I’ve been noticing this the past few days on the models. Last nights 0z run of the GFS looked great and then woke up this morning to crickets on the 6z GFS loldon wrote: ↑Sat Apr 17, 2021 12:03 pm Global models have been consistently showing a potent storm system moving into Texas next Friday.They differ though on how progressive the system will be at this time.A more progressive system would mean less rainfall but a higher chance of severe weather.While a weaker system that's slower would pose more of a flash flood threat which is what the GFS has been showing,while the ICON,CMC, and EURO show a more potent and progressive system more conductive for severe weather.Bears watch as late next week we could have our first significant storm of the Spring season.
April 2021
12z GFS looks very wet with training along the I-10 corridor through Louisiana.
Less than a quarter inch through all 3 days of this so far. What a joke.
Not much on the Euro. GFS looks much better and even then the GFS only has about an inch of rain for areas south of 10 for the next two weeks.
Is this rain evaporating before hitting the ground? Doesnt seem to be much falling compared to radar.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
May's gonna suck, but a beautiful week ahead, then showers on Friday.
Got about 1/2 inch out of the last front. The hail's done a number though on my rain gauge. Time for a new one!
Got about 1/2 inch out of the last front. The hail's done a number though on my rain gauge. Time for a new one!
We better get some rain and storms in May or else we’ll probably be in for a long dry hot summer.
I don’t remember (because last April was so weird/Covid, etc), but was it this cool, this late in April last year?
We had a warm winter last year, but April was a little below normal. Not as cool as this week nor as sustained. This March was definitely a lot cooler. I used far less electricity than 2020 - fewer A/C days.
I'd look at the NWS and TWC long-range forecast, but they didn't get it right all winter.
No doubt. May and October are usually our rainiest months in BCS as the cap (or Death Ridge) breaks and there's still a sizeable temperature gradient with altitude over Texas (w/o Death Ridge).
Sea breeze. Popcorn showers in May. Lots of humidity regardless. The worst is hot, humid, yet no rain.
So much for the sunny second half of the weekend.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Friday/Saturday system is going to be interesting to watch. Looks like the dynamics will be there for someone to receive a decent amount of rain with a possible severe weather threat but it could very well be north of us again.
Increasing chance of severe weather for Friday.
Yep the eastern half of the state could be dealing with a severe weather outbreak if all the ingredients come together. SPC already has us in a risk for severe weather in the extended range.
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough should move eastward across the Southwest on Day
4/Thursday. Low-level moisture return appears likely across parts of
the southern Plains into Day 5/Friday, as lee cyclogenesis occurs
across the southern High Plains ahead of the approaching upper
trough. Run-to-run consistency over the past several runs of the
deterministic ECMWF lends confidence that the shortwave trough
should eject eastward over the southern Plains on Friday. Increasing
low-level moisture to the east of a dryline/cold front and steep
mid-level lapse rates should support at least moderate instability
in a corridor across parts of OK and TX by Friday afternoon. Strong
mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear appear more than
sufficient for organized severe storms, including supercells. As
mid-level height falls/ascent overspread the warm sector, robust
convective development should occur, with at least isolated severe
storms potentially spreading eastward towards southeast TX Friday
evening/night. Confidence in this scenario occurring has increased
enough to include a 15% severe area for Friday.
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Mon Apr 19 2021
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough should move eastward across the Southwest on Day
4/Thursday. Low-level moisture return appears likely across parts of
the southern Plains into Day 5/Friday, as lee cyclogenesis occurs
across the southern High Plains ahead of the approaching upper
trough. Run-to-run consistency over the past several runs of the
deterministic ECMWF lends confidence that the shortwave trough
should eject eastward over the southern Plains on Friday. Increasing
low-level moisture to the east of a dryline/cold front and steep
mid-level lapse rates should support at least moderate instability
in a corridor across parts of OK and TX by Friday afternoon. Strong
mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear appear more than
sufficient for organized severe storms, including supercells. As
mid-level height falls/ascent overspread the warm sector, robust
convective development should occur, with at least isolated severe
storms potentially spreading eastward towards southeast TX Friday
evening/night. Confidence in this scenario occurring has increased
enough to include a 15% severe area for Friday.
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What time does it look like it could end on Saturday ?
Maybe by mid morning Saturday,but it will depend on how progressive the system is.Still too early to know for sure.