Give it time. It will.Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:53 amHe didn't really say much about cold air entering Texas tho unless I missed itsambucol wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:38 am Watched Pow Ponder this morning. If I’m not mistaken, he said the Arctic air is coming down and it sounded like the same time frame the models are showing. He is in Texas.
https://youtu.be/-EnVB9IXoAo
December 2021
Me too.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:56 am Yup Pow ponder nailed it with the stratospheric warming event that lead to the arctic outbreak last february, so i definitely trust what he has to say
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I'm sure another Stratwarm will cause the cold to come here eventually this winter.
Warmer SST’s in that area help build a ridge which blocks zonal flow allowing for the jet stream to buckle and form a trough which will send the cold air southward.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:34 pm CPV17 but how does the sea surface temps near Alaska effect our winter? Wouldn't the colder than normal current sea temps help the cold air build in that region?
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The SSTs near Alaska have warmed up latelyCpv17 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:36 pmWarmer SST’s in that area help build a ridge which blocks zonal flow allowing for the jet stream to buckle and form a trough which will send the cold air southward.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 3:34 pm CPV17 but how does the sea surface temps near Alaska effect our winter? Wouldn't the colder than normal current sea temps help the cold air build in that region?
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18z GFS is shoving the cold FASTER compared to 12z
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Barely miss out the snow, but the Temperatures are COLDER compared to 12z.
18z GFS is proof is why you should NEVER give up!
18z GFS is proof is why you should NEVER give up!
You are right.Iceresistance wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 5:03 pm Barely miss out the snow, but the Temperatures are COLDER compared to 12z.
18z GFS is proof is why you should NEVER give up!
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Iceresistance lets hope the GFS continues on this positive trend toward a colder solution
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That’s usually what happens when it’s 10+ days outStratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:52 pm Tonights 00z model runs, stopped them at day 10 (hour 240) CMC on the left and GFS on the right, talk about some crazy model disagreement
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TXweatherman well in this case I only go out as far as 10 days since thats as far out as the CMC goes , just crazy how 2 models can have such different solutions, wonder what each model is picking up on to have such a different outcome
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Stratton20 There is a crazy amount of snow 10 days out on the 0z CMC, mostly along I-40 in Oklahoma (Center of the snowbands)
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500mb pattern is very different. CMC has an Alaska to North Pole ridge. GFS has a stout Low and very low heights in the GOA.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 1:13 am TXweatherman well in this case I only go out as far as 10 days since thats as far out as the CMC goes , just crazy how 2 models can have such different solutions, wonder what each model is picking up on to have such a different outcome
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Volatility is going to continue within the guidance for the next couple of weeks. A lot of atmospheric changes are happening. MJO finally moving out of the COD into colder phase 7, tropical disturbances development in the W PAC after being virtually dead all summer and a Strat Warning event developing within the next 10 days. Keep an eye on the Christmas Holiday period. Into the New Year.
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Not unusual that far out in Wx Fantasyland.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:52 pm Tonights 00z model runs, stopped them at day 10 (hour 240) CMC on the left and GFS on the right, talk about some crazy model disagreement
Wet and unsettled La Nina? Interesting.srainhoutx wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 8:38 am Volatility is going to continue within the guidance for the next couple of weeks. A lot of atmospheric changes are happening. MJO finally moving out of the COD into colder phase 7, tropical disturbances development in the W PAC after being virtually dead all summer and a Strat Warning event developing within the next 10 days. Keep an eye on the Christmas Holiday period. Into the New Year.
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12z GFS tries to have snow in Oklahoma & parts of Northern Texas, but there is too much dryness.
On the Temperature, you can see the DFW Heat Island
On the Temperature, you can see the DFW Heat Island
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We could careless if Northern tx gets snow or not lol we are more focused down here on the houston areaIceresistance wrote: ↑Mon Nov 29, 2021 11:08 am 12z GFS tries to have snow in Oklahoma & parts of Northern Texas, but there is too much dryness.
On the Temperature, you can see the DFW Heat Island
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12z GEFS has a large percentage of Ensemble Members showing more snow in the Southern Plains starting at +318 hours, which is unusual.
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