July 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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Shal it be hot? Shall it be wet? Shall we see tropical mischief?
Samantha550
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This is feeling like the summer that Ike hit. How does the pattern compare?
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srainhoutx
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An awfully strong signal for a potential long track Cape Verde storm. Tis the season and we'll be monitoring...
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Cpv17
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srainhoutx wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 4:14 pm An awfully strong signal for a potential long track Cape Verde storm. Tis the season and we'll be monitoring...
The 12z Euro ends with it being a pretty decent wave around Jamaica. Seems like it stays intact fairly well throughout the entire run. I would imagine if it were to get towards the western Caribbean then it would really take off.
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 5:14 pm
srainhoutx wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 4:14 pm An awfully strong signal for a potential long track Cape Verde storm. Tis the season and we'll be monitoring...
The 12z Euro ends with it being a pretty decent wave around Jamaica. Seems like it stays intact fairly well throughout the entire run. I would imagine if it were to get towards the western Caribbean then it would really take off.
Tracks like an iconic Cape Verde storm.

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DoctorMu
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I don't think I've ever seen a wet pattern like this coming into the July 4th weekend. Not in 30 years in the Brazos Valley. The sea breeze action usually stops around Navasota.
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DoctorMu wrote: Sun Jun 27, 2021 4:55 pm I don't think I've ever seen a wet pattern like this coming into the July 4th weekend. Not in 30 years in the Brazos Valley. The sea breeze action usually stops around Navasota.
What about the summer of 2007? If I recall that was a really wet summer.
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Jun 27, 2021 4:57 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Sun Jun 27, 2021 4:55 pm I don't think I've ever seen a wet pattern like this coming into the July 4th weekend. Not in 30 years in the Brazos Valley. The sea breeze action usually stops around Navasota.
What about the summer of 2007? If I recall that was a really wet summer.
That's a good memory. It was rainy in early July (weak tropical system? There was no named storm in July of 2007), then the rain stopped in late July, August, September. up in CLL.

It rained about 1.6 in in 8 days in 2007. The models have us doubling that this year. We'll see.
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DoctorMu
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If you like a "cool" and wettish first half of July, this Bud's for you.
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srainhoutx
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The end of July Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center suggests cooler than normal and wetter than normal will be the 'theme' .
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5:00 AM AST Thu Jul 1
Location: 9.4°N 48.8°W
Moving: W at 25 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... k#contents
Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM AST Thu Jul 01 2021

The tropical cyclone's cloud pattern became a little better organized overnight, with convective banding features becoming more evident over the western and southwestern portions of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is well-defined to the west of the system, and restricted over the eastern semicircle. The current intensity is set at 35 kt in agreement with Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB, and just slightly above the maximum winds from an earlier scatterometer pass, making the cyclone a tropical storm. Elsa is the earliest-known fifth named storm on record for the Atlantic basin in the satellite era (1966-present), breaking the record formerly held by Edouard on July 6, 2020.

The storm has been accelerating westward overnight, and the initial motion is around 275/22 kt. A strong subtropical ridge is situated to the north of the storm, and this feature should steer the system quickly to the west-northwest for the next 3 days or so. There is significant uncertainty in the track forecast from days 3-5. The ECMWF model turns the cyclone northward after interacting with Hispaniola while the other models such as the GFS, HWRF, and U.K. Met take Elsa across western Cuba and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The official forecast is similar to the previous one, and within the latter suite of guidance. However the discrepancy in the models makes confidence in this track lower than usual.

Some intensification is likely for the next day or two, since Elsa is expected to be in an environment of warm sea-surface temperatures, fairly low vertical wind shear, and high mid-level relative humidity. However, the fast forward motion could result in some decoupling of the low- and higher-level circulation which would limit strengthening. Also, the potential interaction of the storm with the mountainous land masses of the Greater Antilles later in the forecast period could disrupt the circulation somewhat. Therefore the official intensity forecast, like the previous one, is quite conservative and on the lower end of the guidance suite.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning early Friday in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands.

2. Heavy rainfall from the system will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Isolated flash flooding and mudslides are possible.

3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas through early next week. Interests in these areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the forecast.

4. Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts could occur there next week given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 9.4N 48.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 10.3N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 11.7N 56.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 13.2N 61.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 14.9N 66.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 03/1800Z 16.7N 71.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 18.0N 74.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 21.0N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 24.5N 82.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
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jasons2k
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Morning update from Jeff:
Tropical Storm Elsa has formed overnight east of the Windward Islands.

Tropical Storm watches and warnings have been issued for portions of the Windward Islands.

Discussion:
Elsa becomes the earliest “E” storm on record surpassing the record set just last year in 2020 by 5 days. The overall organization of the system has improved overnight with banding features having developed over the west and southwest portion of the circulation and pulses of deep convection. Based on the cloud pattern, there is some degree of ENE/E shear over the system, but the very fast forward speed of 22kts is likely helping to negate this shear somewhat. Elsa appears to be a developing tropical storm with a large circulation envelop.

