March 2010- In Like A Lamb, Out Like A Lion?

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srainhoutx
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The $64,000.00 question is when will the blocking pattern realx! I am so ready for Spring.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830 AM EST THU FEB 25 2010

VALID 12Z MON MAR 01 2010 - 12Z THU MAR 04 2010


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED THE 00Z/25 ECMWF TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND
PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3-6 ACROSS THE NATION...WITH A MODEST
INCORPORATION OF THE ECENS MEAN DAY 7 TO MITIGATE THE UNCERTAINTY
IN SYNOPTIC DETAILS INHERENT TO THAT TIME RANGE. FOR THE SOUTH
AND EAST...THE MAJOR CONCERN IS THE WAVE THE MODELS TRACK ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS
WINTER SEASON HAS SEEN WAVE AFTER WAVE CROSS THE GULF OR DEEP
SOUTH...AND THEN TURN EITHER SUBTLY OR SHARPLY UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.
IN MOST CASES...THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHY ABOUT LIFTING THESE SYSTEMS FAR ENOUGH NORTH SEVERAL DAYS
OUT...WITH AN INEVITABLE CREEP NORTHWARD TOWARD CAPE HATTERAS WITH
TIME. THE SNOWFALL OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST A COUPLE WEEKS AGO
IS AN EXAMPLE OF SUCH A CASE...WITH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE NOT
GIVING THE REGION ITS DUE UNTIL A MERE 36 HOURS FROM IMPACT. TOOK
THE CUE FOR THIS FORECAST...AND USED THE DETERMINISTIC
ECMWF...WHICH TRACKED CLOSEST TO THE COAST DAY 6. THIS MODEL HAS
THE SUPPORT OF THE GEM GLOBAL...AS WELL AS THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FROM BOTH THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN CENTRES. THE GFS AND ITS
ATTENDANT ENSEMBLE PACKAGE LOOKED FLAT BASED ON THE EXPERIENCE OF
THIS SEASON. THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT THE SPLITTING
POINT OF WAVES COMING IN FROM THE PACIFIC...WITH A COUPLE INTENSE
COLD MARITIME POLAR VORTICES SLATED FOR THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A CONTINUAL FEED OF CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR...THIS
REGIONS LOT IN LIFE IN THE TENACIOUS BLOCKING REGIME OF THE WINTER
OF 09-10.


CISCO
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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Interesting article from the 'SciGuy' on chron.com today...

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/ ... ousto.html
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx wrote:Interesting article from the 'SciGuy' on chron.com today...

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/ ... ousto.html
As a former journalist but lifelong weather enthusiast, I think Berger does a real nice job. In fact, I do not recall reading anyone else who captures so well the essence of meteorology but writes for a general audience. I wish we had one of those in Austin!
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wxman57
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It's so quiet in here, I thought I'd post something interesting I see in the 12Z GFS run. Too bad March 10th isn't Valentine's Day!

Image
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snowman65
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wxman57 wrote:It's so quiet in here, I thought I'd post something interesting I see in the 12Z GFS run. Too bad March 10th isn't Valentine's Day!

Image
No idea what that is telling us........
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wxman57
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:
wxman57 wrote:It's so quiet in here, I thought I'd post something interesting I see in the 12Z GFS run. Too bad March 10th isn't Valentine's Day!

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/heart.gif

Gotta post the medium or small image. If it wasn't your cableone account, but the ncep page, substituting an "m" or "s" for the letter "l" in the URL would do the trick.
I've always liked big images, Ed. I actually just did a screen capture of a blown-up "l" image. It's not actually MY Cableone account, I "borrow" it from a friend who doesn't use her web page capabilities (she knows). ;-)

I'll endeavor to post somewhat smaller images for the monitor size-challenged out there.
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wxman57
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snowman65 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:It's so quiet in here, I thought I'd post something interesting I see in the 12Z GFS run. Too bad March 10th isn't Valentine's Day!

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/heart.gif
No idea what that is telling us........
Look again...

You may need to refresh the page to get the updated image.

Oh, and a tip for those of you replying to posts that have embedded images using "quote". If you just remove the image tags [img]and[/img] in the picture links, that'll leave the link to the picture without re-posting the (sometimes big) picture, as I did above. That will help to de-clutter the thread a bit. Just a suggestion.
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srainhoutx
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This is interesting...

