May 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 1:59 pm Lol that MCS in the gulf got highlighted by the NHC with a 10% chance to develop, likely not going to happen, but still interesting to see none the less
Now they tagged it. We now have Invest 90L in the Gulf.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 I still think its unlikely to develop, running out of time over water , still some dust and shear to inhibit it
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 4:00 pm Cpv17 I still think its unlikely to develop, running out of time over water , still some dust and shear to inhibit it
It won’t develop but I just thought it was worth mentioning.
Cpv17
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Some more rain chances on the way? Good to see this.

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don
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Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Sun May 22 2022

Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue May 24 2022 - 12Z Wed May 25 2022

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
KANSAS AND MISSOURI THROUGH EAST TEXAS...

...Middle Mississippi Valley through East Texas...

The upper trough axis near the Four Corners mentioned in the Day 2
discussion ejects east Tuesday. A sharp trough/possible upper low
forming over the central Plains by Tuesday night with a surface
low track over central Texas then up to the middle Miss Valley.
Large scale vertical motion and strong WAA at low-mid levels
continues/shifts east ahead of this low. PWATs of 1.5 to 1.75
should be focus over Oklahoma/eastern Kansas by Tuesday morning
and spread east across Missouri Tuesday where the anomaly is
around +2.5 standard deviations above the mean. Instability will
generally be limited to areas of low level convergence north of
the advancing warm front. Therefore the northern portion of the
Slight Risk area was retracted (also because of dry conditions in
northern Missouri/southern Iowa) in coordination with WFOs EAX and
DMX. MLCAPE will highest from central Texas through the Arklatex
with values ranging between 1,500-2,000 J/kg. Given the ample Gulf
moisture influx and potential presence of boundaries ahead of the
approaching cold front, the Slight Risk was expanded south/east a
little ways which now includes most of the Houston Metro (as
agreed upon by WFO HGX).
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don
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Models have shifted further south with the potent disturbance on Tuesday.Looks like a potent MCS is going to form in central Texas on Tuesday and move into SE Texas in the late morning/afternoon.Expect another MCS to develop with the front on Wednesday.

From HGX
The active weather pattern will continue through mid week as a
series of shortwaves rounding the base of an upper level trough over
the Great Plains and a cold front move through Southeast TX. To
start, a stronger shortwave moving eastward from the western TX
region will move overhead during the day Tuesday. Showers and
thunderstorms will be on the rise Tuesday morning as low level
moisture rapidly surges in from the Gulf with PWs peaking at 1.7 to
2.0 inches as the shortwave begins to pass through and storms
developing over South Central and Central TX track east and into
Southeast TX. With one hour rates of around 2.0 inches possible,
some ponding of water on roadways and low lying areas is possible.
Any minor flooding potential will depend on where the heavy rain
falls and how saturated the soil will be at that location. Something
to look out for these next few days. In addition, forecast soundings
show conditions becoming more unstable in the afternoon to evening
hours with SFC-6 km shear of 30-40 kts, mid level lapse rate a
little over 7 C/km, SFC/MU CAPE of 2,000-3,500 J/kg and DCAPE around
800-1,000 J/kg, which could allow for strong storms capable of
producing strong gusty winds and hail. SPC Day 3 Outlook has placed
a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms for Tuesday/Tuesday night
mainly for damaging winds and hail.

Chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue Tuesday night
into Wednesday as a cold front moves south southeast over Central TX
and pushes across Southeast TX during the day Wednesday. Strong
storms just ahead and along the front is possible and may again be
capable of producing strong winds, locally heavy rainfall, and hail.
Rain chances will cease Wednesday night as the front moves across
the coastal Gulf waters and slightly cooler/drier airmass moves in
behind it.
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Rip76
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What a nice rain cooled day here in Friendswood.
Cpv17
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The NAM and HRRR have the MCS weakening quite a bit as it approaches southeast Texas. We needed this to come in during the pm hours so the atmosphere could take advantage of all the energy. MCS that come through during the am hours often can be weakening. The only model that I see looks good for us is the FV3 model.
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Figures. I have a 9 AM flight on Tuesday.
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don
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0Z HRRR for Tuesday
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 11:37 am
DoctorMu wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 10:50 am Close to an inch of rain here. I'll take it!. Tuesday looks wet.
I was watching that line approach College Station last night and it literally almost fell apart right before it got there lol
That sounds like TWC future weather. :lol: We were blasted early as the line merged over us. Fell into a hole then had light rain on the back end. The lawn, trees, and shrubs are really green. For now.