Track:
A strong sub-tropical ridge of high pressure north of Elsa will force the system W to WNW over the next 48-72 hours crossing the Windward Islands in the next 24-36 hours and then across the eastern Caribbean Sea into the central Caribbean Sea over the weekend. Elsa is already moving fast for a tropical system and the forward speed may increase a bit more over the next 24-48 hours. After 72 hours, the tightly clustered track guidance greatly diverge with the GFS, most of its ensembles, the HWRF and HMON showing a track toward central and western Cuba and the SE/E Gulf of Mexico while the ECMWF turns the system northward east of the Bahamas resulting in a very large guidance spread at days 4-5. The ECWMF is very fast and has Elsa near Hispaniola in just 60-66 hours….which seems unlikely. The western edge of the strong sub-tropical ridge over the SW Atlantic will likely erode some late this weekend into early next week due to a mid level trough over the E/SE US so a slowing of the forward motion and turn of Elsa toward the NW is likely. How sharp a turn and where is the question. Current NHC forecast track favors the leftward guidance cluster and has Elsa near Cuba at days 4-5. It should be stated that the track confidence at days 3-5 is lower than average.

Intensity:
Elsa is in a favorable environment for intensification with warm sea surface temperatures and large moisture envelop and mainly light upper level winds although there is likely some weak E/NE shear over the system. Conditions are unusually favorable this far east so early in the season. Once an inner core is able to form and sustained convection develops intensification is likely and NHC brings Elsa to a 60mph TS before reaching the Windward Island. One negative to intensification may be the very fast forward motion which can at times result in the low level center “outrunning” the mid and upper level centers and resulting in a highly disorganized tropical system. This is especially true in the eastern Caribbean Sea where developing tropical systems tend to struggle. After day 3, land interaction with the larger islands of the Greater Antilles could cause some disruption of the system, but it is uncertain how much if any interaction there may be. Guidance is generally fairly aggressive with Elsa with several models showing a hurricane, but given some of the factors listed above, NHC is on the lower side of the guidance envelop and keep Elsa a tropical storm through the period. It would not be surprising if Elsa were to become a hurricane at some point over the next 5 days.
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Update on the local weather from Jeff. Hoping for a good 10-14 days of dryness after this!!
A weak frontal boundary will approach the area from the north and northeast late Friday and then stall across the region over the upcoming holiday weekend. Moisture levels will pool over the area as a continued influx of Gulf moisture on SE winds will be found south of this boundary. Scattered to numerous clusters of showers and thunderstorms are likely to develop and given the nearly saturated moisture column heavy rainfall is likely. Weak steering winds aloft will also promote slow storm motions and hourly rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour will be possible. Unlike recent days where there was not defined low level focus, there will be a frontal boundary in the region and this could help to focus heavy rainfall over the weekend.

Rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches are expected from Friday-Monday with isolated totals of 4-6 inches and potentially even higher. Main threat is high duration short term rainfall rates and resulting street flooding, although rises on creeks and bayous will be possible should any particular watershed see sustained heavy rainfall or multiple rounds.

Wet weather pattern will continue into early and even mid next week over the region with a height weakness aloft and continued influx of Gulf moisture.
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Jasons2k Unfortunately that probably wont happen, Noaa is favoring July to be another above average month in terms of precip for us, maybe a few days of dry weather but nothing extended
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DoctorMu
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Wow. 5th named Atlantic Basin storm, and a wet July in the Brazos Valley in addition.

When unusual becomes the norm, indeed.
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Here's to 80s and rain until the last week of August. Then it can shut off for Football season and cooler weather.
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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 11:46 am Here's to 80s and rain until the last week of August. Then it can shut off for Football season and cooler weather.
Only 8 weeks to college football season. Let's keep those dang sprinklers OFF for once! :lol:
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DoctorMu wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 10:53 am Wow. 5th named Atlantic Basin storm, and a wet July in the Brazos Valley in addition.

When unusual becomes the norm, indeed.
All this while Canada and the NW is seeing Death Valley type heat. It's pretty wild to say the least.
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12z Euro is bonkers, has a good swath of 4-8”+ inches across SE Texas with a 25 inch bullseye out near San Antonio, someone is going to end up with some serious flooding problems out of this
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 9:51 am Jasons2k Unfortunately that probably wont happen, Noaa is favoring July to be another above average month in terms of precip for us, maybe a few days of dry weather but nothing extended
Not necessarily. The CPC “Outlook” is for the entire month of July. Since the first week-ten days is such a strong signal for cooler and wetter weather with the front, the deficit will likely be too much to overcome regardless if we return to “normal” conditions afterwards.

Same thing for the Pacific Northwest. It’s so hot and dry right now, even if the ridge breaks down, they can’t overcome those statistical extremes within 31 days.

Don’t just look at the map, read the discussion: “The Southern Great Plains are likely to remain wet due to a combination of moisture from the Southwest and the western end of a frontal boundary.”

Basically, they got a pretty easy head start with this monthly outlook. They were gifted a front with a potential cutoff low over Texas in the first week. Anyone playing the odds there on the monthly outlook will say below normal temps and above normal precip.

The wet soils will keep temperatures in check for awhile. However, I would be surprised if we had additional fronts come-down after this one…but as they say, anything can happen. I am cautiously optimistic that we will get a break as it will be harder to drive another front down here and we will move into phases 3 and 4 of the MJO signal, which should keep the Gulf in check as well as we head deeper into the month.

My analysis isn’t calling for a drought to start or anything like that, but I do expect the latter half of the month to be ‘typical’ July weather: hot and an occasional shower or thunderstorm.
Last edited by jasons2k on Thu Jul 01, 2021 3:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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