, but it's not zero. Maybe 10% to 20% chance of a few sleet pellets. Perhaps 40-50% shot at some sleet pellets in NW Harris County. The chance of any accumulating precip in Harris or Brazoria County is much lower, closer to zero.

[wxdata]

Thinking from San Antonio NWS on this week's frozen precip event:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
351 PM CST MON FEB 8 2010

...A MIX OF WINTER PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...

A BLAST OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH
PUSHED THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS. THE COLD AIR
COULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A DISTURBANCE ALOFT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING RESULTING IN A MIXTURE OF RAIN...LIGHT SLEET...AND LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIGHT TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN
TO IMPACT THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE RAINFALL...THE RAIN COULD
AGAIN MIX WITH LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL CLOSE TO FREEZING OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...THERE REMAINS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY ICE ACCUMULATION. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND RAISED SURFACES...BUT
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WOULD BE
SMALL AND OF MINIMAL IMPACT.

[wxdata]

Houston NWS:

Just got a report of pea size hail in west side Brenham and pea size hail in Somerville a couple of minutes ago.

---

Now got a report of quarter to half dollar size just outside Brenham on 290. LSR will be out shortly.

[sleetstorm]

I read Gene Norman's blog on my cell phone and he stated that he honestly believes that the computer models are underestimating cold air because of the snowpack in states to our north, northeast, and northwest. He also said that depending on when the much icier air arrives and how dense that it is will determine what type of precipitation that falls.

[stormwatcher]

Very High winds, a blinding down pour, and pea size hail here in Grimes county. Almost blew my 14' x 14' barn door off!!!!!!!

[wxdata]

I see that. A hint of some bowing in that part of the line.

[sleetstorm]

Houston NWS:

Just got a report of pea size hail in west side Brenham and pea size hail in Somerville a couple of minutes ago.

---

Now got a report of quarter to half dollar size just outside Brenham on 290. LSR will be out shortly.

Wow! That is one nasty, ugly, and potent cluster of severe thunderstorms.

[Mr. T]

Some healthy looking thunderstorms look to pass through the area in the coming hours.

Should be "fun"

[stormwatcher]

Temp has droped a good 20 - 25 degrees also, Now temp at 48.

[srainhoutx]

Austin/San Antonio thinking regarding wintry precip...

THE BIG DILEMMA FOR THE FORECAST IS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WET
AND COLD PATTERN IS EXPECTED AS MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE ALOFT. THE CONCERN IS RESOLVING THE ISSUE OF WINTERY
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL INDICATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MIX OF RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY RAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE POTPOURRI OF WINTER WEATHER CONTINUES...WITH RAIN
AND/OR SNOW AND/OR SLEET POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT BECOMING A MIX
OF RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT ON THURSDAY INDICATE MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP
BECOMING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LATE THURSDAY. LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET ARE EXPECTED. COULD SEE SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND RAISED
SURFACES...BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS FOR THIS 24-36 HOUR TIME FRAME
WOULD BE OF MINIMAL IMPACT. IDEALLY...IT WOULD BE AS CLEAR-CUT AS
THIS...BUT ANTICIPATED EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE SURFACE AND
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY ALTER THE FORM OF THE
PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS SAID...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A COLD AND
WET MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THE WINTER
EVENT.

Shreveport...

.LONG TERM...
THE SAINTS WON THE SUPERBOWL AND SNOW IS IN THE FORECAST.

ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS AS EARLY AS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ECMWF...GFS...AND NAM ARE IN GENERAL
SYNC WITH THE DEPTH AND TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL TAP A
MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE PACIFIC AS IT MOVES INTO ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME...THE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO HOLD
ITS GRIP ACROSS THE REGION. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THAT THE
ATOMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL SUPPORT A SLEET AND SNOW MIX GENERALLY
NORTH OF A JACKSONVILLE...MANSFIELD...COLUMBIA LINE. THE MODEL
TREND HAS BEEN COOLER WITH EACH RUN HOWEVER THE KEY WILL BE THE IN
THE 800 TO 700 LAYER WHERE THE PROFILE COMES CLOSEST TO GETTING
ABOVE FREEZING. EITHER WAY...AM CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT SLEET AND
SNOW IN THE FORECAST ALONG WITH THE HIGHER POPS FROM THE MEX AND
GRIDDED MOS GUIDANCE IN THE AREAS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. SOUTH OF
THAT LINE..IT APPEARS A RAIN AND SLEET MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE UNLESS
THE COLUMN COOLS A LITTLE MORE. HPC SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION GRAPHICS
TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING WINTER PRECIP THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER..BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
PRECIP TYPE...AMOUNTS ARE STILL A BIT TRICKY TO FORECAST.

A LOOK AT THE 1000-850...1000-700 AND 850...700 THICKNESSES
REVEALS THAT THEY ALL FALL WITHIN THE RANGE NEEDED TO SUPPORT
EITHER ALL SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY AM ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE JACKSONVILLE...MANSFIELD...COLUMBIA LINE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE EVENT COMES CLOSER AND THE MODELS CAN
GET A HANDLE ON THE DEPTH AND INTENSITY OF THE COLDER AIRMASS
WHICH WILL BE IN PLACE PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN GENERALLY UNDERCUT ON THU AND FRI DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF FROZEN PRECIP AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ON THE
GROUND. GUIDANCE HAS MADE SIGNIFCANT DROPS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS
TO BRING MAX TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 30S FOR THU FROM THE 50S IN THE EARLIER
WEEKEND RUNS.

[Mr. T]

Temp has droped a good 20 - 25 degrees also, Now temp at 48.

I was going to say, the current temperatures near 70 degrees sure do feel nice. I mean, it feels awesome out there.

However, that is all about to come to a crashing hault. We may not see 60 degrees again through the next 7 days... Some very healthy negative departures will be built up by week's end, with high temperatures 15 to 25 degrees below normal this week.

[sleetstorm]

I saw those very healthy severe thunderstorms on my cell phone. Wow, is all that I have to say! It is no wonder that some people are reporting pea-half dollar hail.