Tropical Storm Hermine Heavy Rain/Severe Threat

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1030 AM CDT

* AT 957 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR HEMPSTEAD... MOVING NORTHWEST AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WASHINGTON AND PINE ISLAND.

[Scott747]

Hope you are right about that Scott. One other thing ... I'm hard pressed to be believe that the center of this storm will be in Kerr County this evening as currently progged by NHC. Not with this current movement.

Yeah they have seemed stubborn with the track. I mentioned last night that it may have already started rounding the ridge leading to a more northerly motion with less of a western component.

[srainhoutx]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1007 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010

TXZ195>199-080300-
/O.EXA.KHGX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-100908T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BRAZOS-BURLESON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-WASHINGTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRENHAM...BRYAN...CALDWELL...
COLLEGE STATION...CONROE...LAKE SOMERVILLE...NAVASOTA...
THE WOODLANDS...WILLIS
1007 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS EXPANDED
THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
GRIMES...MONTGOMERY AND WASHINGTON.

* THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS
MOST OF THE WATCH AREA THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING CELLS ARE LIKELY.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO EXPERIENCE 5 TO 10 INCHES
WHERE TRAINING PRECIPITATION OCCURS.

[MRG93415]

Pretty wicked here in Downtown Houston....The wind is blowing really good and the rain is just a comin down...

[Scott747]

Here you go Porta.

Full paper of different setups not necessarily core rain events. Section F is probably of most interest to you.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/m ... t_test.htm

[djjordan]

Afraid that is just the beginning .... looks like Hermine is going to be a super soaker for most of us west of IH 45. Looks like I might be in line here in SGR for a training event that may be setting up for this afternoon. Definitely need to keep and eye on the radar and also be on the lookout for rotation and Tornadoes can spin up quickly and without warning.

[srainhoutx]

Hermine may well pass near/over Seguin with the current track. Further E than expected.

[Portastorm]

Here you go Porta.

Full paper of different setups not necessarily core rain events. Section F is probably of most interest to you.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/m ... t_test.htm

Excellent! Thank you Scott. Good reading for sure.

[Met Tech]

I was telling a few folks this last night ... these tropical systems almost NEVER behave as progged once they make landfall. There always seems to be a few surprises with the track. And here we are with HERMINE, who is definitely moving more northeast than predicted.

Yesterday it looked like areas just west of San Antonio would see drought-breaking rains. The constant east-of-track movement overnight seems to be eliminating that possibility entirely, with most areas (like where I'm from) seeing less than 0.75".

[srainhoutx]

I would not be surprised to see Flood Warnings issued a bit further E of the current FW.

[srainhoutx]

For our neighbors to the W...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1046 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010

TXZ204>207-219>224-071645-
ATASCOSA-BEXAR-COMAL-DEWITT-FRIO-GONZALES-GUADALUPE-KARNES-MEDINA-
WILSON-
1046 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010

...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IS MOVING INTO
ATASCOSA...BEXAR...COMAL...DEWITT...FRIO...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...
KARNES...MEDINA AND WILSON COUNTIES...

AT 1042 AM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE NEAR CAMPBELLTON...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN BEXAR...EASTERN MEDINA...GUADALUPE...NORTHEASTERN FRIO...
NORTHERN ATASCOSA...NORTHERN KARNES...SOUTHEASTERN COMAL...WESTERN
DEWITT...WESTERN GONZALES AND WILSON COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...LACKLAND AFB AND LEON VALLEY...SHOULD MONITOR
THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1052 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EASTERN BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1115 AM CDT

* AT 1049 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF
COLLEGE STATION...AND MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO BRYAN.