70-80% chance Monday night - Wednesday...I'm pretty confident. Almost Sprinklers off while out of town confident. 8-) Almost.
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don
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Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with wind damage and large hail will be
possible on Tuesday across parts of the southern Plains and
Arklatex.

...Southern Plains/Arklatex...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the southern
High Plains on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
advance southward across the southern Plains. Ahead of the front, a
moist airmass will be in place, with surface dewpoints mostly in the
60s F. A complex of thunderstorms is forecast to move eastward
across parts of east Texas and the Texas Coastal Plain early in the
period. If this complex materializes, it will have an impact on
destabilization later in the day. Model forecasts suggest that
moderate instability will develop by afternoon to the west of this
complex from southwest Texas northeastward into the Texas Hill
Country. Surface-based thunderstorm development appears most likely
on the northern edge of the moderate instability across parts of
central and north Texas. Additional storms may form on the cold
front. In addition to moderate instability, forecast soundings in
the eastern parts of the Texas Hill Country have 0-6 km shear in the
30 to 40 knot range and show steep low to mid-level lapse rates.
This should be favorable for severe storms with wind-damage and hail
potential. If an MCS can become organized, then the severe threat
could persist into the early to mid evening.

..Broyles.. 05/22/2022
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tireman4
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00
FXUS64 KHGX 231132
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
632 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

MVFR ceilings will gradually scatter and lift to VFR around 16Z
this morning. Patchy fog will also begin to lift after sunrise.
Afterwards, VFR conditions will prevail and winds will become more
southeasterly. Rain chances increase around 06Z tonight, but lots
of uncertainty remains in the exact timing and intensity of this
next round of precip. A line of showers and thunderstorms will
approach our western counties around 06Z and quickly push through
by 12Z. Meanwhile another round of showers and storms will begin
around 12Z for our southwestern counties and push east throughout
the afternoon. Soon after, another front will approach the Brazos
Valley around 06Z Wednesday.

Lenninger

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 525 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022/...



.SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...

Monday starts out the work week as a transitional day between bouts
of rain. Today`s rain chances are minimal at around 10-15% while
daytime highs reach the mid to upper 80s. Late tonight and early
tomorrow morning, a sharp upper level trough will push through
Western Hill Country and reach the western edges of our CWA around
midnight. Rain chances will steadily increase throughout the morning
and afternoon on Tuesday.

The chance for strong to severe weather along with heavy rainfall on
Tuesday are all contingent on when convection initiates across Hill
Country. Hi-res models that initiate convection earlier show a
strong line of storms and a possible MCV reaching our western CWA
around midnight and quickly pushing through by mid morning. Hi-res
models that initiate convection later, still show this line of
storms reaching our western CWA around midnight, but not quite as
strong, and then a second round of storms south of Conroe that will
move slowly through our area and produce more rainfall. Should this
slower round push through our area from sunrise to mid-afternoon,
daytime heating will help destabilize the atmosphere and increase
the potential for strong to severe storms and increase the potential
for heavy rainfall. With forecast soundings showing PWs rising to
1.8 inches, along with deep saturation, and "skinny" CAPE, efficient
heavy rainfall is possible. Regarding the potential for severe
weather, forecast soundings also forecast SBCAPE to reach 1600-2000
J/kg by lunchtime and low-level helicity values to become greater
than 200 m2/s2. This instability and shear should be enough to
overcome the weak mid-level lapse rates and produce strong to severe
storms. The primary threat will be damaging winds, but with decent
low level helicity values, a few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled
out either. Regarding rainfall amounts, 1-3 inches of rain is
expected with localized higher amounts possible.

This quick and dynamic upper level trough will push out towards
Arkansas by dinner time on Tuesday and rain chances for the southern
half of our CWA will taper off just in time for the next front to
arrive. Therefore, rain chances will steadily increase for the
northern half of our forecast area as the front reaches the Brazos
Valley around sunset on Tuesday.

