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jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 5:35 pm NWS is already mentioning the "C" word for next week's system.

Hoping for some decent rains this Friday.

txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 7:10 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 5:35 pm NWS is already mentioning the "C" word for next week's system.

Hoping for some decent rains this Friday.

What is the “c” word?

txsnowmaker wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 7:10 pm

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Apr 21, 2021 5:35 pm NWS is already mentioning the "C" word for next week's system.

Hoping for some decent rains this Friday.

What is the “c” word?

txbear wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:50 am Thanks, don.

Cpv - just looking at HRRR and what's available currently for WRF compared to what HGX is saying in their discussions. It seems to my amateur eye on the forecast sounding for my general area on the west side has it looking close to a capped situation for tomorrow. I've been pegged the past couple of chances of having anywhere from 1-2", but the cap has limited to that to maybe a 0.1 at its very best. Lucy and the football.

Not saying I'm geared up for an outbreak, but rain sure would help take the ease of the sprinklers. Pines around are also looking a bit parched in color.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 2:42 pm Ruh roh - best I could draw on my phone

unome wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 3:05 pm Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 PM EDT Thu Apr 22 2021
...

Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 23 2021 - 12Z Sat Apr 24 2021

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GULF STATES...

There continues to be a strong signal for a heavy rainfall event
developing over eastern Texas and Oklahoma that spreads east
across the Lower Mississippi Valley and the central Gulf Coast
states. PW values build to 1.5"+ (nearing 2 standard deviations
above normal for late April) along the Gulf Coast while continuing
to transport northward into the central U.S.
A low pressure system exiting the Rockies will track across the
southern tier states, lifting a warm front up the Mississippi
Valley while a cold front sweeps in a few hours later. The upper
level jet will be passing overhead and provide divergence
aloft/enhanced vertical motion in the low/mid levels of the
atmosphere. Low-level inflow rises to 40-60 knots (with effective
bulk shear to match), close to the value of the mean 850-400 hPa
wind. Instability will be increasing across the Southern Plains
ahead of the cold front with CAPE values of 1500+ J/Kg supporting
periods of heavy rainfall.

There is some degree of spread on where the maximum values will
occur, but the overall consensus suggests a fairly large area
where 2-4 inches will fall with very isolated maximums of 5-6
inches possible. Although some locations have had several days to
recover from recent soaking rains, rain of this magnitude may
quickly become problematic, thus increasing the threat for flash
flooding. The Slight Risk area was slightly reshaped for this
update, but remains about the same. The Marginal Risk area spans
from eastern Texas to Alabama and from central Oklahoma into the
Midwest. The LCH/Lake Charles LA, SHV/Shreveport LA, and
LIX/Slidell LA forecast offices were consulted in this update.

Roth/Campbell


I'll be happy with 1/2"

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Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 11:42 am I’m not sure what y’all are seeing saying we won’t be getting much rain over the next week or so. Models are showing 2-4” for most of us over the next 10 days.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Thu Apr 22, 2021 5:51 pm My dew point has risen 20 degrees since this morning...the airmass is definitely modifying with the return flow in place now.