February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
869MB
Posts: 148
Joined: Fri Oct 30, 2015 8:44 am
Location: Katy, TX
Contact:

HRRR Sounding 01Z Run - Valid 07Z.png
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5361
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

In response to some friends on S2K:

I'm glad some of y'all are enjoying the snow. I hope we get some on Thursday as a parting shot. It's looking a little better on the HRRR.

In the meantime, I am closely watching temperature trends for the ice storm about to impact SE and East Texas. It's going to be just epic for some folks to the North and especially NE of here. We are right on the edge. A serious demarcation between ice and rain, and thus, the accumulation totals. The HRRR keeps going back and forth between a little ice nuisance and the ice storm apocalypse for me in southern Montgomery County, so it's just waiting and watching the temperature/dew point spread until it starts falling down over here.
User avatar
don
Posts: 2576
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Heights
Contact:

FWIW the 0z GFS looks similar to the 0z NAM showing heavy freezing rain down to I-10. I don't like how low the dewpoint still is,when rain starts temps are going to easily fall below freezing unless the dewpoint starts to rise over the next several hours.
Attachments
Screenshot_2021-02-16 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png
Cpv17
Posts: 5235
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

don wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:05 pm FWIW the 0z GFS looks similar to the 0z NAM showing heavy freezing rain down to I-10. I don't like how low the dewpoint still is,when rain starts temps are going to easily fall below freezing unless the dewpoint starts to rise over the next several hours.
My dew point is 22° here temp is 29°.
megsy
Posts: 19
Joined: Thu Feb 03, 2011 10:26 pm
Location: South Katy
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:04 pm
don wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:05 pm FWIW the 0z GFS looks similar to the 0z NAM showing heavy freezing rain down to I-10. I don't like how low the dewpoint still is,when rain starts temps are going to easily fall below freezing unless the dewpoint starts to rise over the next several hours.
My dew point is 22° here temp is 29°.
22 here too (was at 19 a couple hours ago) and temp at 32.
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3438
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

Hey everyone, been a busy couple of days. How is everyone doing? I hope those without power have found ways to stay warm! We just need to get through Thursday and we should be in the clear.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
Sloth
Posts: 8
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2021 6:05 pm
Contact:

Andrew wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:40 pm Hey everyone, been a busy couple of days. How is everyone doing? I hope those without power have found ways to stay warm! We just need to get through Thursday and we should be in the clear.
Doing good. Making al pastor tacos in the backyard. Electricity is on, but I'll take no chances to miss a warm meal once the power goes out again :D
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5361
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

The coast has warmed significantly. Look at Galveston and Bolivar - in the 40's, while areas to the NW are below freezing. As the low deepens, the temperature gradient will deepen too.
Last edited by jasons2k on Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
tsb2107
Posts: 26
Joined: Fri Feb 04, 2011 12:41 am
Location: Spring
Contact:

jasons2k wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:21 am The coast has warmed significantly. Look at Galveston and Bolivar - in the 40's, while areas to the NW are below freezing. As the low deepens, the temperature gradient will deepen.
Spring here...does this mean a small window for freezing rain for the northern parts of the county?
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5361
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

tsb2107 wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:28 am
jasons2k wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:21 am The coast has warmed significantly. Look at Galveston and Bolivar - in the 40's, while areas to the NW are below freezing. As the low deepens, the temperature gradient will deepen.
Spring here...does this mean a small window for freezing rain for the northern parts of the county?
If you mean Harris county, it depends on how far east or west you are. The line is generally along 59, but with the low where it is, it has a steep arc to it.
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5361
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Pretty amazing..steep temp gradient already
Attachments
Screen Shot 2021-02-17 at 12.37.26 AM.png
tsb2107
Posts: 26
Joined: Fri Feb 04, 2011 12:41 am
Location: Spring
Contact:

Been holding steady at 34 for the last couple of hours.
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3438
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

Sloth wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:00 am
Andrew wrote: Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:40 pm Hey everyone, been a busy couple of days. How is everyone doing? I hope those without power have found ways to stay warm! We just need to get through Thursday and we should be in the clear.
Doing good. Making al pastor tacos in the backyard. Electricity is on, but I'll take no chances to miss a warm meal once the power goes out again :D
Glad you are doing well Sloth. Get your grub on haha. Hopefully, we will be closer to normal this weekend.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
Andrew
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 3438
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:46 pm
Location: North-West Houston
Contact:

Sitting at 33/32 here NW of the loop. Dewpoints have risen several degrees. Looks like I will be right on the line of freezing rain versus cold rain.
For Your Infinite Source For All Things Weather Visit Our Facebook
User avatar
DoctorMu
Posts: 5648
Joined: Sun Jun 28, 2015 11:58 am
Location: College Station
Contact:

25 degrees. Freezing rain, sleet, snow mix. Hello black ice!

Rolling blackouts continue.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5361
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

DoctorMu wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 1:41 am 25 degrees. Freezing rain, sleet, snow mix. Help black one!

Rolling blackouts continue.
And so it begins - good luck. 32.2 here, dew point 25. The gap is closing...
User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 5361
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Power out
User avatar
snowman65
Posts: 1191
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 6:39 am
Location: Orange, Tx
Contact:

I don't know about everyone else but I'm ready to close the books on this past 4 days.
BlueJay
Posts: 938
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 10:47 am
Location: Alden Bridge-The Woodlands, Texas
Contact:

snowman65 wrote: Wed Feb 17, 2021 7:34 am I don't know about everyone else but I'm ready to close the books on this past 4 days.
Me Too!
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

I thought I'd NEVER say this...but...is it summer yet?
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Ahrefs [Bot], Amazon [Bot], Bing [Bot] and 90 guests