September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

CPV17 its toon soon to say that
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:26 pm CPV17 its toon soon to say that
Maybe. Models trended in the wrong direction today. Maybe tomorrow they will trend back wet again, hopefully.
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

CPV17 hope they do! I love stormy weather, nothing better than a good old lightning show with some heavy rain😄
Cpv17
Posts: 5234
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Not quite as cool out there this morning but I still managed to get down to 55.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 241133
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
633 AM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

With high pressure remaining in place over the area, another calm
and clear weather day is expected with VFR conditions expected to
persist throughout. Easterly winds near 10 knots will develop this
morning, veering to the southeast during the afternoon and
becoming light and variable overnight. Minimal cloud cover is
anticipated with no cig/vis concerns.

Cady

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 346 AM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021/...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight through Saturday Night]...

The synoptic pattern continues to be dominated by the presence of
surface high pressure over the south-central CONUS with weak ridging
developing aloft. As the surface high jogs further eastward during
the day today, winds will continue to shift gradually to the
southeast. However, wind speeds should remain relatively calm given
the relatively weak pressure gradient present across the area. As a
result, we should only experience a modest increase in temperatures
today as any impacts from WAA should be relatively insignificant.
Afternoon highs will reach the mid 80s at most inland locations,
staying closer to 80 along the coast. Conditions should remain
generally pleasant with dew points hovering in the upper 50s
/ lower 60s, though summer-like humidity will begin its gradual
return to the area as the onshore wind pattern strengthens in the
coming days.

The gradual return to heat and humidity continues on Saturday as
east/southeasterly flow gradually begins to strengthen offshore.
Another slight increase in highs (mid-upper 80s) and lows (near 60
to mid 60s inland, near 70 along the coast) is expected, though
surface dew points around 60 should keep things feeling relatively
pleasant. By Saturday night, the further eastward shift of surface
high pressure and a tightening pressure gradient over
central/eastern TX will allow for a more pronounced onshore flow to
begin to develop.

Cady


.LONG TERM [Sunday through Friday]...

High pressure will be located over the central Appalachians low
pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies. Surface winds
will slowly veer from the E to SE. PWATs remain low, generally
under an inch, so conditions not looking favorable for rain. Fcst
soundings don`t show much in the way of saturation so skies
expected to be partly to mostly sunny. 860 mb temps support
support MaxT values in the upper 80`s. Clouds return Sunday night
as low level moisture begins to deepen. PWATs deepen on Monday
and reach 1.80 inches by Monday afternoon. Weak warm air advection
(WAA) will increase, with gentle lift and weak surface
convergence coupled with the deeper moisture should generate some
showers Monday afternoon into Monday night.

On Tuesday, a robust upper level low over CA will move east into
the desert southwest. As it approaches upper level ridging expands
over South Texas into the western Gulf. Global models are in good
agreement that showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage
but considering the strength and position of the upper level ridge
and the lack of surface convergence, not sure why models are so
aggressive. Yet models are in good agreement with mass fields but
have leaned toward the lower side of guidance until a trigger for
precip is found. That said, a speed max will approach SE TX
Tuesday night into Wednesday and that should help initiate precip
Tues night and Weds. Fcst soundings don`t show much capping on
Wednesday but they do show some very dry air in the 850-700 mb
layer which is troubling. Global models continue to trend wet for
Thursday and forecast profiles look semi saturated and PW values
remain near 1.90 inches. That said, the jet dynamics don`t look
favorable and SE TX will lie in the subsident region of the
jet. Will again temper my enthusiasm with regard to PoPs and lean
toward the lower side of guidance. Conditions will begin to dry on
Friday as PW values decrease to around 1.45 inches and capping
begins to increase in the 850-700 mb layer. High temperatures next
week show a slow warming trend but MaxT values will be strongly
dependent on cloud cover/precip. 850 mb temperatures support
surface values in the upper 80`s on Sunday warming into the lower
90`s by mid/late week. MinT values will warm up again surface dew
points climb back into the 70`s. 43


.MARINE...

High pressure over the eastern US and lower pressures over the
southern Gulf will allow for east winds to persist today and again
on Saturday. The pressure gradient will remain semi-lax and a
light to moderate onshore flow is expected. Pressures will begin
to drop in the lee of the Rockies on Sunday and surface winds will
veer to the southeast. The pressure gradient tightens a little
and wind speeds will gradually increase. Moisture levels will
increase and there will be a chance for precip Monday through
Wednesday. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 87 60 89 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 84 61 85 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 82 73 82 74 85 / 0 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

^In summary, MEH on rain chances next week.
User avatar
tireman4
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 4437
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

00
FXUS64 KHGX 241735
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1235 PM CDT Fri Sep 24 2021

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR throughout, albeit not *completely* SKC everywhere as some
FEW/SCT VFR-level clouds sneak in here and there. E/SE winds to
around 10kts this afternoon become near calm overnight, increasing
again towards mid-day tomorrow.

&&
User avatar
snowman65
Posts: 1191
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:39 am
Location: Orange, Tx
Contact:

So......when is the next front????
Stratton20
Posts: 4225
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

snowman65 your gonna have to wait a while for the next legit fall front, models arent really showing another good shot of cooler air in the next 7 days
User avatar
snowman65
Posts: 1191
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:39 am
Location: Orange, Tx
Contact:

Stratton20 wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:47 am snowman65 your gonna have to wait a while for the next legit fall front, models arent really showing another good shot of cooler air in the next 7 days
wrong answer!🤣🤣
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Bing [Bot] and 78 guests