August Weather Discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Mr. T
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As the calendar turned from June to July, so did the weather. What almost looked to be a 2009 redux turned into quite the wet and much cooler July. Thanks to the 4th wettest July on record, we are now actually above normal for rainfall on the year, despite spending most of this year below normal.

Now that the calendar is turning to August, the weather is right on cue to turn around yet again. The upper ridge that has sat around the SE and brought areas to our east some very hot to record breaking temps while we basked in the wetness that was the rain, has finally decided to retrograde westward and sit over Texas a little bit. A couple of days around 100 are possible for the first few days of the month (especially north), but thanks to afternoon mixing, dewpoints should lower enough (60s) to prevent the heat index from going too crazy.

hot ridge of fire:
Image

Luckily, I don't think the 100 degree heat will last too long. The GFS, its ensembles, and the Euro all agree on weakening the ridge a bit and sliding it a ways north of the region. This should allow for temperatures to fall back to a more normal summertime heat with some rain chances returning to the area by the end of next week thanks to the Gulf opening back up a bit.

A few days of 100 degree heat at this point of the season is certainly nothing unusual. Hopefully models are correct and this hot and dry pattern is only temporary!

Also of note, and probably for the hurricane forum, if the long range Euro solution is correct with upper level pattern after the first week of August, upper ridge may slide back to its position over the SE, opening a possible path for any possible tropical entity to head this way (or Mexico)... This may also really increase rain chances again. This, of course, is just speculation at this point.

Image



Happy August!
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Ptarmigan
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From 1921 to 2009, the average day we first see 100°F in Houston is late July 23rd to be exact on average or July 27th with the median.
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As of 3pm, the temp is 95 at IAH with a dewpoint of 67. That's down 2 degrees from last hour and a west wind at 5. I doubt we will hit 100 today...maybe only 98. I would feel more comfortable with 100 if we had a southwest wind and dewpoints were a tad lower. I just don't think they have made it low enough to pump the temp up. However, we still have a few hours to go of optimal heating before we cool. I can't wait for this miserable summer to be over. Anybody else prefer winter over this mess?
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BoonDog
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Candy Cane wrote:Anybody else prefer winter over this mess?
Raises his hand :D
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tireman4
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BoonDog wrote:
Candy Cane wrote:Anybody else prefer winter over this mess?
Raises his hand :D
Hello...here too...check out my avatar...that should tell you how I feel. It was "oh my goodness" hot today with more to come.
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Mr. T
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tireman4 wrote:
Hello...here too...check out my avatar...that should tell you how I feel. It was "oh my goodness" hot today with more to come.
I didn't think it was that bad, actually. Highs were only in the mid 90s. With dewpoints in the low 60s, the heat index was basically non existant.

Maybe a few degrees warmer the next few days (not too humid, though), before the numbers should begin to creep back down with slight right chances entering into the forecast towards the end of the upcoming work week. Interestingly, GFS MOS guidance suggests 102 and 100 for the next 2 days, but I think that is just a bit too warm. Guidance has been just a bit warm biased towards highs lately (likely because of the high soil moisture still around from the recent wet July)... Anyway, both the GFS and Euro suggest the ridge will begin to weaken across the area with some Gulf moisture trying to enter into the area.

Of course, the concern continues to be with the Euro model as I mentioned in the original post of this thread a few days ago, as it rebuilds heights across the SE again, creating a nice path for a possible Hurricane Colin to head towards somewhere in the Western Gulf. Still plenty of time to watch this, though...
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raises hand add me to the list of liking winter better the summer and even tropical storm season.....
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Hate this HEAT. Is it October yet?
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tireman4
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I have to race ( ok, I am not sure race is the word as to striding...as long as I hydrate, I should be ok) in Humble August 28. I just know at 8 am it will be 80 degrees with 90 percent humidity. Sigh. LOL Please Fall get here.
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URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
354 AM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY...

.WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 70S HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL REACH 105-109 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS THEREFORE
BEEN ISSUED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.