Lenninger


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...
The cold front continues to drop southward Wednesday morning and
should have an impressive band of thunderstorms moving through the
northern CWA and by around noon pushing down into the central
areas/Metro and off the coast by mid/late afternoon. The upper
trough driving this is a bit unusual in depth for this time of
year (NAEFS return interval of 5 years) but by the time it is
moving into SETX not quite so abnormal. The soundings show a
CAPE rich environment Wednesday with a more linear wind profile
and abundant moisture (PW 1.8-2.0"). So expecting a fairly
efficient rainmaker as the line comes through. Timing will be
important...a little faster with the passage less CAPE a little
later more CAPE. Rain rates of at least 2"/hour should be easily
within reach and could get into the 3-4" range. So other than it
will rain and could be heavy at times as we get closer in time
confidence will increase. The front should push off the coast and
rain threat should decrease quickly during the overnight hours.

Dry air blankets the region Thursday as Pacific high pressure
builds into the region. So drier but not all that much cooler this
time of year. Thursday afternoon through Friday night will be
pleasant before the onshore flow strengthens during the day
Saturday and the moisture returns. Temperatures warm up steadily
and by Saturday afternoon 88-92 will be commonplace. Warmer still
on Sunday


.MARINE...
Very short term SCEC for the waters immediately south of Galveston
Bay but by mid morning winds should diminish. Warm front moves
back north and winds veer from the NE this morning to E by mid
afternoon and SE tonight. With that will come an increase in winds
tonight and into Tuesday. Will be keeping a close eye on the
development and track of storms early Tuesday morning as they may
have impacts for the Upper Texas Coastal Waters (if some of the
models are correct). SCEC/SCA conditions should be developing
tonight and probably continue until the front arrives late
Wednesday. With the front will come strong thunderstorms for the
marine area and restricted visibilities in heavy rain. The
offshore flow in the wake of the front may only increase up into
the SCEC for a brief period. Then a light wind regime takes hold
as high pressure slides through and out into the Gulf. The onshore
flow will be strengthening late Saturday and by late Sunday will
probably be back into SCA conditions.

Tide levels coming down today and shouldn`t be an issue but the
rip currents will be slower to weaken. By late afternoon the
Freeport to High Island should be improving. The improving
conditions will be short lived as by Tuesday morning the increased
flow and lengthening periods will be leading to an increase in rip
current risk probably through Wednesday.

45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 85 71 83 71 78 / 10 60 60 60 80
Houston (IAH) 87 73 84 74 84 / 10 40 80 50 80
Galveston (GLS) 85 78 86 79 85 / 20 30 80 30 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Galveston
Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 8 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM.


&&

$$
Cpv17
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Both the FV3 and WRF mesoscale models are looking quite interesting. HRRR isn’t really onboard yet. 18z HRRR should be an interesting run this afternoon.
davidiowx
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 11:42 am Both the FV3 and WRF mesoscale models are looking quite interesting. HRRR isn’t really onboard yet. 18z HRRR should be an interesting run this afternoon.
Pretty impressive rain totals to the West and SW of Houston on those runs!
Stratton20
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Next couple of days could be wet, also something interesting today, the latest GFS run tries to spin up some tropical mischief in the BOC at hour 192, it is not alone, the Euro also shows maybe something trying to get going at hour 240, again its a long range forecast, but both models showing around the 31-3rd time frame to potentially watch, although ensemble support from the EPS and GEFS isnt strong, it also isnt non existent either fwiw, just enough support to at least watch the next 5-7 days
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captainbarbossa19
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HRRR is not doing a great job initializing precip today. 12z showed nothing south of SA right now, but radar tells a different story. 18z is trying to catch up but is still undershowing precip.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 232100
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
400 PM CDT Mon May 23 2022

.SHORT TERM [Through Tuesday Night]...
Upper level disturbance near the Big Bend region will make its way
ewd toward the area tonight. Shra/tstms have already initiated out
to our west and should begin moving into wester parts of the area
heading into the overnight hours. There is some concern for some
strong tstms should the shortwave eventually take on a negative
tilt and/or a surface wave develop as this system moves closer.
Some of the HREF members show such a scenario and indicate the
possibility of a linear band of convection with some embedded
bowing segments in the 4am-noon timeframe. If or where this occurs
is not clear cut, but trends the past few days seem to favor the
southern parts of the CWA. So...be on the lookout for some
25-45mph gusts late tonight and in the morning near any of the
stronger cells. Some localized heavy downpours a possibility, but
the system looks progressive enough where we`re not anticipating
widespread flash flood issues.

Will probably see precip gradually taper off from sw to ne during
the afternoon hours depending how the mesoscale plays out.