[srainhoutx]

From Nesdis...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/07/10 1557Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1545Z RUMINSKI
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...TROPICAL STORM HERMINE
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THERE HAS BEEN A MARKED WARMING OF CLOUD
TOP TEMPS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF HERMINE PAST 1-2 HRS INVOF
KGYB..KRWV AND KCLL. THIS LIKELY TRANSLATING TO A MODEST REDUCTION IN
RAIN RATES THIS AREA. HOWEVER..CD CLD TOP TEMPS AND STG ONSHORE FLOW CONT
WITH CNVTV BANDS OVER COASTAL AREAS FROM BRAZORIA THRU CALHOUN. RAPID
MVMNT OF INDIVUAL CELLS WITHIN BANDS IS HELPING TO MITIGATE RAINFALL
TOTALS SOMEWHAT BUT AREAS OF REPEAT ACTIVITY STILL RECEIVING EXCESSIVE
AMNTS. LATEST 3 HR AUTOMATED GOES RAINFALL ESTS THRU 1515Z SHOWING
GENERAL 2-3" TOTALS FROM CALHOUN TO MATAGORDA NWRD TO COLORADO.
.
CD CLD TOPS ALSO WRAPPING ARND CENTER OF HERMINE AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS N
OUT OF LIVE OAK. STLT ESTS ALSO SHOWING GENERAL 2-3" RAINFALL AMNTS PAST
3 HRS ENDING 1515Z ASCD WITH CENTER OF HERMINE.
.
GIVEN RECENT TRENDS..HEAVY RAIN/FF THREAT EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST THRU 19Z
IN AREA BOUNDED ROUGHLY BY CALHOUN..FAYETTE..GRIMES AND GALVESTON AS CNVTV
BANDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BASICALLY IN PLACE. ADL HEAVY/RAIN FF THREAT
AREA ALG NWRD TRACK OF CENTER OF HERMINE FROM ATASCOSA/KARNES INTO COMAL.

[srainhoutx]

TORNADO WARNING
TXC041-071630-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0022.100907T1604Z-100907T1630Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1104 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1130 AM CDT

* AT 1100 AM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A POSSIBLE TORNADO.
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR COLLEGE STATION... MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WIXON VALLEY...COLLEGE STATION AND BRYAN.

[Met Tech]

Nice increase in convection around the center in the past hour or so.

[djjordan]

That was one heavy rain band that moved through my neighborhood in SGR ....we could really be setting up for a messy afternoon and evening rush in the metro area.

[ticka1]

Any reports of flooding or bayous getting to bank-level? With Hermine being east of the forecast points and more over us - will this setup a training scenario rain event for us?

[srainhoutx]

According to Harris County Flood Gage maps, so far so good. Western areas are reporting some 2+ inch rainfalls, but as things contniue to slowly shift east, those totals will likely rise. I am concerned that we may well see training of storms from downtown and to the W. It appears that the eastern areas of the Houston Metro are beginning to get some storms as well. It will likely be a very messy afternoon commute at the least.

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1796
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TX COAST...ECNTRL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 646...

VALID 071641Z - 071815Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 646 CONTINUES.

THE TORNADO THREAT CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND
IN ECNTRL TX WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. WW 646 IS
SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 18Z. A NEW TORNADO WATCH APPEARS LIKELY TO BE
ISSUED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS ECNTRL TX FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF SAN
ANTONIO WITH A DISTINCT RAINBAND EAST OF THE CENTER EXTENDING FROM
PORT OCONNER ON THE TX COAST NNWWD TO NEAR WACO. THE LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR IS ESTIMATING 0-1 KM SHEAR
VALUES AROUND 30 KT RANGE ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THE 2.50 TO 2.75 INCH RANGE. THIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND MOISTURE
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE PERSISTENT ROTATING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE NWD ACROSS ECNTRL TX
SUGGESTING THE TORNADO THREAT MAY SPREAD NWD ALONG THE I-45 CORRIDOR
SOUTH OF DALLAS/FORT WORTH. THE TORNADO THREAT FURTHER SOUTH ALONG
THE MIDDLE TX COAST SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE AS ROTATING STORMS MOVE
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN VICTORIA AND HOUSTON.

..BROYLES.. 09/07/2010


ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1152 AM CDT TUE SEP 7 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 1145 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 35 MILES SOUTH OF
MARKHAM...OR 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PALACIOS...AND MOVING NORTH AT
45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO BAY CITY...AREAS WEST OF MATAGORDA...AND SOUTH TEXAS
NUCLEAR PLANT.