Image
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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wxman57
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srainhoutx wrote:This is interesting...

http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee29 ... st_wbg.gif
I assume you mean the 2nd East Coast storm? Looks like they're not buying the GFS solution of moving it out to sea very quickly. More snow for the east, cold rain for the Gulf Coast. I have my doubts that air along the coast north of the low will be cold enough for snow. 18Z GFS has an inch of snow centered on Baton Rouge east along the MS and AL coasts. 12Z had it in the FL Panhandle. However, if you look at the soundings for every 3 hours, you see a quite warm lower few thousand feet that wouldn't support snow accumulations.
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I say bring on more cold temperatures and wintry precip. until the first day of spring, then I will gladly welcome wamer temperatures in the seventies, eighties, and ninties. ;)
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srainhoutx
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Appears yet another Major Winter Storm to our E. Our threat locally would be from Coastal Flooding and some heavy rainfall (1-2 inch amounts). SPC mentions elevated T Storms, but nothing severe at this time...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
733 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2010

VALID 12Z TUE MAR 02 2010 - 12Z FRI MAR 05 2010

...WINTER CONTINUES WITH ANOTHER SNOW THREAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST AND LOWER MID ALANTIC NEXT WEEK WITH AN ADDITIONAL
WIDESPREAD SNOW THREAT FROM THE SIERRAS INTO THE ROCKIES AND
REACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE NEXT WEEK...

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A FAIRLY ENERGETIC PATTERN WITH
BUNDLES OF ERN PAC TROF ENERGY SEPARATING NEAR THE WEST COAST AS
THEY RUN INTO A PERSISTENT MEAN RIDGE OVER CANADA AND W-CNTRL
CONUS. THE LEADING SRN STREAM SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS FCST TO
TRAVEL FROM THE SRN PLAINS/WRN GULF COAST TO JUST OFF THE EAST
COAST IN THE MON-WED TIME FRAME. WHILE THERE IS SOME SPREAD WITH
THIS FEATURE... THE 00Z GFS AND GEFS MEAN ARE ON THE PROGRESSIVE
SIDE OF THE SPECTRUM WITH THE ECMWF/CMC/UKMET/NOGAPS AND 12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN ALL HOLDING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE COAST BY LATE
DAY 5 WED. THIS SLOWER/WRN CLUSTER IS LIKELY BEST IN LIGHT OF THE
TENDENCY THIS SEASON FOR MODELS TO VERIFY TOO FAR SEWD SEVERAL
DAYS IN ADVANCE. ONE SIGNIFICANT WILD CARD IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM IS A BUNDLE OF ENERGY EXPECTED TO TRACK SEWD FROM THE
UPR MS VALLEY MON ONWARD. THUS FAR GUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN
EXTREMELY AGREEABLE AMONG EACH OTHER AND COMPARED TO SUCCESSIVE
RUNS... BUT AT THE VERY LEAST THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE OFFERS
MORE SUPPORT FOR THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THIS FEATURE VERSUS THE
SLOW/DEEP OUTLIER SOLN OF THE 00Z GFS. MEANWHILE THE GFS/GEFS
MEAN MAY ALSO BE A LITTLE TOO FAST IN BRINGING THE NEXT ERN PAC
TROF TO THE WEST COAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS/ECMWF ACHIEVE SIMILAR TIMING BY DAY 6 THU THOUGH... AND BY DAY
7 FRI THERE IS MODERATE AGREEMENT UPON A WAVE REACHING THE SRN
PLAINS. FINALLY THE 00Z GFS IS ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE SOLN
ENVELOPE WITH THE CORE OF MID LVL ENERGY AND ASSOC SFC LOW NEARING
THE WEST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE
THE DAY 7 TROF ALOFT MAY BE A LITTLE MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE 00Z
ECMWF. OVERALL BETTER COMPARISON TO THE FULL RANGE OF GUIDANCE
FAVORS USE OF A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z ECMWFAND GFS AS THE
STARTING POINT FOR THE DAYS 3-7 FCST AN INCREASING PERCENTAGE OF
00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN CONCURRED BY USE OF GFS/EC LAGGED AVERAGE
FORECASTS.

