March 2010- In Like A Lamb, Out Like A Lion?

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Ptarmigan
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This model is not predicting any freezing temperatures for next week. Still bears watching.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=kiah
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06Z GFS is a tad colder for next Monday but still just cold rain with temps in the upper 40s to low 50s:

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srainhoutx
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Well the 12Z ECMWF paints an interesting picture for parts of TX. Impressive low near Galveston and on to New Orleans and yet another dump of cold air.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Looks like strong warm air advection ahead of that ECMWF low on Monday. So more cold rain. The airmass over Texas looks significantly warmer than with the last event. GFS doesn't even indicate any snow south of the Red River with it. May be more interesting east of Texas (as a storm). Mostly rain/thunderstorms, though. The way the 168hr Euro looks, there may be several systems phasing along the East Coast.

Here's a 12Z GFS meteogram. Mid to upper 40s and rain. Temps look reasonable. Not too exciting.

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Last edited by wxman57 on Wed Feb 24, 2010 12:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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And a 12z GFS extended outlook meteogram. More miserable cold for the 2nd week of March. No temperature above 65F for the next 2 weeks.

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srainhoutx
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The HPC Final Extended will raise an eyebrow...

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
152 PM EST WED FEB 24 2010

VALID 12Z SAT FEB 27 2010 - 12Z WED MAR 03 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER THREAT FOR THE SW/SRN/SE US AND
POSSIBLY MID-ATLC NEXT WEEK...


THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RETROGRADING POSITIVE MID-UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY FROM EASTERN INTO W-CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW AN AMBIENT CLOSED NORTHEAST VORTEX TO EXIT STAGE
RIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...YET TRAP SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY BACK
ACROSS THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK. REPERCUSSIONS ARE MANY FOR ITS
INTERACTION WITH A NEARLY CLOSED CYCLONE ALOFT/STRONG SHORTWAVE
WHICH SPLITS OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH IN A POTENT SRN
STREAM TO NEAR 4 CORNERS BY SUN. THIS ENERGETIC FLOW/SYSTEM THEN
PROGRESSES BODILY/STEADILY EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH QUESTION MARKS WITH RESPECT TO WHETHER OR NOT
DIGGING MIDWEST NRN STREAM ENERGY IS STRONG ENOUGH TO LURE THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM NORTHWARD OR MERGE WITH IT...AND IF SO HOW FAR
NORTH THE COMBINED SYSTEM COULD MOVE. WITH A TWO DAY TREND
SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH NOTED AMONGST THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...FELT THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION WAS TO GO IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING RATHER THAN THE NORTHERN SIDE
CONSIDERING CONTINUITY. THIS SOLUTION ADVERTISES A SNOWSTORM
THREAT ACROSS THE SRN ROCKY STATES SUN OUT ACROSS THE SRN THEN
SERN US/LOWER MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK AS A
DECENT CLUSTER OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CLOSE OFF A VORTEX AT 500
HPA WITH HEIGHTS BELOW 5400 METERS INTO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...A
CLUSTER OF GEFS/CANADIAN MEMBERS ARE LOCATED MORE NORTHWARD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. NEEDLESS TO SAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS CONCERNING THESE IMPORTANT SMALLER SCALE DETAILS AND
INTERACTIONS OF THIS FORECAST. THE FINAL HPC SURFACE
FRONTS/PRESSURE AND 500 MB PROGS MAINTAIN CLOSE HPC CONTINUITY AS
PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM 50-50 BLEND OF SIMILAR 00 UTC
GFS/ECMWF...ALBEIT ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE SE US COAST
INTO NEXT MIDWEEK BASED ON POTENTIAL BEST SHOWN BY ECMWF ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERING. DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES WITH EMBEDDED SYSTEM
DETAILS...LARGER SCALE FLOW DEPICTION FROM THE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES ARE ACTUALLY QUITE SIMILAR...WITH BELOW NORMAL FORECAST
SPREAD LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. THIS
INCLUDES AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM FLOW POTENTIAL...LEAD SRN STREAM
ENERGY OUT FROM SW US THROUGH THE US SRN TIER/GULF OF MEX...AND
SUBSEQUENT RELOADING OF AMPLIFIED ERN PACIFIC TROUGH ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RENEWED US W COAST ORGANIZED PCPN POTENTIAL AGAIN BY
DAYS 6/7. ACCORDINGLY...THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEMS HAVE A HIGHER
THAN NORMAL CHANCE OF DEVELOPING IN A VEIN SIMILAR TO
GUIDANCE...EVEN THOUGH THE FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WEATHER
IS MORE UNCERTAIN.