Upper trof digging southward across the Rockies will make its way
into the southern Plains and West Texas late Tuesday. Expect
convection to develop in advance of its associated cold front
which should begin moving into the area late Tue night into Wed.
More on that below. 47

&&

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Monday]...
Come Wednesday morning, a potent upper trough looks to be placed
squarely over the Great Plains, with a cold front right on our
doorstep. Suffice to say, it seems quite obvious that the threat for
showers and storms will continue through the day Wednesday, while
tailing off Wednesday night.

I don`t want to get too in the weeds since this is the long term,
and severe threats can always be enhanced or derailed by mesoscale
features that can`t quite be fleshed out at this range, but the
broader environment would definitely support some stronger storm
potential. Something that stands out at me is the timing of the
front pushing across the forecast area through the day - and though
continuing clouds and rain will hamper the building of daytime
instability somewhat, we are fully deep enough into the spring that
even cloudy days can see sufficient instability build.
Additionally, some of the guidance has a shortwave trough rounding
the base of the broader upper low, and assuming that times well with
the front in the afternoon, we`ll be in a spot where we`re cobbling
together ingredients for severe storms. Given that it is late May
and mid-level lapse rates are generally not favorable, large hail is
maybe the one threat we can more or less scratch off the list.
Damaging wind gusts look like a key hazard, and given the turning in
the low level winds, likely an increased probability for at least
brief tornadoes. This risk will maximize along/ahead of the front on
Wednesday, and the area sketched out in SPC`s slight risk area looks
like a pretty good target area.

Meanwhile, beyond these traditional convective hazards, we`ll need
to be keeping an eye on any threat posed by heavy rainfall as well.
In our favor, we have been fairly dry of late, so that gives us some
room to work with. However, atmospheric profiles that before helped
me rule out large hail also tend to be very efficient rainmakers,
and around here, rain rates are king when it comes to flash
flooding. A strong enough storm that hangs out over a vulnerable
spot for just long enough can cause problems even without eye-
popping storm totals. Another mitigating factor is that this system
looks fairly progressive, keeping the period of biggest threat
pretty limited to Wednesday. This also helps put a bit of a lid on
any potential ceiling for how widespread any flooding issues may be,
but we`ll have to continue to evaluate where isolated/localized
concerns may emerge. While doing that, I`ll keep my fingers crossed
that everything will move through quickly enough to eliminate the
threat altogether. But I`ve also been here long enough to know that
crossed fingers aren`t enough.

Once things clear out, look for the rest of the week to be about
ridging building into Texas from the Mexican interior. And, as one
might expect from that scenario, the main story will be rising
temperatures. NBM deterministic temps get pretty high, but I`m a
little skeptical right now. We`ve been verifying much lower than
these deterministic values of late, and despite the flurry of record
warmth, still generally below the median and closer to the 25th
percentile. Looking at the distribution, the deterministic values
are drifting up towards the 90th percentile of the distribution by
the weekend, which seems a bit aggressive. Because of this, I`ve
toned things down a bit. All in all, it paints the picture of
another stretch of warmer than average conditions, though not quite
as hot as the NBM might suggest. If there are signs that the
expected ridge will come in stronger than shown in the guidance
right now, we may need to nudge those temps up.

Luchs

&&

.MARINE...
SE/S flow and seas will increase ahead of an upper level
disturbance and associated showers and thunderstorms that will be
moving across the area late tonight and Tuesday. Strong gusty
winds are likely as the storms move west to east across the area.
Have issued a Small Craft Advisory beginning later tonight. Onshore
winds will again increase late Tuesday in advance of a cold front
that will move into the area Wednesday. Showers and storms are
likely with this system as well. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 70 81 66 77 60 / 70 70 90 80 30
Houston (IAH) 72 83 73 80 63 / 80 80 60 80 50
Galveston (GLS) 76 83 79 84 72 / 80 80 50 70 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for the
following zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Tuesday
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 PM CDT this evening
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from midnight CDT tonight
through Tuesday morning for the following zones: Galveston
Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CDT Tuesday
for the following zones: Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport
TX from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION from 9 PM this evening to
midnight CDT tonight for the following zones: Coastal
waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters
from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$
Stratton20
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Tornado chasers out near Morton in West Texas, wow, that is absolutely terrifying ☠️😨😱😱
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DoctorMu
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Potentially upper 50s Wednesday night...and I'm missing it. lol
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