THE SHORTWAVE WITH A STRONG NEG HT ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS TX AND
THE GULF COAST WILL INDUCE HVY RAINS ALONG THE GULF COAST MON AND
TUES AND EWD ACROSS FL INTO GA AND SC. DEEP TROF WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL HTS/MID/LOW LEVEL TEMPS APPEAR LIKELY TO BRING SNOW ACROSS
THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD ACROSS NRN AL/GA/SRN AND ERN TN.
AS THE TROF TAKES A MORE NEG TILTED ORIENTATION HEAVIER SNOW FALL
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS OF SC/NC/SWRN VA AND SRN WV. HVY
COASTAL RAINS AND ONSHORE GALE FORCE WINDS WITH HIGH SURF AND
BEACH EROSION/COASTAL FLOODING THREAT CAN BE EXPECTED TUES INTO
THURSDAY ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD. AS THE MOVES UP EWD
ALONG THE COAST LOW DEEPENS LOWERING 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES
AND H850 TEMPS IMPLY A SIG SNOW VERY POSSIBLY HVY SNOW THREAT FROM
THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS INTO THE PIEDMONT AND NEWD INTO THE
LOWER VA PIEDMONT/TIDEWATER AREAS OF VA AND POSSIBLY LOWER SRN MD
AND LOWER DELMARVA. STRONG N-NE WINDS WILL EXTEND WELL FROM THE
MID ATLC REGION NWD ALONG THE NEW ENG COAST. DETAILS OF PCPN
TYPE/AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS THE EVENT
CLOSES TO WITHIN A 72 HR OR LESS TIMEFRAME.

WESTWARD...NEXT MID LEVEL COLD PAC TROF AND FRONT WILL COME INTO
THE PAC NORTHWEST AND
CA COAST TUES BRINGING MDT/HVY RAINS WITH SNOW AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE PCPN WILL EXTEND WELL INLAND BY WED AND THURS INTO
ROCKIES MAINLY AS SNOW FROM MT SWD TO NRN AZ AND NM. AS THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS MID TO LATE WEEK
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE GLFMEX INFLOW. A SIGNIFICANT SNOW
THREAT EWD FROM THE CO PLAINS INTO KS AND MO.
RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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snowman65
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How's this for severe? It was on our local current readings......check out that wind!!!!...What category would that be....LOL


Mostly Cloudy and 51.0 F (10.6 C)
Wind: 1014.9
Dewpoint: 48 F (9 C)
Pressure: Mostly Cloudy
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srainhoutx
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Goodness, will the crazy pattern ever break? This snipet is from the Austin/San Antonio morning AFD regarding Monday afternoon/evening...
A 500MB LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE SUN AND PULL A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SUN
AFTERNOON...REACH THEIR HIGHEST LEVEL SUN NIGHT...AND DECREASE
AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY MON. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM
ARE HINTING AT SOME SNOW IN THE NORTH TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT
MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AT THIS TIME I THINK ANY SNOW WILL BE
FARTHER NORTH THAN OUR CWA.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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SPC continues to think very low risk for severe weather with this system; rain maker for us.

"BOTH THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP CONVECTION NEWD ALONG THE COAST
INTO SE TX AND SRN LA BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE EXIT
REGION OF A PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE LOCATED VERY NEAR THE
UPPER TX AND LA COASTS...THE MOIST AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET AND
RESULTANT INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. THIS WOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE THREAT. "
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SPC still thinking severe weather threat (if it exists at all) will stay south and/or east of SE TX.

"AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL OPEN AND MOVE EWD INTO
THE ARKLATEX MONDAY. SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ON THE MID TO UPPER TX COASTAL
PLAIN MONDAY MORNING NEAR A WARM FRONT ON THE WRN EDGE OF A
LOW-LEVEL JET. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
ELEVATED AND SHOULD NOT POSE A SEVERE THREAT MAINLY DUE TO WEAK
INSTABILITY."


HPC still expecting possible heavy rains.
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wxman57
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No "lions" seen in the GFS temperature/precip predictions for the next 15 days, either. And now no high over 70 degrees.

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Except for the rain Monday (a.m. rush hour may be a mess) I guess we need to watch out for the end of March now...
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wxdata wrote:Except for the rain Monday (a.m. rush hour may be a mess) I guess we need to watch out for the end of March now...
What is at the END of March?
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ticka1 wrote:
wxdata wrote:Except for the rain Monday (a.m. rush hour may be a mess) I guess we need to watch out for the end of March now...
What is at the END of March?
April First. (joke)

The thread was based on the old saying. March- in like a lion out like a lamb *or* in like a lamb, out like a lion.
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Can any of you believe that tomorrow is the first day of March? What can everyone on this weather forum anticipate weatherwise during next month which is only over an hour away? Are we finished with Arctic and Polar surges, freezes, and wintry precipitation, or should I wait until the beginning of April to finally be done with all of those things to be able to relish the warm Spring sun? By the way, I know that Ed Mahmoud's Birthday is tomorrow, well, mine is this Friday and it very much looks like it is going to be a cool to mild day, not that I am complaining, though, mind you. If any you might know if the 5th of March has had any wintry precipitation, sleetstorms or snowstorms on it from the year 1984 to now? Because my parents have divulged me numerous times in the past that March 5th, which is the day that I was born, has been very icy and not solely with freezing temperatures but with literal snow and sleet.
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