WE SEE MINIMAL COMPELLING REASON TO ALTER HPC CONTINUITY
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER CONSIDERATION OF 12 UTC MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. OVERALL...12 UTC GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUPPORT A
SIMILAR LARGER SCALE PATTERN DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...BUT FORECAST SPREAD DID INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY DAYS
6/7 WITH SYSTEM DEEPENING/TRACK OUT FROM THE SRN/SERN US/GULF OF
MEX TO THE WRN ATLANTIC. THE 12 UTC GFS/UKMET SEEM OUTLIERS WITH A
FAR SOUTHWARD SUPPRESSED OFFSHORE TRACK NOT SUPPORTED BY
CONTINUITY...12 UTC GFS ENSEMBLES...12 UTC CANADIAN...OR
ESPECIALLY THE 12 UTC ECMWF THAT STILL SUPPORTS DEEP COASTAL STORM
POTENTIAL.


ROTH/SCHICHTEL/RUBIN-OSTER
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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wxman57
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I think that last underlined part about the GFS/UKMET being outliers refers to the projected path off the East U.S. Coast. Maybe another East Coast snow storm? The GFS does tend to take such systems out to sea too much.
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wxman57 wrote:I think that last underlined part about the GFS/UKMET being outliers refers to the projected path off the East U.S. Coast. Maybe another East Coast snow storm? The GFS does tend to take such systems out to sea too much.

I agree. The first part of the text was from this morning. One thing we will have in our favor is more Pacific RECON. The GFS will start to lock in on a sensible solution. The G-IV has been getting a work out this winter season...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 241745
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1245 PM EST WED 24 FEBRUARY 2010
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z FEBRUARY 2010
WSPOD NUMBER.....09-086

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. A61/ ACK/ 25/1300Z
B. AFXXX 09WSA TRACK61
C. 25/0900Z
D. DROPS EVERY 20 MINUTES OVER WATER
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 25/1500Z
F. COUNTERCLOCKWISE

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49
A. P54/ 45.40N 166.0W/ 26/1200Z
B. NOAA9 38WSC TRACK54
C. 26/0800Z
D. 17 DROPS ON TRACK
E. 39,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 26/1800Z

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49
A. P56/ 44.9N 150.9W/ 27/1200Z
JWP
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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SPC take on the storm:

" SUN FEB 28/...THE SRN EXTENT OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE WRN STATES ON DAY 3 IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SRN
PLAINS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SUPPORT TSTMS
WITH SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN TX."
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wxman57
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By the way, you might change the title of this thread to "March First Storm - In Like a Cold, Wet Lamb". (I think I'm sounding like Ed now) ;-)

Definitely nothing but cold rain here for Monday. Even the Dallas area is questionable for snow. They're sort of where we were with the event here earlier this week - just borderline.

Here's a meteogram off the latest GFS. Temps in the mid 40s and light rain Monday. It's interesting that in February of 2009 we had 21 days with highs over 70 degrees and 3 days over 80 degrees. In 2010, we've had only a single day with a high over 70 degrees (last Sunday) and only 9 days with highs over 60 degrees! Mean temperature is 6.8F below normal for this month, compared to 5.8F above normal last February. I'll take last February's temps!