TXZ164-177>179-197>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-041700-
/O.NEW.KHGX.HT.Y.0001.100804T0854Z-100805T0200Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-GRIMES-
HARRIS-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...CLEVELAND...COLDSPRING...
COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...
EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...
HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MISSOURI CITY...
MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...PASADENA...
PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SEALY...
SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...
TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...WINNIE
354 AM CDT WED AUG 4 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
HEAT ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA BY 10AM BEFORE REACHING THE 105-109 DEGREE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH THIS EVENING
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU PLAN TO BE OUTSIDE...AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE OR STRENUOUS
PHYSICAL ACTIVITY. YOUR BODY CAN LOSE UP TO A GALLON OF WATER AN
HOUR THROUGH PERSPIRATION. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS TO AVOID
DEHYDRATION. ALCOHOLIC AND CAFFEINATED BEVERAGES CAN INCREASE THE
RATE OF WATER LOSS IN YOUR BODY...INCREASING THE RISK OF HEAT
EXHAUSTION OR STROKE. WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT...LIGHT-COLORED...LOOSE-
FITTING CLOTHING. WEAR A HAT TO SHIELD YOURSELF FROM THE SUN...
AND USE A SUNSCREEN TO REDUCE POSSIBLE SUNBURN.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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What does next week look like as far as temperatures? Does southeast Texas get a little reprieve from this heat from showers and thunderstorms, whether tropical in nature or not? Or is going to be equally as hot as this week has been so far?
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srainhoutx
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HGX is considering Heat Advisories for tomorrow and Saturday as well...

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
358 AM CDT THU AUG 5 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE MIDDLE 70S...HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE 105-110 RANGE SHOULD
BE COMMON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY
GOES INTO EFFECT WHEN HEAT INDICES OF 108 DEGREES OR HIGHER OCCUR
ON TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

TXZ163-164-176>179-198>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-051700-
/O.CON.KHGX.HT.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-100806T0000Z/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-GRIMES-
HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-MONTGOMERY-POLK-
SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BROOKSHIRE...CLEVELAND...COLDSPRING...COLUMBUS...
CONROE...CORRIGAN...CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...
EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...
HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
358 AM CDT THU AUG 5 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Mr. T
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I'm not sure why there is a heat advisory still in effect. We have not met criteria in most areas as heat index values did not rise to 108 or above today. The only location I see is IAH, and that was only for under an hour
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Mr. T
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Ok, so why did they just extend the heat advisory? lol

Dewpoints have fallen into the upper 60s to low 70s across the area. The heat index is only 103 right now. What is going on? I thought our criteria was above 107. LCH has dropped the advisories, and I'm not sure why HGX hasn't followed.

We aren't seeing anything unusual right now as far as heat is concerned. And with the increase of cloud cover and chance for rain, temperatures have fallen back down to the mid 90s for highs. That is average for this time of year. This is confusing...

I think someone at HGX forgot what summer is like across SE TX
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srainhoutx
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Way North but it's a start...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
755 PM CDT FRI AUG 6 2010

TXZ163-176-070200-
HOUSTON-MADISON-
755 PM CDT FRI AUG 6 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 748 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR CROCKETT TO AUSTONIO TO LOVELADY.
THE STORMS WERE MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...AUSTONIO...MIDWAY...
LOVELADY AND CROCKETT.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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unome
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From NWS Glossary: http://www.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=h

Heat Advisory
Issued within 12 hours of the onset of the following conditions: heat index of at least 105°F but less than 115°F for less than 3 hours per day, or nighttime lows above 80°F for 2 consecutive days.

last advisory posted for Houston: HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL AGAIN REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S...WITH DEW POINTS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES IN THE 104-109 RANGE.

Edit to add this: http://www.weather.gov/om/heat/index.shtml there's a lot of good info on heat/hazards there

Image
Last edited by unome on Sat Aug 07, 2010 10:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Ptarmigan
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I notice a upper level low will be moving inland into Texas over th weekends.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=hgx&gc=1
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wxdata
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Ptarmigan wrote:I notice an upper level low will be moving inland into Texas over th weekends.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/graphicast.php?site=hgx&gc=1
Sitting right over Corpus Christi. Apparently the upper high is still too strong creating subsidence for the system to provide much precipitation.
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Mr. T
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The end of the upcoming work week could be rather wet thanks to a possible developing tropical system heading our way. I'm sure discussion will ramp up about this soon in the hurricane forum

The 0z Euro brings the system westward into W LA at the end of the week. The remnants continue chugging westward and overspread SE TX.
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Mr. T
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unome wrote:From NWS Glossary: http://www.weather.gov/glossary/index.php?letter=h

Heat Advisory
Issued within 12 hours of the onset of the following conditions: heat index of at least 105°F but less than 115°F for less than 3 hours per day, or nighttime lows above 80°F for 2 consecutive days.
btw, that's not HGX criteria. Our criteria is for a heat index of 108 or above. We do not issue excessive heat warnings. Also, we do not have a minimum criteria
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