April 2021

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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You can see the outline of many of the major highways on the radar scope. That's interesting...
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jasons2k
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Flood Watch
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
936 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-301045-
/O.CON.KHGX.FF.A.0001.210430T0300Z-210502T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Houston-Trinity-Madison-Walker-San Jacinto-Polk-Burleson-Brazos-Washington-Grimes-Montgomery-Northern Liberty-
Including the cities of Shepherd, Cleveland, Groveton, Dayton,
Bryan, Huntsville, Corrigan, Crockett, Liberty, Navasota, Caldwell,
Livingston, Conroe, Brenham, Coldspring, College Station, The
Woodlands, Somerville, Trinity, and Madisonville
936 PM CDT Thu Apr 29 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of southeast Texas, including the following areas, Brazos, Burleson, Grimes, Houston, Madison, Montgomery, Northern Liberty, Polk, San Jacinto, Trinity, Walker and Washington.

* Through Sunday morning

* Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop overnight as a cold front slowly sags southward. A widespread 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected, but training of heavier storms may produce localized areas of 4 to 8 inches of rainfall.

* Flooding of low-lying, poorly draining areas and other vulnerable locations are possible if they are impacted by storms with heavier rainfall rates and amounts. Multiple rounds of these storms would worsen the potential for flooding. Where rain rates are more manageable, previously dry conditions will help reduce concerns for flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to Flash Flooding. Flash Flooding is a very dangerous situation. You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.
Cpv17
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Some of the mesoscale models are going nuts showing potential for 10+” in isolated spots.
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jasons2k
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From Jeff:

Flash Flood Watch has been issued for much of SE TX tonight-Sunday morning.

Afternoon and evening short range model runs continue to suggest a line of slow moving thunderstorms with the potential to produce hourly rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will develop later this evening into Friday morning roughly from Huntsville toward Columbus and then slowly sag southward toward NW and N Harris County in the 500-700am time frame and then toward I-10 in the 700-900am period. Timing could change either direction by a few hours.

Slow storm motions along with increasing potential for cell training and hourly rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour are increasing the threat for street flooding. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches is looking increasingly likely with isolated totals of 4-8 inches and would not rule out a 10 inch maximum somewhere. Amounts in the short range (CAMs guidance) have been increasing this afternoon and evening.

Bayous and creeks will be able to handle rainfall amounts upwards of 5 inches, but totals over that in a short period of time could result in near bankfull conditions on some of the smaller channels.

WPC has upgraded much of the area into a slight risk of flash flooding.
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jasons2k
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Ch 2 Frank B - showed & focused on short-range models showing up to 10" in spots through tomorrow and up to 20" in isolated spots over the weekend.

Ch 11 David P - showed and focused on the Euro model, mostly around 1" with up to 2" in spots through tomorrow, and up to 3-4" in isolated spots through Sunday.
Cpv17
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:41 pm Ch 2 Frank B - showed & focused on short-range models showing up to 10" in spots through tomorrow and up to 20" in isolated spots over the weekend.

Ch 11 David P - showed and focused on the Euro model, mostly around 1" with up to 2" in spots through tomorrow, and up to 3-4" in isolated spots through Sunday.
That’s not a big difference at all lol
davidiowx
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Apr 29, 2021 10:41 pm Ch 2 Frank B - showed & focused on short-range models showing up to 10" in spots through tomorrow and up to 20" in isolated spots over the weekend.

Ch 11 David P - showed and focused on the Euro model, mostly around 1" with up to 2" in spots through tomorrow, and up to 3-4" in isolated spots through Sunday.
Well one of them will be right.. or both in a localized way.
Cromagnum
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20 inches....hah...sure...
Cpv17
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Cromagnum wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 12:00 am 20 inches....hah...sure...
Well the 0z NAM gets kinda close but it’s probably overdone:

Image
Cromagnum
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Early morning booming and bumping on the south side. Cells are expanding but so far the meanest part is to my west.

Image
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don
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Heavy rain has already started here,looking at the radar u am getting really concerned with the possibility of significant street flooding today.Stay weather aware today and this weekend.
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Cpv17
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The 0z Euro has a 25” bullseye just to the west of me. Yikes.
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Katdaddy
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Yep, its time again. Getting some nice soaking rain currently in NW Galveston County. Active weather across SE TX through Sunday morning including the coastal counties. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for all of SE TX including southern portions of Matagorda and Brazoria Counties which are in a severe drought. Most areas will see 2-3” totals through Sunday with isolated 4-8” totals. I would not be surprised to see some higher totals should training of storms develop. The SPC has a large marginal risk area for severe weather across S, Central, and SE TX for Saturday. Its possible higher severe probabilities will be needed in later outlooks. Its time be weather aware again.
Cromagnum
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Glad I don't work inside the beltway. That morning commute looks awful
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jasons2k
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It appears that everyone will receive some much-needed rain over the next couple of days. So far 1.25” here with another heavy shower.
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jasons2k
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Looks like a training band is trying to setup, arcing to the NW from the West Loop and NW from there roughly between I-10 and 290.
cperk
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2.2 inches at my place and still a light sprinkle.
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jasons2k
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From Jeff:

Widespread rainfall continues over the region this morning, but rates have subsided in the last few hours.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches have occurred north of I-10 with isolated amounts of 4-5 inches over northern Waller County and 4-6 inches over portions of Walker County. For the most part the ground has been able to handle the rainfall with flooding confined to mainly streets under the most intense rainfall rates and some minor rural low land flooding along creeks in northern Waller County.

Rainfall will slowly weaken today as air mass has been worked over by the early morning activity.

Attention will shift to tonight into Saturday as the large upper level low over SW TX slowly moves eastward and expect to see additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. Activity tonight into Saturday may focus to the west and southwest of the metro area near Matagorda Bay, but trends will need to be watched.

All bayous and creeks are currently within banks and handling the rainfall well.
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don
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Radar looks wonderful this morning lol :)
Cpv17
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don wrote: Fri Apr 30, 2021 10:40 am Radar looks wonderful this morning lol :)
Yeah it’s nice. I’ve yet to see any real heavy rain. Just a nice light to moderate soaking.
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