March 2010- In Like A Lamb, Out Like A Lion?

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March 2010- In Like A Lamb, Out Like A Lion?

Post by wxdata » Tue Feb 23, 2010 7:23 pm

ECMWF still forecast a rather potent upper system crossing Texas around March 1

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Re: March 1 Storm- In Like A Lion?

Post by ticka1 » Tue Feb 23, 2010 7:31 pm

Severe weather this time? Sorry still can't read the maps as you posted above Dan....

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Re: March 1 Storm- In Like A Lion?

Post by wxdata » Tue Feb 23, 2010 7:43 pm

ticka1 wrote:Severe weather this time? Sorry still can't read the maps as you posted above Dan....
Perhaps for someone in Texas. Since it looks like the air aloft will be cold enough, the system may bring Texas another snow threat. GFS is similar until Tuesday March 2 when it opens up the system as it moves eastward.

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Re: March First Storm- In Like A Lion?

Post by don » Tue Feb 23, 2010 7:51 pm

Yeah it does seem like it shows maybe some wintry precip around here on the backside of the low?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWF_12z/f168.gif

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Re: March First Storm- In Like A Lion?

Post by txsnowmaker » Tue Feb 23, 2010 8:13 pm

Are the models depicting freezing or below freezing surface temperatures for the area during that time?

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Re: March First Storm- In Like A Lion?

Post by srainhoutx » Tue Feb 23, 2010 8:29 pm

All the same players are basiclly still 'on the table' for this storm. AO, NAO are still negative (although not as much) and a strong blocking regime is in place. There is a surge of moisture from the dateline as El Nino relaxes that would suggest the STJ will be involved. As always the eventual track remains uncertain at this range, but 1 more snow event (for Houston) would equal the 1973 analog that has been showing up via the ensembles. We shall see. I do think that there may be a severe side as well as a major winter storm for some folks.
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Re: March First Storm- In Like A Lion?

Post by wxman57 » Tue Feb 23, 2010 8:45 pm

txsnowmaker wrote:Are the models depicting freezing or below freezing surface temperatures for the area during that time?
Glad you asked! Not the GFS, that's for sure. I've been following the GFS forecasts for next Monday and they're nowhere near freezing. Temps in the mid 50s when the precip starts and dropping into the low 50s when it ends. Euro phases the system a little more but careful using those charts to predict when precip might be falling. Looks like a cold rain event for us at this point. We'll have to see what air might be coming down from the north as the upper low moves across. I think it could very easily be colder than the GFS is forecasting, but it doesn't have the look of a SE TX snow event yet.

18Z GFS Meteogram:
Image

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Re: March First Storm- In Like A Lion?

Post by txsnowmaker » Tue Feb 23, 2010 9:00 pm

wxman57 wrote:
txsnowmaker wrote:Are the models depicting freezing or below freezing surface temperatures for the area during that time?
Glad you asked! Not the GFS, that's for sure. I've been following the GFS forecasts for next Monday and they're nowhere near freezing. Temps in the mid 50s when the precip starts and dropping into the low 50s when it ends. Euro phases the system a little more but careful using those charts to predict when precip might be falling. Looks like a cold rain event for us at this point. We'll have to see what air might be coming down from the north as the upper low moves across. I think it could very easily be colder than the GFS is forecasting, but it doesn't have the look of a SE TX snow event yet.

18Z GFS Meteogram:
Image
Got it. Thanks for the answer and the outlook at this point.

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Re: March First Storm- In Like A Lion?

Post by sleetstorm » Tue Feb 23, 2010 9:33 pm

What are the dew points currently predicted to be for March 1st?

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Re: March First Storm- In Like A Lion?

Post by wxman57 » Tue Feb 23, 2010 9:39 pm

sleetstorm wrote:What are the dew points currently predicted to be for March 1st?
See the meteogram I posted on page 1 of this thread. The green line is dew points. GFS is currently predicting dew points around 54F.

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