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The $64,000.00 question is when will the blocking pattern realx! I am so ready for Spring.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830 AM EST THU FEB 25 2010

VALID 12Z MON MAR 01 2010 - 12Z THU MAR 04 2010


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED THE 00Z/25 ECMWF TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND
PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3-6 ACROSS THE NATION...WITH A MODEST
INCORPORATION OF THE ECENS MEAN DAY 7 TO MITIGATE THE UNCERTAINTY
IN SYNOPTIC DETAILS INHERENT TO THAT TIME RANGE. FOR THE SOUTH
AND EAST...THE MAJOR CONCERN IS THE WAVE THE MODELS TRACK ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS
WINTER SEASON HAS SEEN WAVE AFTER WAVE CROSS THE GULF OR DEEP
SOUTH...AND THEN TURN EITHER SUBTLY OR SHARPLY UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.
IN MOST CASES...THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHY ABOUT LIFTING THESE SYSTEMS FAR ENOUGH NORTH SEVERAL DAYS
OUT...WITH AN INEVITABLE CREEP NORTHWARD TOWARD CAPE HATTERAS WITH
TIME. THE SNOWFALL OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST A COUPLE WEEKS AGO
IS AN EXAMPLE OF SUCH A CASE...WITH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE NOT
GIVING THE REGION ITS DUE UNTIL A MERE 36 HOURS FROM IMPACT. TOOK
THE CUE FOR THIS FORECAST...AND USED THE DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF...WHICH TRACKED CLOSEST TO THE COAST DAY 6. THIS MODEL HAS
THE SUPPORT OF THE GEM GLOBAL...AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN CENTRES. THE GFS AND ITS
ATTENDANT ENSEMBLE PACKAGE LOOKED FLAT BASED ON THE EXPERIENCE OF
THIS SEASON. THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT THE SPLITTING
POINT OF WAVES COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC...WITH A COUPLE INTENSE
COLD MARITIME POLAR VORTICES SLATED FOR THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A CONTINUAL FEED OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR...THIS
REGIONS LOT IN LIFE IN THE TENACIOUS BLOCKING REGIME OF THE WINTER
OF 09-10.


CISCO
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Interesting article from the 'SciGuy' on chron.com today...

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/ ... ousto.html
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx wrote:Interesting article from the 'SciGuy' on chron.com today...

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/ ... ousto.html
As a former journalist but lifelong weather enthusiast, I think Berger does a real nice job. In fact, I do not recall reading anyone else who captures so well the essence of meteorology but writes for a general audience. I wish we had one of those in Austin!
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wxman57
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It's so quiet in here, I thought I'd post something interesting I see in the 12Z GFS run. Too bad March 10th isn't Valentine's Day!

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wxman57 wrote:It's so quiet in here, I thought I'd post something interesting I see in the 12Z GFS run. Too bad March 10th isn't Valentine's Day!

Image
No idea what that is telling us........
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wxman57
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:
wxman57 wrote:It's so quiet in here, I thought I'd post something interesting I see in the 12Z GFS run. Too bad March 10th isn't Valentine's Day!

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/heart.gif

Gotta post the medium or small image. If it wasn't your cableone account, but the ncep page, substituting an "m" or "s" for the letter "l" in the URL would do the trick.
I've always liked big images, Ed. I actually just did a screen capture of a blown-up "l" image. It's not actually MY Cableone account, I "borrow" it from a friend who doesn't use her web page capabilities (she knows). ;-)

I'll endeavor to post somewhat smaller images for the monitor size-challenged out there.
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wxman57
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snowman65 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:It's so quiet in here, I thought I'd post something interesting I see in the 12Z GFS run. Too bad March 10th isn't Valentine's Day!

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/heart.gif
No idea what that is telling us........
Look again...

You may need to refresh the page to get the updated image.

Oh, and a tip for those of you replying to posts that have embedded images using "quote". If you just remove the image tags [img]and[/img] in the picture links, that'll leave the link to the picture without re-posting the (sometimes big) picture, as I did above. That will help to de-clutter the thread a bit. Just a suggestion.
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This is interesting...

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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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wxman57
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srainhoutx wrote:This is interesting...

http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee29 ... st_wbg.gif
I assume you mean the 2nd East Coast storm? Looks like they're not buying the GFS solution of moving it out to sea very quickly. More snow for the east, cold rain for the Gulf Coast. I have my doubts that air along the coast north of the low will be cold enough for snow. 18Z GFS has an inch of snow centered on Baton Rouge east along the MS and AL coasts. 12Z had it in the FL Panhandle. However, if you look at the soundings for every 3 hours, you see a quite warm lower few thousand feet that wouldn't support snow accumulations.
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I say bring on more cold temperatures and wintry precip. until the first day of spring, then I will gladly welcome wamer temperatures in the seventies, eighties, and ninties. ;)
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